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Aim To provide the first regional analysis of contemporary drivers of Pacific Island fire regimes. Location Islands of Palau, Yap, Guam, Rota, Tinian, Saipan, Chuuk, Pohnpei, Kosrae. Time Period 1950-present. Methods We used land cover, soil maps and contemporary fire histories to (1) describe the relationships among fire activity, vegetation, rainfall and island geography and population; (2) examine the spatial associations of forest and savanna vegetation with respect to fire and soil types; and (3) link fire and savanna distribution to intra-annual and inter-annual rainfall variability. Results Savanna extent was positively correlated with island age and the range of mean monthly rainfall. The percent of area...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
A cocktail of land-based sources of pollution threatens coral reef ecosystems, and addressing these has become a key management and policy challenge in the State of Hawaii, other US territories, and globally. In West Maui, Hawai'i, nearly one quarter of all living corals were lost between 1995 and 2008. Onsite disposal systems (OSDS) for sewage leak contaminants into drinking water sources and nearshore waters. In recognition of this risk, the Hawaii State Department of Health (DOH) is prioritizing areas for cesspool upgrades. Independently, we applied a decision analysis process to identify priority areas to address sewage pollution from OSDS in West Maui, with the objective of reducing nearshore coral reef exposure...
Indigenous communities make up less than 5% of the world’s population while stewarding 85% of biodiversity on the planet. In Hawaii, Native Hawaiian language resources, including proverbs, stories, and chants, provide glimpses to how people adapted with environmental rhythms, seasons, and offerings. Drought, the absence of water for agricultural, economic, and social use for a period, is important as a main water resource in Hawai‘i are clouds captured and purified by high island mountains in the middle of the Pacific Ocean. This research provides insight on Native Hawaiian relationships to drought historically as well as current practices within community-based management. Of importance are historical records of...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
This project sought to support, facilitate, assess and synthesize the research needs and information gaps of loko i‘a across the Hawaiian Islands to provide information for resource managers to adapt to the impacts of a changing climate. Through the process of developing a Loko I’a Needs Assessment the project achieved all of its proposed original objectives. This report represents the first comprehensive compilation of the research ideas and needs within the community of fishpond managers, landowners, and stewardship organizations to inform adaptation of fishpond practices toward their resilience, adaptation, and sustainability in the face of a changing climate. This project derived findings from notes recorded...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
As the impacts and risks from climate change increase, the climate assessment landscape has expanded in scope and application, resulting in the desire for more information relevant to local decision-making. Some regions lack detailed climate projections and a body of consensus findings about sector-specific impacts, and there is a need for actionable, culturally cognizant, translated climate information suitable for integration into operations and management, budgeting, funding proposals, and domestic and international policy. The Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment, or PIRCA, is the subject of this decade-long case study illustrating the need, development, and benefit of creating and sustaining a nuanced,...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Abstract: To design effective marine reserves and support fisheries, more information on fishing patterns and impacts for targeted species is needed, as well as better understanding of their key habitats. However, fishing impacts vary geographically and are difficult to disentangle from other factors that influence targeted fish distributions. We developed a set of fishing effort and habitat layers at high resolution and employed machine learning techniques to create regional‐scale seascape models and predictive maps of biomass and body length of targeted reef fishes for the main Hawaiian Islands. Spatial patterns of fishing effort were shown to be highly variable and seascape models indicated a low threshold beyond...
Summer precipitation in Hawai'i accounts for 40% of the annual total and provides important water sources. However, our knowledge about its variability remains limited. Here we show that statewide Hawai'i summer rainfall (HSR) variability exhibits two distinct regimes: quasi‐biennial (QB, ~2 years) and interdecadal (~30–40 years). The QB variation is linked to alternating occurrences of the Western North Pacific (WNP) cyclone and anticyclone in successive years, which is modulated by the intrinsic El Niño–Southern Oscillation biennial variability and involves a positive feedback between atmospheric Rossby waves and underlying sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. The interdecadal variation of HSR is largely modulated...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
This study aims to clarify the extent to which Marshallese people are already migrating because of climate change, and the role affected ecosystem services play in their migration decisions. The research also aims to better understand the effects of this migration on migrants themselves, among communities in the RMI (in the capital of Majuro, and on Mejit and Maleolap), and in destination states (Hawai‘i, Oregon, and Washington). Finally, the research provides an analysis of shared views found within Marshallese perceptions on these subjects, which allows for a more fulsome assessment of the current state of well-being for Marshallese migrants, contributes to a more informed discussion regarding whether migration...
Gridded bioclimatic variables representing yearly, seasonal, and monthly means and extremes in temperature and precipitation have been widely used for ecological modeling purposes and in broader climate change impact and biogeographical studies. As a result of their utility, numerous sets of bioclimatic variables have been developed on a global scale (e.g., WorldClim) but rarely represent the finer regional scale pattern of climate in Hawai'i. Recognizing the value of having such regionally downscaled products, we integrated more detailed projections from recent climate models developed for Hawai'i with current climatological datasets to generate updated regionally defined bioclimatic variables. We derived updated...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
The Marshall Islands Climate and Migration Project studies the multicausal nature of Marshallese migration, as well as its effects on migrants themselves and on home communities (van der Geest et al., 2019). It does so through people-centred research, seeking the views of Marshallese migrants and their relatives in the Marshall Islands. The research has a special focus on how impacts of climate change affect ecosystem services, livelihoods and migration decisions. This policy brief highlights key findings of the migration component of the research. It presents data and findings on migration patterns, drivers and impacts. It ends with a discussion of the results, with a focus on the tension between being prepared...
Complex socio-ecological issues, such as climate change have historically been addressed through technical problem solving methods. Yet today, climate science approaches are increasingly accounting for the roles of diverse social perceptions, experiences, cultural norms, and worldviews. In support of this shift, we developed a research program on Hawaiʻi Island that utilizes knowledge coproduction to integrate the diverse worldviews of natural and cultural resource managers, policy professionals, and researchers within actionable science products. Through their work, local field managers regularly experience discrete land and waterscapes. Additionally, in highly interconnected rural communities, such as Hawaiʻi...
Abstract (from Ecological Society of America): Predicting vegetation responses to increased future drought is challenging, owing to the complex interaction of multiple factors influencing both plant drought resistance and local climatic conditions, each of which may be subject to spatial and temporal heterogeneity. We conducted a detailed study of potential mechanisms underlying an elevational gradient in mortality that has characterized recent population declines of a threatened alpine plant, the Haleakalā silversword (Argyroxiphium sandwicense subsp. macrocephalum). We used a pair of greenhouse experiments staged at high and low elevations to test the influences of plasticity (to contrasting soil water availability...
Given the potential effect of invasive plants and animals to water fluxes through forests, the invasive-driven degradation of native ecosystems is a topic of great concern for many downstream land and water managers. The infiltration rate determines the partitioning between runoff and infiltration into soil in Hawaiian forests and beyond. Thus, to explore the ecohydrological effects of plant and animal invasion in mesic and wet forests in Hawaii, we measured soil infiltration capacity in multiple fenced (i.e., ungulate-free)/unfenced and native/invaded forest sites along moisture and substrate age gradients across the islands of Hawai‘i and Kaua‘i. We also characterized forest composition and structure and soil...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Giant clams are ecologically important, benefitting species of all trophic levels. But numerous populations have declined drastically in numbers due to past intensive exploitation that led to their listing in both CITES Appendix II and IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. However, giant clams are notoriously difficult to identify, and recent molecular work has revealed that morphological misidentification of giant clams have confounded current population assessments and extinction risk. The most recent study of the status of giant clams in the Samoan Archipelago was published in a journal over 20 years ago, without molecular corroboration of visual identifications. Using morphologic characteristics and ezRAD genetic...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
While there has been rapid advancement in the development and application of statistical downscaling methods for climate projection, determining the best predictive large-scale climate information for the targeted local climate variable remains a challenge. The choice of predictor variables is one of the most influential steps of model development and has the potential to lead to varying results, contributing to the total uncertainty of future projections. Despite being a well-known problem, predictor selection often does not receive adequate attention and the development of a straightforward and feasible prescreening process is needed to provide guidance to simple (e.g., linear regression) and complex (e.g., machine...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Mangrove forests are likely vulnerable to accelerating sea-level rise; however, we lack the tools necessary to understand their future resilience. On the Pacific island of Pohnpei, Federated States of Micronesia, mangroves are habitat to endangered species and provide critical ecosystem services that support local communities. We developed a generalizable modeling framework for mangroves that accounts for species interactions and the belowground processes that dictate soil elevation. The modeling framework was calibrated with extensive field datasets, including accretion rates derived from thirty 1-meter-deep soil cores dated with lead-210, more than 300 forest inventory plots, water-level monitoring, and differential...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Species within tropical alpine treeline ecotones are predicted to be especially sensitive to climate variability because this zone represents tree species’ altitudinal limits. Hawaiian volcanoes have distinct treeline ecotones driven by trade wind inversions. The local climate is changing, but little is known about how this influences treeline vegetation. To predict future impacts of climate variability on treelines, we must define the range of variation in treeline ecotone characteristics. Previous studies highlighted an abrupt transition between subalpine grasslands and wet forest on windward Haleakalā, but this site does not represent the diversity of treeline ecotones among volcanoes, lava substrates, and local...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Abstract (from AMS100): Spatially continuous data products are essential for a number of applications including climate and hydrologic modeling, weather prediction, and water resource management. In this work, a distance-weighted interpolation method used to map daily rainfall and temperature in Hawaii is described and assessed. New high-resolution (250 m) maps were developed for daily rainfall and daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) near-surface air temperature for the period 1990–2014. Maps were produced using climatologically aided interpolation, in which station anomalies were interpolated using an optimized inverse distance weighting approach and then combined with long-term means to produce daily gridded...
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This dataset provides seasonal means of 7 WRF variables for the Hawaiian Islands region including: rainfall (PR), 2m temperatures (TAS), 90th percentile daily rainfall extremes (PR90), 99th percentile daily rainfall extremes (PR99), 90th percentile daily temperature extremes (TAS90), 99th percentile daily temperature extremes (TAS99), and the vertically integrated moisture flux convergence (VIMFC) The files are organized and labeled by simulation period (present-day:1996-2005 and future: 2026-2035), season (wet or dry), and PDO phase (positive or negative). For a full description of the WRF model and simulations, please refer to related publication. ​Data are also available from a federal repository upon request....
Resilience-based management strategies are gaining attention as tools to improve coral survival and recovery under increasingly stressful conditions. Prioritizing locations to implement these strategies depends on knowing where corals already show potential signs of resilience and how environmental conditions may shift with climate change. We synthesized environmental conditions and coral cover trends in Guam and American Samoa using present-day climate conditions and 2 future climate scenarios: Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5. We examined the spatial overlap between favorable and unfavorable environmental conditions and locations where coral reefs have maintained or increased coral cover over...
map background search result map search result map Seasonal WRF Output (PI-CASC) Seasonal WRF Output (PI-CASC)