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Abstract (from http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10980-015-0167-7/fulltext.html): Context Conservation of geophysical diversity has been proposed as a strategy for conserving species diversity and facilitating adaptive capacity of species in the face of changing climate. Existing protected areas may not correspond to the most geophysically diverse places because they have typically not been selected on this basis. Objectives My objectives were to characterize geophysical diversity in the southwestern United States, assess the sensitivity of my results to methodological choices, and assess the degree to which the existing protected areas network in this region captures geophysically diverse places. Methods...
Abstract (from http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00196.1): In this study (Part I), the mid-twenty-first-century surface air temperature increase in the entire CMIP5 ensemble is downscaled to very high resolution (2 km) over the Los Angeles region, using a new hybrid dynamical–statistical technique. This technique combines the ability of dynamical downscaling to capture finescale dynamics with the computational savings of a statistical model to downscale multiple GCMs. First, dynamical downscaling is applied to five GCMs. Guided by an understanding of the underlying local dynamics, a simple statistical model is built relating the GCM input and the dynamically downscaled output. This statistical...
Abstract: Alaska’s national parks draw millions of people annually to enjoy wildlife, breathtaking scenery, and recreational adventure. Visitor use is highly seasonal and occurs primarily during the summer months when temperatures are warm and daylight is long. Climate is an important consideration when planning a trip to Alaska’s national parks because of the great distances and associated costs of travel for many visitors. As a result of projected climate warming, peak visitor season of use in Alaska’s national parks may expand. To examine the potential effects of warming climate on park visitor season of use, we used regression analyses to quantify the relationship between historical (1980–2009) visitor use and...
Abstract: The effect of human-induced climate warming on different snow measures in the western United States is compared by calculating the time required to achieve a statistically significant linear trend in the different measures, using time series derived from regionally downscaled global climate models. The measures examined include the water content of the spring snowpack, total cold-season snowfall, fraction of winter precipitation that falls as snow, length of the snow season, and fraction of cold-season precipitation retained in the spring snowpack, as well as temperature and precipitation. Various stakeholders may be interested in different sets of these variables. It is found that temperature and the...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Southwest CASC, climate, snow
Abstract (from Wiley): With increasing concerns about the impact of warming temperatures on water resources, more attention is being paid to the relationship between runoff and precipitation, or runoff efficiency. Temperature is a key influence on Colorado River runoff efficiency, and warming temperatures are projected to reduce runoff efficiency. Here, we investigate the nature of runoff efficiency in the upper Colorado River (UCRB) basin over the past 400 years, with a specific focus on major droughts and pluvials, and to contextualize the instrumental period. We first verify the feasibility of reconstructing runoff efficiency from tree‐ring data. The reconstruction is then used to evaluate variability in runoff...
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In 2017, California was experiencing its most severe drought in over a millennia. Low rainfall and record high temperatures resulted in increased tree mortality and complete forest diebacks across the West. Though land managers scrambled to respond, they lacked information needed to make informed decisions. Focusing on California’s central and southern Sierra Nevada Mountains, this project seeks to determine whether a key forest management practice – forest thinning via prescribed fire – can help forests better survive drought. Prescribed fire is commonly used in the western U.S. to remove potential wildfire fuel, such as small trees and shrubs. It is also thought that this act of selectively removing trees helps...
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The Colorado River is a crucial water source for millions of people in the Southwest. Warming temperatures, clearly documented in climate records for the Colorado River basin, are having an impact on the amount of annual streamflow yielded from rain and snow. Recent work has revealed that warming temperatures have played an increasingly important role over the past decades, both exacerbating droughts and dampening the effects of wet winters on high stream flows. Understanding and anticipating how warming temperatures will influence future water supply in the Colorado River basin is increasingly important for resource management, particularly in light of recent drought conditions. The overarching goals of this...
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In California, the near-shore area where the ocean meets the land is a highly productive yet sensitive region that supports a wealth of wildlife, including several native bird species. These saltmarshes, mudflats, and shallow bays are not only critical for wildlife, but they also provide economic and recreational benefits to local communities. Today, sea-level rise, more frequent and stronger storms, saltwater intrusion, and warming water temperatures are among the threats that are altering these important habitats. Much of the existing research on anticipating the effects of changing conditions on coastal ecosystems relies on global or regional scale data, meaning that the detailed information necessary for local-scale...
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Changes in temperature and precipitation due to climate change (and associated droughts, wildfires, extreme storms etc.) threaten important water sources, forests, wildlife habitat, and ecosystems across the Southwest and throughout the entire U.S. These threats cross political and man-made boundaries and therefore need to be addressed at larger landscape-level and regional scales. “Landscape conservation design” is one method that can be used by land and resource managers to support large scale conservation and ensure that small scale and local actions contribute to a landscape level vision. The Desert Landscape Conservation Cooperative (LCC) is working to develop a shared vision for conservation action in the...
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Native Nations face unique challenges related to climate change. Native Americans have a deep connection to the natural environment within which their livelihoods, cultural identity, and spiritual practices are rooted. Changes to water flow and hydrology, landscapes, and ecosystems, in combination with socio-economic and other factors, amplify tribal vulnerabilities to climate change. In the Southwest, tribes are already experiencing a range of impacts that are at least partially related to climate change. They include serious water quality and supply issues in the context of prolonged drought; reduced ability to grow or collect important traditional crops and raw materials; loss of forest resources from large and...
Abstract (from http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JAMC-D-15-0167.1): Annual precipitation in California is more variable than in any other state and is highly influenced by precipitation in winter months. A primary question among stakeholders is whether low precipitation in certain months is a harbinger of annual drought in California. Historical precipitation data from 1895 to 2013 are investigated to identify leading monthly indicators of annual drought in each of the seven climate divisions (CDs) as well as statewide. For this study, drought conditions are defined as monthly/annual (October–September) precipitation below the 20th/30th percentile, and a leading indicator is defined as a monthly drought...
Abstract (from http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-015-1552-6): Understanding how predicted species responses to climate change are affected by advances in climate modeling is important for determining the frequency with which vulnerability assessments need to be updated. We used ecological niche models to compare predicted climatic habitat suitability for 132 species of reptiles and amphibians in California, USA under the previous and current generations of climate simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5). We used data from seven global climate models for future (2014–2060) predictions under the following greenhouse gas emissions scenarios: SRES A2 for CMIP3 and...
Abstract: The recognition of climate change issues facing tribal communities and indigenous peoples in the United States is growing, and understanding its impacts is rooted in indigenous ethical perspectives and systems of ecological knowledge. This foundation presents a context and guide for contemporary indigenous approaches to address climate change impacts that are comprehensive and holistic. Tribal communities and indigenous peoples across the United States are reenvisioning the role of science in the Anthropocene; working to strengthen government-to-government relationships in climate change initiatives; and leading climate change research, mitigation and adaptation plans through indigenous ingenuity. Unique...
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Estuaries are located at the interface where rivers meet the sea, creating unique ecosystems with complex physical and biological processes. Coastal wetlands provide essential ecosystem services to people, including flood protection from high tides and storm surges, commercial fisheries, carbon sequestration, improved water quality, and wildlife food and habitat. Coastal wetlands are also home to hundreds of migratory and resident wildlife species including threatened and endangered species of management concern. Wetlands also have the unique ability to increase their elevation relative to sea-level rise, therefore protecting nearby communities from flooding. In California, prolonged drought and extreme storm events...
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Mountain ecosystems are at risk from climate change and may be experiencing accelerated warming relative to lower environments. Understanding climatic and ecosystem processes at meso-, topo-, and micro-scales is limited, and constrains our ability to accurately evaluate vulnerability, and assess responses under future climates. Of special interest for climate studies are upper subalpine forests, the alpine treeline ecotone, and the alpine zones. We will use case-study ecosystems to address climatic processes and ecological responses at topo- and micro-scales, including: 1) treeline ecotone and role of phenotypic plasticity in Pinus albicaulis, 2) rocky ecosystems and Ochotona princeps, 3) demography of subalpine...
The Native Nations Climate Adaptation Program (NNCAP) was founded in 2015 with the mission to build capacity to work collaboratively with Native American tribes and indigenous populations in the western United States and Mexico. NNCAP received funds from the DOI Southwest Climate Science Center to carry out a “Tribal Adaptation Initiative.” One of the objectives of this initiativ ewas to conduct a preliminary assessment of tribal interest and capacity for adaptation across the Southwest. Twenty-six Native Nations participated in the NNCAP tribal climate change assessment and reported a wide array of involvement in climate change initiatives. This report highlights various strengths and capacity needs for climate...
Abstract (from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006320714002882): With ongoing global change, there is an urgent need to expand existing networks of important conservation areas around the world. In the western United States, vast areas of public land, including those administered by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), present substantial conservation opportunities. For 11 contiguous western states, we used a novel multiple-criteria analysis to model and map contiguous areas of roadless BLM land that possessed important ecological indicators of high biodiversity, resilience to climate change, and landscape connectivity. Specifically, we leveraged available spatial datasets to implement a systematic...
Abstract (from Springer): Analyses of observed non-Gaussian daily minimum and maximum temperature probability distribution functions (PDFs) in the Southwest US highlight the importance of variance and warm tail length in determining future heat wave probability. Even if no PDF shape change occurs with climate change, locations with shorter warm tails and/or smaller variance will see a greater increase in heat wave probability, defined as exceedances above the historical 95th percentile threshold, than will long tailed/larger variance distributions. Projections from ten downscaled CMIP5 models show important geospatial differences in the amount of warming expected for a location. However, changes in heat wave probability...
The objective of our work is to develop a general and transferrable approach to defining how any given hydrologic system will filter climatic forcings. We will develop a framework that can allow for rapid assessment of the vulnerability of hydrologic systems to predicted climate changes of varying complexity, often without the need for site-specific hydrologic models. Our approach will guide site-specific modeling, where appropriate, to focus on those components of predicted climate change that are most likely to persist through the groundwater system. We are focusing on the role of the unsaturated zone in the filtering of climatic forcings. More specifically, we are examining how variations in infiltration are...
map background search result map search result map Effects of Sea-Level Rise and Extreme Storms on California Coastal Habitats: Part 2 Building Partnerships to Assess Tribal Adaptation to Climate Change and Science Needs in the Southwest Can Prescribed Fire Help Forests Survive Drought in the Sierra Nevada Mountains? Response of High Mountain Ecosystems in the Great Basin to Historic and Future Climate Change Assessing Southwest Resources, Future Climate Scenarios, and Possible Adaptation Actions to Support Conservation Planning Anticipating Future Impacts of Temperature on Streamflow in the Colorado River Basin Climate Extremes and Ecological Impacts to California Estuaries Can Prescribed Fire Help Forests Survive Drought in the Sierra Nevada Mountains? Response of High Mountain Ecosystems in the Great Basin to Historic and Future Climate Change Anticipating Future Impacts of Temperature on Streamflow in the Colorado River Basin Climate Extremes and Ecological Impacts to California Estuaries Effects of Sea-Level Rise and Extreme Storms on California Coastal Habitats: Part 2 Building Partnerships to Assess Tribal Adaptation to Climate Change and Science Needs in the Southwest Assessing Southwest Resources, Future Climate Scenarios, and Possible Adaptation Actions to Support Conservation Planning