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The spread of invasive mussels (Dreissena spp.) has increased water clarity in many Midwest lakes, as the mussels filter algae out of the water. Fish are at greater risk of damage from UV radiation in clearer water, and will move deeper, hide under structure, and take refuge under ice to avoid harm. However, warming temperatures from climate change are reducing ice cover on many lakes, threatening early life stages of species like Cisco with increased exposure to UV radiation.
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Acipenser fulvescens (Rafinesque, 1817; lake sturgeon) are the only sturgeon species native to the Great Lakes region and are threatened across most of their range. They are historically vulnerable because of overfishing and habitat fragmentation with the potential for climate change acting as an increasing stressor in the future. Lake sturgeon span multiple habitats during their long lifespans, including high gradient streams, nearshore areas, and deep rivers and lakes. Climate change is projected to strongly affect the suitability of these habitats through increasing precipitation and temperatures and decreasing ice cover and snowmelt. Changes in flow timing and amount can affect movement to spawning and nursery...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Many real-world scientific processes are governed by complex non-linear dynamic systems that can be represented by differential equations. Recently, there has been an increased interest in learning, or discovering, the forms of the equations driving these complex non-linear dynamic systems using data-driven approaches. In this paper, we review the current literature on data-driven discovery for dynamic systems. We provide a categorisation to the different approaches for data-driven discovery and a unified mathematical framework to show the relationship between the approaches. Importantly, we discuss the role of statistics in the data-driven discovery field, describe a possible approach by which the problem can be...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Uncertainty and emerging threats associated with climate change necessitate the development of new approaches for managing forest ecosystems. To address this need the Adaptive Silviculture for Climate Change (ASCC) Network was established to examine the efficacy of three climate adaptation strategies in important forest types across North America: 1) resistance to change by increasing overstory tree health through reduced inter-tree competition, 2) resilience by creating conditions that allow change within the natural range of variability while encouraging greater abundance of native species considered suitable for projected future climate, and 3) transition which involves actively facilitating systems to have a...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Aquatic invasive species (AIS) present major ecological and economic challenges globally, endangering ecosystems and human livelihoods. Managers and policy makers thus need tools to predict invasion risk and prioritize species and areas of concern, and they often use native range climate matching to determine whether a species could persist in a new location. However, climate matching for AIS often relies on air temperature rather than water temperature due to a lack of global water temperature data layers, and predictive power of models is seldom evaluated. We developed 12 global lake (water) temperature-derived “BioLake” bioclimatic layers for distribution modeling of aquatic species and compared “climatch” climate...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
The dataset described here includes estimates of historical (1980–2020) daily surface water temperature, lake metadata, and daily weather conditions for lakes bigger than 4 ha in the conterminous United States (n = 185,549), and also in situ temperature observations for a subset of lakes (n = 12,227). Estimates were generated using a long short-term memory deep learning model and compared to existing process-based and linear regression models. Model training was optimized for prediction on unmonitored lakes through cross-validation that held out lakes to assess generalizability and estimate error. On the held-out lakes with in situ observations, median lake-specific error was 1.24°C, and the overall root mean squared...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
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The Prairie Pothole Region is recognized as one of the most productive areas for waterfowl in North America and supports an estimated 50–80 % of the continent’s duck population. This important habitat is threatened by climate change and continued land-use change. The goal of this research is to establish a framework for assessing future impacts of climate and land-use change on Prairie Pothole wetland ecosystems in Minnesota and Iowa to better assist wetland managers in planning conservation actions. Historically, the southeast portion of the US Prairie Pothole Region in Minnesota and Iowa has faced some of the greatest challenges in wetland conservation. While advances have been made to restore these habitats,...
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Forests across the U.S. are experiencing unprecedented tree mortality caused by a variety of stressors, including invasive insects, disease, extreme weather, wildfires, and droughts. For example, the emerald ash borer, a nonnative insect, has killed tens of millions of trees in the Lake States region of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan alone in the past decade. Tree die offs alter the structure of forests, making them less-suitable habitat for many species, and decrease their ability to perform important ecosystem functions, such as carbon sequestration. Climate change further threatens already damaged forests, as shifting temperature and precipitation conditions alter species’ range limits. To prevent additional...
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A temperature-dependent surplus production model has been used to estimate the historical productivity of freshwater fish populations. The data utilized in this analysis includes: (1) an index of relative abundance; (2) fishery removals and subsidies from stocking programs; and (3) lake growing degree days. Surplus production represents the net change in population biomass in the absence of fishing, reflecting the interplay of population dynamics such as recruitment (gain), individual fish growth (gain), and natural mortality (loss).
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The MW CASC strives to be collaboration-driven by bringing together scientists, natural and cultural resource managers, and members of the public to develop relevant, actionable science for the Midwest region, including Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, and Ohio. The MW CASC is a partnership between the U.S. Geological Survey and a consortium made up of 8 institutions: University of Minnesota (host), University of Wisconsin-Madison, Michigan State University, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Indiana University, College of Menominee Nation, Great Lakes Indian Fish and Wildlife Commission, and The Nature Conservancy. During the period of 2021 - 2026, the MW CASC consortium...
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Fish catch and effort data for three species caught in gill nets and trap nets between 1988 and 2019 as part of Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (MNDNR) fisheries surveys conducted during the summer and early fall are included from over 1,300 Minnesota lakes. The three fish species included are: bluegill (Lepomis marochirus) a warm-water adapted species, yellow perch (Perca flavescens) a cool-water adapted species, and cisco (Coregonus artedi) a cold-water adapted species. Additional data concerning lake characteristics and surrounding land cover were also included. Mean July lake surface temperature was calculated using simulated daily water temperatures. Watershed land use including agricultural, barren,...
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Floodplain forests along the Upper Mississippi River are heavily managed but understudied systems that provide critical ecosystem services, including habitat for endangered species. Impacts of a changing climate, such as warmer winters and wetter summers with extreme precipitation events, are already influencing hydrologic patterns in these ecosystems, including altering the duration, frequency, and timing of floods. These changes bring numerous challenges to floodplain forest managers. This project will leverage an already established research-management partnership to develop knowledge and tools to inform sustainable decision making. In this project, researchers will utilize multiple sources of “big data” to...
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In 2020, in partnership with the Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center (NE CASC), the Midwest Climate Adaptation Science Center (MW CASC) completed a four-part process to identify climate science priorities for both the Northeast and Midwest regions. The process included: structured feedback from an advisory committee, the completion of six listening sessions, feedback from project partners, and a review of regional climate initiatives. These efforts identified five management challenges for the MW CASC: 1) heavy precipitation events and drought, 2) loss of winter, 3) altered water levels, flows and temperatures, 4) new terrestrial landscapes resulting from climate change, and 5) barriers and opportunities...
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Cyanobacteria blooms are one of the most significant management challenges in the Great Lakes today. Recurring blooms of varying toxicity are commonly observed in four of the Great Lakes, and the fifth, Lake Superior, has experienced intermittent nearshore blooms since 2012. The recent advent of cyanobacterial blooms in Lake Superior is disconcerting, given the highly valued, pristine water quality of the large lake. It is possible that the ecological state of Lake Superior is shifting and that we are witnessing the beginnings of larger and longer lasting bloom events. As a public resource, the coastal water quality of Lake Superior has tremendous economic, public health, and environmental value, and therefore,...
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Fisheries managers in Midwestern lakes and reservoirs are tasked with balancing multiple management objectives to help maintain healthy fish populations across a landscape of diverse lakes. As part of this, managers monitor fish growth and survival. Growth rates in particular are indicators of population health, and directly influence the effectiveness of regulations designed to protect spawning fish or to promote trophy fishing opportunities. Growth, combined with reproduction and survival, also determines the amount of fish biomass available for harvest, known as population production. Changing water temperatures can influence growth and production of managed fish species in multiple complex ways, increasing the...
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The prairie grasslands of the Midwest and Great Plains provide important habitat for a wide variety of plants and animals, clean drinking water, and space for outdoor recreation and have experienced an over 99% loss of prairie grasslands due to a variety of factors including climate change. Land managers that are working to restore prairie grasslands would like to make them resilient to a shifting climate. However, they have limited information about how to plan these restorations with climate adaptation in mind In the Midwest and throughout much of North America, the effects of climate change are more pronounced and rapid in winter than in other seasons. Winters generally have less snow leaving plants more exposed...
The snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus) possesses a broad suite of adaptations to winter, including a seasonal coat color molt. Recently, climate change has been implicated in the range contraction of snowshoe hares along the southern range boundary. With shortening snow season duration, snowshoe hares are experiencing increased camouflage mismatch with their environment reducing survival. Phenological variation of hare molt at regional scales could facilitate local adaptation in the face of climate change, but the level of variation, especially along the southern range boundary, is unknown. Using a network of trail cameras and historical museum specimens, we (1) developed contemporary and historical molt phenology...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Climate change poses a unique threat to migratory species as it has the potential to alter environmental conditions at multiple points along a species' migratory route. The eastern migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) has declined markedly over the last few decades, in part due to variation in breeding-season climate. Here, we combined a retrospective, annual-cycle model for the eastern monarch population with climate projections within the spring breeding grounds in eastern Texas and across the summer breeding grounds in the midwestern U.S. and southern Ontario, Canada to evaluate how monarchs are likely to respond to climate change over the next century. Our results reveal that projected...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
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This data was used for the analysis in the paper "Assessing factors related to Walleye stocking success in the midwestern United States". This data includes stocking records of walleye from the Midwestern United States and subsequent evaluations of these stockings as provided by state agencies. Additionally, attributes of lakes such as size (depth, area), trophic state, and temperature are included to evaluate factors that relate to walleye stocking success. A second copy of the data is included that relies on imputation to fill in data gaps. Methodological processes are outlined in the associated paper.
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Habitat loss, pollution, species introductions, and overfishing have been impacting inland fisheries for decades. Climate change threatens to compound the factors that lead to fisheries decline. Walleye, an ecologically, economically and culturally important cool-water sportfish, have been declining in the Upper Great Lakes Region since the early 2000s. Yet while many inland walleye populations have declined, others have thrived, and some even appear to respond positively to warming temperatures in certain contexts (e.g. Honsey et al 2020). Rather than focusing on understanding walleye population declines, this project’s approach is to probe the factors that underlie successful, thriving fisheries. Focusing on ‘bright...
map background search result map search result map Exploring the Potential for Adaptive Tree Plantings to Restore and Sustain Forest Habitats Across the Upper Lake States Climate, Storms, and the Drivers of Cyanobacteria Blooms in Lake Superior Quantifying the Impacts of Climate Change on Fish Growth and Production to Enable Sustainable Management of Diverse Inland Fisheries The Impact of Future Climate on Wetland Habitat in a Critical Migratory Waterfowl Corridor of the Prairie Pothole Region Characterizing Climate-Driven Changes to Flood Events and Floodplain Forests in the Upper Mississippi River to Inform Management Walleye Fisheries: Bright Spots in a Changing Climate Technical Assessment of Climate Science Needs in the Midwest Midwest Climate Adaptation Science Center Consortium - Hosted by University of Minnesota (2021-2026) Data in Support of Predicting Climate Change Impacts on Poikilotherms Using Physiologically Guided Species Abundance Models How Management Decisions Might Improve the Resilience of Prairies Under Winter Climate Change Assessing factors related to Walleye stocking success in the midwestern United States - Associated Data Estimates of Historical Surplus Production of Freshwater Fish Populations Across Minnesota, Wisconsin, and South Dakota from 1980-2021 How Management Decisions Might Improve the Resilience of Prairies Under Winter Climate Change Climate, Storms, and the Drivers of Cyanobacteria Blooms in Lake Superior Exploring the Potential for Adaptive Tree Plantings to Restore and Sustain Forest Habitats Across the Upper Lake States Walleye Fisheries: Bright Spots in a Changing Climate Data in Support of Predicting Climate Change Impacts on Poikilotherms Using Physiologically Guided Species Abundance Models Estimates of Historical Surplus Production of Freshwater Fish Populations Across Minnesota, Wisconsin, and South Dakota from 1980-2021 Characterizing Climate-Driven Changes to Flood Events and Floodplain Forests in the Upper Mississippi River to Inform Management Quantifying the Impacts of Climate Change on Fish Growth and Production to Enable Sustainable Management of Diverse Inland Fisheries Technical Assessment of Climate Science Needs in the Midwest Midwest Climate Adaptation Science Center Consortium - Hosted by University of Minnesota (2021-2026) Assessing factors related to Walleye stocking success in the midwestern United States - Associated Data The Impact of Future Climate on Wetland Habitat in a Critical Migratory Waterfowl Corridor of the Prairie Pothole Region