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Conserving a network of representative physical environments is a strategy that could conserve species both now and into the future, while allowing them to move in response to the climate. The key to implementing such a strategy is to define the physical environments in a way that is maximally relevant to species. We created comprehensive maps of geology, elevation zones, and landforms for the Eastern U.S. and then examined the relationships between these factors and 3434 rare species at 85,613 locations. Based on an index of importance derived from the number of species samples and an index of the percent above expected that a species was found on a feature, most species showed strong preferences for specific settings:...
The cascade of uncertainty that underscores climate impact assessments of regional hydrology undermines their value for long-term water resources planning and management. This study presents a statistical framework that quantifies and propagates the uncertainties of hydrologic model response through projections of future streamflow under climate change. Different sources of hydrologic model uncertainty are accounted for using Bayesian modeling. The distribution of model residuals is formally characterized to quantify predictive skill, and Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling is used to infer the posterior distributions of both hydrologic and error model parameters. Parameter and residual error uncertainties are integrated...
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Throughout the Caribbean, conservation is ecologically, politically, and sociallychallenging due to a number of factors including globalization, climate change, loss ofbiodiversity, and the spread of invasive species. Relationships between organizations andinstitutions that govern the region’s natural and cultural resources are key to conservationsuccess as partners work to implement plans to meet science, capacity, and informationneeds. However, the complex challenges involved in conservation work and tenuous relationshipsamong organizations can result in a “knowing–doing gap”. Empirical evidencefrom 130 Caribbean conservation organizations indicates that barriers to bridging this gapare lack of information and...
Studies of multiple taxa across broad-scales suggest that species distributions are shifting poleward in response to global climate change. Recognizing the influence of distribution shifts on population indices will be an important part of interpreting trends within management units because current practice often assumes that changes in local populations reflect local habitat conditions. However, the individual- and population-level processes that drive distribution shifts may occur across a large, regional scale and have little to do with the habitats within the management unit. We examined the latitudinal center of abundance for the winter distributions of six western North America raptor species using Christmas...
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This study quantitatively explores whether land cover changes have a substantive impact on simulated streamflow within the tropical island setting of Puerto Rico. The Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) was used to compare streamflow simulations based on five static parameterizations of land cover with those based on dynamically varying parameters derived from four land cover scenes for the period 1953-2012. The PRMS simulations based on static land cover illustrated consistent differences in simulated streamflow across the island. It was determined that the scale of the analysis makes a difference: large regions with localized areas that have undergone dramatic land cover change may show negligible difference...
How climate constrains species’ distributions through time and space is an important question in the context of conservation planning for climate change. Despite increasing awareness of the need to incorporate mechanism into species distribution models (SDMs), mechanistic modeling of endotherm distributions remains limited in this literature. Using the American pika (Ochotona princeps) as an example, we present a framework whereby mechanism can be incorporated into endotherm SDMs. Pika distribution has repeatedly been found to be constrained by warm temperatures, so we used Niche Mapper, a mechanistic heat-balance model, to convert macroclimate data to pika-specific surface activity time in summer across the western...
Alien grass invasions in arid and semi-arid ecosystems are resulting in grass-fire cycles and ecosystem-level transformations that severely diminish ecosystem services. Our capacity to address the rapid and complex changes occurring in these ecosystems can be enhanced by developing an understanding of the environmental factors and ecosystem attributes that determine resilience of native ecosystems to stress and disturbance, and resistance to invasion. Cold desert shrublands occur over strong environmental gradients and exhibit significant differences in resilience and resistance. They provide an excellent opportunity to increase our understanding of these concepts. Herein, we examine a series of linked questions...
Groundwater dependent ecosystems (GDEs) rely on near-surface groundwater. These systems are receiving more attention with rising air temperature, prolonged drought, and where groundwater pumping captures natural groundwater discharge for anthropogenic use. Phreatophyte shrublands, meadows, and riparian areas are GDEs that provide critical habitat for many sensitive species, especially in arid and semi-arid environments. While GDEs are vital for ecosystem services and function, their long-term (i.e. ~ 30 years) spatial and temporal variability is poorly understood with respect to local and regional scale climate, groundwater, and rangeland management. In this work, we compute time series of NDVI derived from sensors...
Integration of conservation partnerships across geographic, biological, and administrative boundaries is increasingly relevant because drivers of change, such as climate shifts, transcend these boundaries. We explored successes and challenges of established conservation programs that span multiple watersheds and consider both social and ecological concerns. We asked representatives from a diverse set of 11 broad-extent conservation partnerships in 29 countries 17 questions that pertained to launching and maintaining partnerships for broad-extent conservation, specifying ultimate management objectives, and implementation and learning. Partnerships invested more funds in implementing conservation actions than any...
Wind erosion and aeolian transport processes are under studied compared to rainfall-induced erosion and sediment transport on burned landscapes. Post-fire wind erosion studies have predominantly focused on near-surface sediment transport and associated impacts such as on-site soil loss and site fertility. Downwind impacts, including air quality degradation and deposition of dust or contaminants, are also likely post-fire effects; however, quantitative field measurements of post-fire dust emissions are needed for assessment of these downwind risks. A wind erosion monitoring system was installed immediately following a desert sagebrush and grass wildfire in southeastern Idaho, USA to measure wind erosion from the burned...
Precipitation amount and seasonal timing determine the duration and distribution of water available for plant and microbial activity in the cold desert sagebrush steppe. In this study, we sought to determine if a sustained shift in the amount and timing of precipitation would affect soil microbial diversity, community composition, and soil carbon (C) storage. Field plots were irrigated (+200 mm) during the dormant or growing-season for 17 years. Microbial community responses were assessed over the course of a year at two depths (15–20 cm, 95–100 cm) by terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism (T-RFLP), along with co-occurring changes in plant cover and edaphic properties. Bacterial richness, Shannon Weaver...
map background search result map search result map THE EFFECTS OF CHANGING LAND COVER ON STREAMFLOW SIMULATION IN PUERTO RICO Boundary Organizations as an Approach to Overcoming Science-Delivery Barriers in Landscape Conservation: A Caribbean Case Study THE EFFECTS OF CHANGING LAND COVER ON STREAMFLOW SIMULATION IN PUERTO RICO Boundary Organizations as an Approach to Overcoming Science-Delivery Barriers in Landscape Conservation: A Caribbean Case Study