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The Incredible HALK: Borrowing Data for Age Assignment Understanding age and growth are important for fisheries science and management; however, age data are not routinely collected for many populations. We propose and test a method of borrowing age–length data across increasingly broader spatiotemporal levels to create a hierarchical age–length key (HALK). We assessed this method by comparing growth and mortality metrics to those estimated from lake–year age–length keys ages using seven common freshwater fish species across the upper Midwestern United States. Levels used for data borrowing began most specifically by borrowing within lake across time and increased in breadth to include data within the Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC) 10 watershed, HUC8 watershed, Level III... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Potential Effects of Climate Change on Emydoidea blandingii (Blanding’s Turtle) Emydoidea blandingii (Holbrook, 1838; Blanding’s turtles) are a species of medium-sized, long-lived, semiaquatic, freshwater turtles with a wide distribution across the northern and eastern United States and southern Canada. They have an annual activity cycle consisting of late autumn and winter overwintering and spring emergence, spring movement and foraging, spring and summer nesting, and summer and autumn foraging and nonnesting movement. In response to changes in average and extreme temperatures, Blanding’s turtles are likely to experience increased physiological stress and reduced reproductive success. Variability in precipitation may affect the availability of freshwater habitats for overwintering, shelter,... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Data In Support Of Accounting For Spatio-Temporal Variation In Catachability In Joint Species Distribution Models Fish data on six species (black crappie (Pomoxis nigromaculatus), bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus), largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides), northern pike (Esox lucius), walleye (Sander vitreus), and yellow perch (perca flavescens)) caught in gill nets and trap nets between 2000 and 2019 during Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (MNDNR) fisheries surveys done in the months of June through September. Fish catch and effort (number of nets set overnight) comes from over 1,000 Minnesota lakes. In addition to fisheries data, we included additional information concerning lake characteristics, predicted water temperature, and watershed land use. Lake area and maximum depth were obtained from MNDNR public databases.... Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service Name in a changing climate: Research partnership supports Tribal stewardship of name In response to concerns from Tribal leadership in the Midwest region, a Midwest Climate Adaptation Science Center (MWCASC) and Great Lakes Indian Fish and Wildlife Commission (GLIFWC) team explored how climate change may affect name (also known as lake sturgeon). This project investigated potential impacts and what can be done to help name adapt to a changing climate. Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Final Report: Improving the Midwest Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Tool to Support Regional Climate Adaptation We updated an existing online climate change vulnerability dashboard called the Watershed-based Midwest Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Tool (https://www.usgs.gov/apps/CC_Vulnerability/). The dashboard combined 15 climate change impact metrics (five each from three categories: hydrology, precipitation, and temperature) and five metrics representing each watershed's capacity to adapt to changing conditions to create a vulnerability score for 360 watersheds across the Midwest. The vulnerability assessment can be customized for any species, habitat, or other resource of interest by users by adjusting the weighting given to each of the metrics. The updates include greater representation of the range of potential... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Predicting climate change impacts on poikilotherms using physiologically guided species abundance models Poikilothermic animals comprise most species on Earth and are especially sensitive to changes in environmental temperatures. Species conservation in a changing climate relies upon predictions of species responses to future conditions, yet predicting species responses to climate change when temperatures exceed the bounds of observed data is fraught with challenges. We present a physiologically guided abundance (PGA) model that combines observations of species abundance and environmental conditions with laboratory-derived data on the physiological response of poikilotherms to temperature to predict species geographical distributions and abundance in response to climate change. The model incorporates uncertainty in... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Survival of a polymorphic species in seasonally snow-covered forests Color polymorphism is an adaptive strategy in which a species exhibits multiple color phenotypes in a population. Often, phenotypes are variably suited to different environmental conditions which may buffer the population against variable conditions. Modern climate change is creating novel selective pressures for many species, especially in winter habitats. Few studies have quantified the benefits of polymorphism for allowing species to cope with climate-induced environmental change, particularly for species with more cryptic differences between morphs. We investigated how color polymorphism mediates selective pressures in ruffed grouse Bonasa umbellus, a winter-adapted bird species of North American forests. Ruffed... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Accounting for spatiotemporal sampling variation in joint species distribution models Estimating relative abundance is critical for informing conservation and management efforts and for making inferences about the effects of environmental change on populations. Freshwater fisheries span large geographic regions, occupy diverse habitats and consist of varying species assemblages. Monitoring schemes used to sample these diverse populations often result in populations being sampled at different times and under different environmental conditions. Varying sampling conditions can bias estimates of abundance when compared across time, location and species, and properly accounting for these biases is critical for making inferences. We develop a joint species distribution model (JSDM) that accounts for varying... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation It’s complicated and it depends: A review of the effects of ecosystem changes on Walleye and Yellow Perch Populations in North America Walleye (Sander vitreus) and Yellow Perch (Perca flavescens) are culturally, economically, and ecologically significant fish species in North America that are affected by drivers of global change. Here, we review and synthesize the published literature documenting the effects of ecosystem changes on Walleye and Yellow Perch. We focus on four drivers: climate (including temperature and precipitation), aquatic invasive species, land use and nutrient loading, and water clarity. We identified 1232 tests from 370 papers, split evenly between Walleye (N=613) and Yellow Perch (N=620). Climate was the most frequently studied driver (N=572) and growth/condition was the most frequently studied response (N=297). The most commonly... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Potential Effects of Climate Change on Ambystoma barbouri (Streamside Salamander) Ambystoma barbouri (streamside salamanders) are stream-breeding mole salamanders that rely on seasonally intermittent, fishless streams for egg and larval development but are primarily fossorial as adults. Climate-driven changes are likely to alter streamflow duration, peak, and seasonality within the range of A. barbouri, reducing reproductive habitat and larval survival. Although future changes in precipitation volume within the geographic range of A. barbouri are uncertain, in the next 90 years, increasing temperatures will likely increase potential evapotranspiration. Decreasing ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration will likely shorten flow duration for intermittent streams, potentially causing... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Ultraviolet (UV) Radiation in Midwest Lakes: Its Impact on Fish and Fisheries The spread of invasive mussels (Dreissena spp.) has increased water clarity in many Midwest lakes, as the mussels filter algae out of the water. Fish are at greater risk of damage from UV radiation in clearer water, and will move deeper, hide under structure, and take refuge under ice to avoid harm. However, warming temperatures from climate change are reducing ice cover on many lakes, threatening early life stages of species like Cisco with increased exposure to UV radiation. Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Potential Effects of Climate Change on Acipenser fulvescens (Lake Sturgeon) Acipenser fulvescens (Rafinesque, 1817; lake sturgeon) are the only sturgeon species native to the Great Lakes region and are threatened across most of their range. They are historically vulnerable because of overfishing and habitat fragmentation with the potential for climate change acting as an increasing stressor in the future. Lake sturgeon span multiple habitats during their long lifespans, including high gradient streams, nearshore areas, and deep rivers and lakes. Climate change is projected to strongly affect the suitability of these habitats through increasing precipitation and temperatures and decreasing ice cover and snowmelt. Changes in flow timing and amount can affect movement to spawning and nursery... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation A Review of Data-Driven Discovery for Dynamic Systems Many real-world scientific processes are governed by complex non-linear dynamic systems that can be represented by differential equations. Recently, there has been an increased interest in learning, or discovering, the forms of the equations driving these complex non-linear dynamic systems using data-driven approaches. In this paper, we review the current literature on data-driven discovery for dynamic systems. We provide a categorisation to the different approaches for data-driven discovery and a unified mathematical framework to show the relationship between the approaches. Importantly, we discuss the role of statistics in the data-driven discovery field, describe a possible approach by which the problem can be... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Response of natural tree regeneration to climate adaptation treatments in Pinus resinosa-dominated forests Uncertainty and emerging threats associated with climate change necessitate the development of new approaches for managing forest ecosystems. To address this need the Adaptive Silviculture for Climate Change (ASCC) Network was established to examine the efficacy of three climate adaptation strategies in important forest types across North America: 1) resistance to change by increasing overstory tree health through reduced inter-tree competition, 2) resilience by creating conditions that allow change within the natural range of variability while encouraging greater abundance of native species considered suitable for projected future climate, and 3) transition which involves actively facilitating systems to have a... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation BioLake: A first assessment of lake temperature-derived bioclimatic predictors for aquatic invasive species Aquatic invasive species (AIS) present major ecological and economic challenges globally, endangering ecosystems and human livelihoods. Managers and policy makers thus need tools to predict invasion risk and prioritize species and areas of concern, and they often use native range climate matching to determine whether a species could persist in a new location. However, climate matching for AIS often relies on air temperature rather than water temperature due to a lack of global water temperature data layers, and predictive power of models is seldom evaluated. We developed 12 global lake (water) temperature-derived “BioLake” bioclimatic layers for distribution modeling of aquatic species and compared “climatch” climate... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Daily surface temperatures for 185,549 lakes in the conterminous United States estimated using deep learning (1980–2020) The dataset described here includes estimates of historical (1980–2020) daily surface water temperature, lake metadata, and daily weather conditions for lakes bigger than 4 ha in the conterminous United States (n = 185,549), and also in situ temperature observations for a subset of lakes (n = 12,227). Estimates were generated using a long short-term memory deep learning model and compared to existing process-based and linear regression models. Model training was optimized for prediction on unmonitored lakes through cross-validation that held out lakes to assess generalizability and estimate error. On the held-out lakes with in situ observations, median lake-specific error was 1.24°C, and the overall root mean squared... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Data in Support of Predicting Climate Change Impacts on Poikilotherms Using Physiologically Guided Species Abundance Models Fish catch and effort data for three species caught in gill nets and trap nets between 1988 and 2019 as part of Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (MNDNR) fisheries surveys conducted during the summer and early fall are included from over 1,300 Minnesota lakes. The three fish species included are: bluegill (Lepomis marochirus) a warm-water adapted species, yellow perch (Perca flavescens) a cool-water adapted species, and cisco (Coregonus artedi) a cold-water adapted species. Additional data concerning lake characteristics and surrounding land cover were also included. Mean July lake surface temperature was calculated using simulated daily water temperatures. Watershed land use including agricultural, barren,... Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: ecological modeling, fisheries, freshwater fish, water temperature Phenotypic variation in the molt characteristics of a seasonal coat color-changing species reveals limited resilience to climate change The snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus) possesses a broad suite of adaptations to winter, including a seasonal coat color molt. Recently, climate change has been implicated in the range contraction of snowshoe hares along the southern range boundary. With shortening snow season duration, snowshoe hares are experiencing increased camouflage mismatch with their environment reducing survival. Phenological variation of hare molt at regional scales could facilitate local adaptation in the face of climate change, but the level of variation, especially along the southern range boundary, is unknown. Using a network of trail cameras and historical museum specimens, we (1) developed contemporary and historical molt phenology... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Multi-season climate projections forecast declines in migratory monarch butterflies Climate change poses a unique threat to migratory species as it has the potential to alter environmental conditions at multiple points along a species' migratory route. The eastern migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) has declined markedly over the last few decades, in part due to variation in breeding-season climate. Here, we combined a retrospective, annual-cycle model for the eastern monarch population with climate projections within the spring breeding grounds in eastern Texas and across the summer breeding grounds in the midwestern U.S. and southern Ontario, Canada to evaluate how monarchs are likely to respond to climate change over the next century. Our results reveal that projected... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation Effects of Climate Change on Fish and Wildlife Species in the United States This U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report provides brief syntheses of the direct and indirect effects of climate change to priority species and ecosystems in the United States. Each chapter focuses on changes in climate and related effects to the life cycle, interspecific interactions, and habitats of a fish or wildlife species of conservation concern. These reports are independent species-specific summaries of relevant literature, current and historic climate conditions, and future climate projections. Categories: Publication; Types: Citation 1 2 »