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Drought events have cost the U.S. nearly $245 billion since 1980, with costs ranging from $2 to $44 billion in any given year. However, these socio-economic losses are not the only impacts of drought. Ecosystems, fish, wildlife, and plants also suffer, and these types of drought impacts are becoming more commonplace. Further, ecosystems that recover from drought are now doing so under different climate conditions than they have experienced in the past few centuries. As temperature and precipitation patterns change, “transformational drought”, or drought events that can permanently and irreversibly alter ecosystems – such as forests converting to grasslands – are a growing threat. This type of drought has cascading...
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Changing climate in the “Ridge-to-Reef" (R2R) and “Icefield-to-Ocean" (I2O) ecosystems of Hawai‘i and Southeast Alaska is expected to influence freshwater resources, extreme precipitation events, intensity of storms, and drought. Changes in these regions will not be uniform, rather they will depend on elevation and watershed location due to their steep-gradient terrains. A better understanding of expected future climate conditions in these regions is essential for natural resource managers to make informed climate adaptation decisions amid a changing environment. The Pacific Islands and Alaska Climate Adaptation Science Centers (PI and AK CASCs) are uniquely positioned to address these issues as they have previously...
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Steep, mountainous watersheds, dramatic climate gradients, and tight links between the land and sea are common features of both the Pacific Islands and Southeast Alaska. In these "ridge-to-reef" and “icefield-to-ocean" ecosystems, environmental changes that occur at higher elevations have downstream impacts on the waters below. Today, these two ecosystems are undergoing changes in climate that are significantly impacting the terrestrial, freshwater, and coastal ecosystems that communities rely on for food, water, recreation, and tourism. For example, changing weather patterns are leading to more frequent and severe extreme storms, atmospheric rivers, droughts, and heat waves. Communities in both regions have deep...
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Wildfires are a natural occurrence in interior Alaska’s boreal forest. There is extreme variability in the severity of the wildfire season in this region. A single year in which more than one million acres of forest burns can be followed by several years of low to moderate fire activity. In addition, fires in high latitude zones appear to be responding to changes in climate. Warmer temperatures rapidly cure understory fuels, such as fast-drying beds of mosses, lichens, and shrubs, which lie beneath highly flammable conifer trees. Managing such variability is challenging in light of both changing climate conditions and the fact that planning activities require sufficient advance warning. The goal of this project...
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Forecasting fires in Alaska are, like anywhere else, “wicked problems” as wildfires arise from complex, climatically-driven social-environmental systems. However, given Alaska’s unique human and environmental histories and rapidly changing climate, the region features a combination of factors that may not exist anywhere else in the network. A useful fire synthesis for Alaska must, at the same time, therefore advance understanding of a) the dynamics of and responses to future wildfire, and b)management planning for and adaptation to those projected changes. Through existing research-management collaborations, the Alaska CASC has iteratively refined its approach to actionable (both by fire managers and agency planners)...
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Snow avalanches alter mountain environments and have both beneficial and harmful effects on wildlife. Avalanches can benefit wildlife by creating open areas for grazing but can also be deadly when animals are buried in avalanche debris. Avalanches pose high risks to mountain goats because they inhabit rugged and steep terrain, but the actual impacts of avalanches on mountain goats remain unknown.  The goal of this project is to understand how avalanches impact mountain goat habitat and mortality in the Coast Mountains of southeast Alaska. The research team will use long-term data collected from 434 mountain goats outfitted with GPS collars from 2005 to 2022 and avalanche hazard maps to understand how mountain...
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In the last decade, the annual area burned by wildfires in Alaska has doubled relative to any of the previous four decades, and the current frequency of fire is unprecedented over the past 1,200 years. Wildland fires are one of the main contributors to long-term changes in the structure and function of boreal and subarctic ecosystems. Although fire is a necessary component of regulating these ecosystems, it also poses a hazard to humans when uncontrolled. Currently, fire managers use the Fire Behavior Prediction Calculator to perform calculations that can assist in field management of fires, but the only version of this tool that is available depends on network access, which poses a significant limitation for...
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Suicide Basin is a glacier-fed lake that branches off Mendenhall Glacier in Juneau, Alaska. Since 2011, Suicide Basin has been collecting melt- and rainwater each summer, creating a temporary glacier-dammed lake. Water that accumulates typically gets released through channels that run beneath the glacier. These channels are normally blocked by ice, but if the water pressure gets too high the channel breaks open, rapidly draining the basin in what is known as an “outburst flood”. In past years, these events have led to flooding along Mendenhall Lake and Mendenhall River in the most heavily populated neighborhood of Juneau. Because of the threats posed to infrastructure in the Mendenhall Valley, it is critical that...
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Major floods in Southeast Alaska and Hawaiʻi that potentially threaten life, property, and culturally significant resources and ecosystems are caused by mechanisms related to intense precipitation for both locations as well as snow melt-based processes for Alaska. Small, high-gradient, and heavily vegetated watersheds with direct contribution to the ocean are common in both locations. To understand how climate change may affect flooding in these regions, an analysis of the underlying mechanisms that cause flooding is needed. The scope of this study includes an analysis of annual peak-streamflow records from long-term streamgages in Southeast Alaska and Hawaiʻi to determine whether the main flood-producing mechanisms...
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In Alaska, extreme climate events such as very warm days, very cold days, and intense storms can have a range of impacts, from damaging infrastructure to disrupting the tourism economy. For example, in 2013, a colder than normal spring led to late ice break-up and rapid thaw, causing massive flooding along the Yukon River that displaced roughly 500 residents in a single town. Meanwhile, in Denali, cold May temperatures delayed openings for some tourist-related businesses. Previous work has identified which atmospheric circulation patterns are associated with extreme events, information which can help refine forecasts and downscale future climate projections. The goal of this project is to test whether these patterns...
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Ongoing climate change is impacting areas of snow and ice in high latitudes and high elevation areas and is thus anticipated to change the frequency and magnitude of snow and ice related hazards. In Alaska, snow avalanches are the deadliest natural hazard, and they affect a large portion of the state, significantly impacting the natural landscape, the built environment, and public safety. As climate warming continues, it is expected that Alaska’s vulnerability to avalanche hazards will also continue to increase. Currently, there is limited public awareness and available information to support adaptation, mitigation and preparedness efforts for these hazards. The goal of this project is to improve understanding...
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Coastal flooding and erosion caused by storms and sea-level rise threaten infrastructure and public safety in Alaska Native communities. Though the problem is well known, there are few tools that can assess local vulnerability to coastal flood hazards. Even fewer tools can be customized with specific community information to support local adaptation planning. The main goal of this project is to use the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) platform to co-produce customized local flood hazard maps and online tools to support the development of culturally-appropriate and cost-efficient adaptation strategies in Alaska. The project team will work with federal, state, and local community representatives to understand...
Abstract (from Forests): Research Highlights: Flammability of wildland fuels is a key factor influencing risk-based decisions related to preparedness, response, and safety in Alaska. However, without effective measures of current and expected flammability, the expected likelihood of active and problematic wildfires in the future is difficult to assess and prepare for. This study evaluates the effectiveness of diverse indices to capture high-risk fires. Indicators of drought and atmospheric drivers are assessed along with the operational Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS). Background and Objectives: In this study, 13 different indicators of atmospheric conditions, fuel moisture, and flammability are...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
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Alaska is an ecologically, commercially, and recreationally diverse state, providing value to people and terrestrial and aquatic species alike. Presently, Alaska is experiencing climatic change faster than any other area of the United States, but across the state, comprehensive environmental monitoring is logistically difficult and expensive. For instance, only about 1% of U.S Geological Survey (USGS) stream gages are in Alaska, and only about 50% of those gages measure water temperature, an important climate change indicator. In this study, predictive models are being used to map stream temperatures under current and future climate scenarios across the Yukon and Kuskokwim River basins (YKRB) at the stream reach...
Abstract (from Earth Interactions): Parts of southeast Alaska experienced record drought in 2019, followed by record daily precipitation in late 2020 with substantial impacts to human health and safety, energy resources, and fisheries. To help ascertain whether these types of events can be expected more frequently, this study investigated observed trends and projected changes of hydroclimatic extremes indices across southeast Alaska, including measures of precipitation variability, seasonality, magnitude, and type. Observations indicated mixed tendencies of interannual precipitation variability, but there were consistent trends toward warmer and wetter conditions. Projected changes were assessed using dynamically...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Abstract (from RMetS): Synoptic‐scale patterns associated with daily temperature and precipitation extremes in Alaska are identified and evaluated for daily variability in order to understand consistency in forcing mechanisms associated with extreme events as well as the tendency for each pattern to produce an extreme event. Daily station data at five locations for the 29‐year period from 1982 to 2010 are used. The widely recognized ClimDex indices are used to identify extreme high temperature, low temperature, and single‐day precipitation events. Pressure patterns during extreme events are evaluated seasonally for summer (JJA) and winter (DJF) at mean sea level pressure, 700 and 500‐hPa geopotential heights. Temperature...
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The observed rate of warming in many National Park Service (NPS) lands in Alaska has accelerated soil subsidence and increased landslide frequency, thereby threatening public access, subsistence activities and infrastructure in NPS regions. Areas most affected by this change are along the Denali Park Road, the proposed Ambler Road through Gates of the Arctic National Park and Preserve, and the McCarthy Road in Wrangell – St. Elias National Park and Preserve. In light of this, resource managers need highly accurate, localized climate information to assess and plan for future landslide hazards. This project addresses concerns and management implications in these focus areas with emerging issues that have been outlined...
    map background search result map search result map Improving Forecasts of Glacier Outburst Flood Events Characterizing Variability in the Drivers of Extreme Climate Events in Alaska Projecting Future Wildfire Activity in Alaska’s Boreal Forest State of the Science Synthesis on Transformational Drought: Understanding Drought’s Potential to Transform Ecosystems Across the Country Assessing the Risk to National Park Service Lands in Alaska Imposed by Rapidly Warming Temperatures Future Changes in Snow Avalanches in Southern Alaska Climate Vulnerability of Aquatic Species to Changing Stream Temperatures and Wildfire Across the Yukon and Kuskokwim River Basins, Alaska Future of Fire in Alaska: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate Translating Existing Model Results to Aid in Resource Management Planning for Future Precipitation Extremes in Hawai‘i and Southeast Alaska Characterization of Flood-Producing Mechanisms in Watersheds with a High-Elevation Area in Southeast Alaska and Hawaiʻi A Mobile Fire Behavior Prediction Calculator to Inform Fire Management in Alaska Building a Coastal Flood Hazard Assessment and Adaptation Strategy with At-Risk Communities of Alaska Evaluating How Snow Avalanches Impact Mountain Goat Populations in Southeast Alaska Understanding Ridge-to-Reef and Icefield-to-Ocean Ecosystem Function in a Changing Climate Improving Forecasts of Glacier Outburst Flood Events Evaluating How Snow Avalanches Impact Mountain Goat Populations in Southeast Alaska Projecting Future Wildfire Activity in Alaska’s Boreal Forest Assessing the Risk to National Park Service Lands in Alaska Imposed by Rapidly Warming Temperatures Climate Vulnerability of Aquatic Species to Changing Stream Temperatures and Wildfire Across the Yukon and Kuskokwim River Basins, Alaska Characterizing Variability in the Drivers of Extreme Climate Events in Alaska Future Changes in Snow Avalanches in Southern Alaska Future of Fire in Alaska: Towards a National Synthesis of Wildland Fire Under a Changing Climate A Mobile Fire Behavior Prediction Calculator to Inform Fire Management in Alaska Building a Coastal Flood Hazard Assessment and Adaptation Strategy with At-Risk Communities of Alaska Translating Existing Model Results to Aid in Resource Management Planning for Future Precipitation Extremes in Hawai‘i and Southeast Alaska Characterization of Flood-Producing Mechanisms in Watersheds with a High-Elevation Area in Southeast Alaska and Hawaiʻi Understanding Ridge-to-Reef and Icefield-to-Ocean Ecosystem Function in a Changing Climate State of the Science Synthesis on Transformational Drought: Understanding Drought’s Potential to Transform Ecosystems Across the Country