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Within the time frame of the longevity of tree species, climate change will change faster than the ability of natural tree migration. Migration lags may result in reduced productivity and reduced diversity in forests under current management and climate change. We evaluated the efficacy of planting climate-suitable tree species (CSP), those tree species with current or historic distributions immediately south of a focal landscape, to maintain or increase aboveground biomass, productivity, and species and functional diversity. We modeled forest change with the LANDIS-II forest simulation model for 100 years (2000–2100) at a 2-ha cell resolution and five-year time steps within two landscapes in the Great Lakes region...
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The populations of many forest birds have declined in recent decades due to loss of habitat area and degradation of habitat quality. Past land management has left the landscape of the heavily forested Appalachian Mountains with too little old growth as well as too few young, regenerating forests. This change in habitat structure has led to the listing of several forest birds as Species of Greatest Conservation Need. Active management is needed to maintain habitat for these species, but climate change may alter the kinds of management that are effective. Climate change is likely to affect forest structure – and bird habitat suitability – because of shifts in temperature, precipitation, and disturbance. While current...
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Within the time frame of the longevity of tree species, climate change will change faster than the ability of natural tree migration. Migration lags may result in reduced productivity and reduced diversity in forests under current management and climate change. We evaluated the efficacy of planting climate-suitable tree species (CSP), those tree species with current or historic distributions immediately south of a focal landscape, to maintain or increase aboveground biomass, productivity, and species and functional diversity. We modeled forest change with the LANDIS-II forest simulation model for 100 years (2000–2100) at a 2-ha cell resolution and five-year time steps within two landscapes in the Great Lakes region...
Content Changing aspen distribution in response to climate change and fire is a major focus of biodiversity conservation, yet little is known about the potential response of aspen to these two driving forces along topoclimatic gradients. Objective This study is set to evaluate how aspen distribution might shift in response to different climate-fire scenarios in a semi-arid montane landscape, and quantify the influence of fire regime along topoclimatic gradients. Methods We used a novel integration of a forest landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS-II) with a fine-scale climatic water deficit approach to simulate dynamics of aspen and associated conifer and shrub species over the next 150 years under...
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Researchers assessed how an expansion of forest reserves and climate-adaptive management may improve ecological connectivity and resilience under different climate scenarios. Resilience is measured as the capacity for these systems to maintain extant forest communities and aboveground live biomass. Forest landscape change was simulated via a spatially explicit forest ecosystem model, LANDIS-II. Simulations covered areas in northern Minnesota and northern lower Michigan that represent northern Great Lakes forest types. Restoring and maintaining ecological connectivity is one of the primary climate change adaptation strategies available to land managers, in addition to silvicultural practices. This study is...
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Climate change is expected to drastically change the environmental conditions which forests depend. Lags in tree species movements will likely be outpaced by a more rapidly changing climate. This may result in species extirpation, a change in forest structure, and a decline in resistance and resilience (i.e., the ability to persist and recover from external perturbations, respectively). In the northern Great Lakes region of North America, an ecotone exists along the boreal-temperate transition zone where large changes in species composition exist across a climate gradient. Increasing temperatures are observed in the more southern landscapes. As climate change is expected to substantially affect mid-continental landscapes,...
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Northern Great Lakes forests represent an ecotone in the boreal–temperate transition zone and are expected to change dramatically with climate change. Managers are increasingly seeking adaptation strategies to manage these forests. We explored the efficacy of two alternative management scenarios compared with business-as-usual (BAU) management: expanding forest reserves meant to preserve forest identity and increase resistance, and modified silviculture meant to preserve forest function and increase adaptive capacity. Our study landscapes encompassed northeastern Minnesota and northern Lower Michigan, which are predicted to experience significant changes in a future climate and represent a gradient of latitude,...
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Researchers assessed how an expansion of forest reserves and climate-adaptive management may improve ecological connectivity and resilience under different climate scenarios. Resilience is measured as the capacity for these systems to maintain extant forest communities and aboveground live biomass. Forest landscape change was simulated via a spatially explicit forest ecosystem model, LANDIS-II. Simulations covered areas in northern Minnesota and northern lower Michigan that represent northern Great Lakes forest types. Restoring and maintaining ecological connectivity is one of the primary climate change adaptation strategies available to land managers, in addition to silvicultural practices. This study is...
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Climatic warming has contributed to recent increases in severe wildfires across the Pacific Northwest (PNW). Following severe wildfire, a burned forest has an increased likelihood burning again within several decades, which can greatly alter vegetation recovery. These changes are of increasing concern to forest managers, conservationists, researchers, the public, and culture bearers. However, more information is needed to gauge how PNW forests respond to severe wildfire reburns under ongoing climate change. In this project, researchers and natural resource managers will jointly develop new applied science to anticipate and gauge the resilience of forests in the western Cascades of the PNW to climate change impacts....
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FY2011Aspen populations are in decline across western North America due to altered fire regimes, herbivory, drought, pathogens, and competition with conifers. Aspen stands typically support higher avian biodiversity than surrounding habitats, and maintaining current distributions of several avian species is likely tied to persistence of aspen on the landscape. We are examining effects of climate change on aspen and associated avian communities in isolated mountain ranges of the northern Great Basin, by coupling empirical models of avian-habitat relationships with spatially-explicit landscape simulations of vegetation and disturbance dynamics (using LANDIS-II) under various climate change scenarios. We are addressing...
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Aspen is an environmentally, economically, and socially important species in the western U.S. It is typically the most abundant deciduous tree species in mountainous landscapes of the western U.S., providing food and habitat for a variety of wildlife, including black bear, deer, elk, moose, and numerous bird species. Aspen woodlands also provide high quality forage for livestock and draw tourists to the region to view the golden vistas that form in the fall. However, aspen is currently declining across large portions of the West and it’s estimated that approximately 40% of western aspen will be without suitable climate conditions within 50 years. In the northern and central Rocky Mountains, it’s thought that reduced...
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Within the time frame of the longevity of tree species, climate change will change faster than the ability of natural tree migration. Migration lags may result in reduced productivity and reduced diversity in forests under current management and climate change. We evaluated the efficacy of planting climate-suitable tree species (CSP), those tree species with current or historic distributions immediately south of a focal landscape, to maintain or increase aboveground biomass, productivity, and species and functional diversity. We modeled forest change with the LANDIS-II forest simulation model for 100 years (2000–2100) at a 2-ha cell resolution and five-year time steps within two landscapes in the Great Lakes region...
    map background search result map search result map Scenarios for forest reserve expansion and adaptive management under alternative climate change scenarios in the northern Great Lakes Projecting the Effects of Climate Change on Aspen in the Central and Northern Rocky Mountains Dissertation: Resistance and Resilience of Northern Great Lakes Forests to the Effects of Climate Change Publication: Climate-suitable planting as a strategy for maintaining forest productivity and functional diversity Publication: Measuring and managing resistance and resilience under climate change in northern Great Lake forests Publication: Climate change effects on northern Great Lake (USA) forests: A case for preserving diversity Publication: Effects of alternative forest management on biomass and species diversity in the face of climate change in the northern Great Lakes region Report: Scenarios for forest reserve expansion and adaptive management under alternative climate change scenarios in the northern Great Lakes Quantifying vulnerability of quaking aspen woodlands and associate bird communities to global climate change in the northern Great Basin Informing Climate-Adaptive Forest Management for Breeding Bird Habitat in the Southern Appalachians Post-fire Vegetation Transitions in Burned and Reburned Forests in the Western Cascades Informing Climate-Adaptive Forest Management for Breeding Bird Habitat in the Southern Appalachians Post-fire Vegetation Transitions in Burned and Reburned Forests in the Western Cascades Quantifying vulnerability of quaking aspen woodlands and associate bird communities to global climate change in the northern Great Basin Projecting the Effects of Climate Change on Aspen in the Central and Northern Rocky Mountains Report: Scenarios for forest reserve expansion and adaptive management under alternative climate change scenarios in the northern Great Lakes Scenarios for forest reserve expansion and adaptive management under alternative climate change scenarios in the northern Great Lakes Dissertation: Resistance and Resilience of Northern Great Lakes Forests to the Effects of Climate Change Publication: Climate-suitable planting as a strategy for maintaining forest productivity and functional diversity Publication: Measuring and managing resistance and resilience under climate change in northern Great Lake forests Publication: Climate change effects on northern Great Lake (USA) forests: A case for preserving diversity Publication: Effects of alternative forest management on biomass and species diversity in the face of climate change in the northern Great Lakes region