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With the ultimate goal of conserving and restoring threatened native grassland prairies and the wildlife that depend on them, the National Audubon Society (Audubon) is facilitating a landscape conservation design for the grassland birds in the greater Chicago region. As a first step in this process standardized avian point count surveys conducted primarily by citizen volunteers were combined with landcover composition and configuration, soils, and vegetation productivity data to model abundance of five grassland bird species. Models were updated with additional data and expert review in 2015 and now provide map outputs of existing grassland bird habitat and population estimates for species of conservation concern...
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There is mounting concern that climate change will lead to the collapse of cyclic population dynamics, yet the influence of climate variability on population cycling remains poorly understood. We hypothesized that variability in survival and fecundity, driven by climate variability at different points in the life cycle, scales up from local populations to drive regional characteristics of population cycling and spatial synchronization.
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In total this project has developed digital wetland inventory and habitat data for ten counties within and around the Great Lakes watershed of Wisconsin. Digital data has now been completed for the following counties: Sawyer, Sauk, Barron, Polk, Langlade, Menominee, Price, Shawano, Taylor, and Winnebago.
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This project connects scientists and managers from federal, tribal and state agencies and nongovernmental organizations to exchange information and establish common priorities for management of terrestrial wildlife populations. To achieve these goals, we are organizing interactive workshops with partners across the region. In year 2, we will assess the risk posed by climate change and other major stressors to a subset of priority species (as identified by regional partners). This assessment will integrate available data and scientific understanding in a transparent process, detailing assumptions and uncertainties to project population-level responses of target species to climate change.
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The availability of output from climate model ensembles,such as phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP3 and CMIP5), has greatly expanded information about future projections,but there is no accepted blueprint for how this data should be utilized.The multi-model average is themost commonly cited single estimate of future conditions,but higher-order moments representing thevariance and skewness of the distribution of projections provide important information about uncertainty. We have analyzed a set of statistically downscaled climate model projections from the CMIP3 archive to assess extreme weather events at a level aimed to be appropriate for decisionmakers. Our analysis uses the distribution...
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As a major threat to global biodiversity, climate change will alter where and how we manage conservation lands (e.g., parks, refuges, wildlife management areas, natural areas). As a new challenge with high uncertainty, many conservation practitioners have yet to consider how to minimize their greenhouse gas contributions (i.e., mitigation), or reduce the vulnerability of natural systems to climate change (i.e., adaptation). This is particularly true for conservation land managers; because they are often pressed for time and resources, few have initiated long-term climate change planning and amended management activities. Furthermore, where available, climate change guidance is often coarse-level, vague, and beyond...
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The Nature Conservancy - Great Lakes Program is leading the development of a scalable (Great Lakes wide, individual lake basin, to coastal reach within a lake basin) rule-based spatial model for ranking the relative importance of coastal lands and waters as habitat for migrating birds. Results will guide conservation actions including land acquisition, land and water management and restoration, and development of wind energy facilities. Specifically, the team will: 1) refine, create and integrate migratory bird stopover habitat models which depict the distribution of potential stopover sites along or near the shorelines of Lakes Michigan, Huron, Erie, and Ontario; and, 2) develop an online portal that will deliver...
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Mayflies (Ephemeroptera), stoneflies (Plecoptera), and caddisflies (Trichoptera) (a.k.a. EPT taxa) are the most environmentally sensitive of freshwater insects. They are utilized the world over as indicators of water quality in flowing waters. Their decline has been documented in Asia, Europe, and North America. A 220,321 record dataset of new and museum EPT specimen records covering much of the Midwest and Maximum Entropy (Maxent) software were used construct to current and future, climate influenced distribution models. Nearly 100 physical and historic vegetation variables and 9 BIOCLIM variables derived from downscaled climate data for the region were employed in this process. A total of 426 EPT species were...
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Our goal was to predict road culvert passability, as defined by culvert outlet drop and outlet water velocity, for three fish swimming groups using remotely collected environmental variables that have been shown to influence the passability of road culverts.We generated four boosted regression tree models, one for road culvert outlet drop and one each for the three culvert outlet water velocities, and predicted the probability of impassable road culverts on low-order streams based on the models. Independent variables in the modelsincluded the upstream area draining to the culvert, slope at the culvert, stream segment gradient and stream reach gradient.Gradient of the stream segment was the most important predictor...
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Mayflies (Ephemeroptera), stoneflies (Plecoptera), and caddisflies (Trichoptera) (a.k.a. EPT taxa) are the most environmentally sensitive of freshwater insects. They are utilized the world over as indicators of water quality in flowing waters. Their decline has been documented in Asia, Europe, and North America. A 220,321 record dataset of new and museum EPT specimen records covering much of the Midwest and Maximum Entropy (Maxent) software were used construct to current and future, climate influenced distribution models. Nearly 100 physical and historic vegetation variables and 9 BIOCLIM variables derived from downscaled climate data for the region were employed in this process. A total of 426 EPT species were...
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Northern Great Lakes forests represent an ecotone in the boreal–temperate transition zone and are expected to change dramatically with climate change. Managers are increasingly seeking adaptation strategies to manage these forests. We explored the efficacy of two alternative management scenarios compared with business-as-usual (BAU) management: expanding forest reserves meant to preserve forest identity and increase resistance, and modified silviculture meant to preserve forest function and increase adaptive capacity. Our study landscapes encompassed northeastern Minnesota and northern Lower Michigan, which are predicted to experience significant changes in a future climate and represent a gradient of latitude,...
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The emerald ash borer (EAB) poses a tremendous threat to ash forest habitats across the upper Great Lakes. Of particular concern is the impact EAB will have on the ecology and functioning of black ash ( Fraxinus nigra) forested wetlands, which cover over 500,000 ha in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin and represent the region’s most common ash forest habitat. Black ash often occurs in relatively pure stands on poorly drained sites where it serves as a foundation species exerting a strong control over ecosystem structure and functioning. Correspondingly, extirpation of this species by EAB could have negative cascading effects, including dramatic rises in water tables and shifts in vegetation composition towards...
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This project will improve tribal and First Nation engagement in cooperative natural resource conservation efforts. Researchers are fostering networking among tribes, First Nations and other relevant partners in the upper Midwest – Great Lakes region, and engaging tribal and First Nation representatives in the development of a set of principles and strategies for their authentic, robust inclusion in regional resource conservation cooperative frameworks. The project is conducting an environmental scan of current climate and landscape change planning initiatives as well as mitigation and resilience-building projects being implemented by tribes and First Nations in the region. The results will lead to broader inclusion...
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Researchers downscaled projections of maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation across a large extent east of the Rocky Mountains to the Atlantic Coast. The data is probabilistic in nature, providing flexibility in incorporating climate information into impact assessments. Statistical techniques were used for the downscaling and it retains a reasonable representation of daily extreme events, such as intense precipitation or extreme temperatures. A web-based client is in creation to host and distribute the data. This project produced: Statistically downscaled precipitation, and maximum and minimum temperature at approximately a 0.1° by 0.1° resolution, at daily time scales, for all global climate models...
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Waterfowl are ecologically, culturally, and economically important and their annual and long-term distributions in North America can substantially impact ecological relationships and have economic impacts. In Mississippi, Arkansas and Louisiana alone, recent annual sales of Federal Duck Stamps equal $2.4 million. An intensive study in Mississippi estimated the annual total economic impact of waterfowl hunting in that state was $86.8 million. North American waterfowl number in the millions, use a diversity of aquatic and terrestrial foraging niches, and can feed at rates capable of depleting local food resources. In recent years, waterfowl appear to be wintering at more northern latitudes. Sustained northern...
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Ecological connectivity between the Great Lakes and their tributaries is widely impaired, and many agencies and organizations are currently investing in restoring these connections to enhance target fish and wildlife populations. To assist in targeting these investments, we have been developing spatial data on the location and attributes of barriers (dams and road-stream crossings) and fish breeding habitat throughout the Great Lakes basin to analyze the optimum strategy for enhancing connectivity and restoring fish migrations. The proposed work will result in guidance for barrier restoration at scales from individual watersheds to the entire basin, refine methodologies for spatial analysis of barriers, and provide...
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With the ultimate goal of conserving and restoring threatened native grassland prairies and the wildlife that depend on them, the National Audubon Society (Audubon) is facilitating a landscape conservation design for the grassland birds in the greater Chicago region. As a first step in this process standardized avian point count surveys conducted primarily by citizen volunteers were combined with landcover composition and configuration, soils, and vegetation productivity data to model abundance of five grassland bird species. Models were updated with additional data and expert review in 2015 and now provide map outputs of existing grassland bird habitat and population estimates for species of conservation concern...
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This project directly addresses the need for integration of climate change information and strategies into Wisconsin’s Wildlife Action Plan (WWAP) as identified by Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Land Conservation Cooperative. Wisconsin’s WWAP is used as a major conservation planning tool by state agencies and partners, but this tool currently lacks information on climate change. At the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WDNR), the WWAP informs master planning for state‐owned properties, influences land acquisition priorities, and provides direction for management, inventory, and research. As a user‐friendly, detailed, web‐based resource, the WWAP is also available to other conservation organizations and private...
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Full life-cycle vulnerability assessments are identifying the effects of climate change on nongame migratory birds that are of conservation concern and breed in the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Full life-cycle analyses are critical, as current efforts likely underestimate the vulnerability of migratory land birds due to a focus on assessing only one component of the annual cycle. The approach provides a framework for integrating exposure to climate changes, sensitivity to these changes, and the potential for adaptation in both winter and summer seasons, and accounts for carry-over effects from one season to another. The results of this work will inform regional management by highlighting both local and...


map background search result map search result map On-a-wing and a (GIS) Layer: Prioritizing migratory bird habitat along Great Lakes shoreline Downscaling climate in the Great Lakes region for regional climate impact assessment Full life cycle vulnerability assessments for the birds of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes Predicting climate change effects on riverine aquatic insects in the Upper Midwest Re-establishing ecological connectivity between the Great Lakes and their tributaries: Prioritization in a complex system Building partnerships and establishing consensus on regional priorities across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Landscape Cooperative Integrated models for estimating influences of climate change on waterfowl  populations, waterfowl habitat, and hunter opportunity and demographics Grassland Bird Conservation Design in the Chicago Region Climate Change Impacts on Wisconsin's Natural Communities and Conservation Opportunities Areas: Updating Wisconsin's Wildlife Action Plan Report:  Environmental Change Adaptation Strategies in UMGL region Report: Predicting climate change effects on riverine aquatic insects in the Upper Midwest Publication: Predicting road culvert passability for migratory fishes Publication: Interpreting climate model projections of extreme weather events Report: Quantifying and mitigating the impacts of emerald ash borer on black ash forests in the upper Great Lakes region Report: Grassland Bird Conservation Design in the Chicago Region Publication: Climate variability drives population cycling and synchrony Report: Digital Conversion of Updated Wisconsin Wetland Inventory Report: Manajiwin: Respecting tribes, First nations and cultural resources in cooperative landscape and climate change decision-making Publication: Effects of alternative forest management on biomass and species diversity in the face of climate change in the northern Great Lakes region Grassland Bird Conservation Design in the Chicago Region Report: Grassland Bird Conservation Design in the Chicago Region Climate Change Impacts on Wisconsin's Natural Communities and Conservation Opportunities Areas: Updating Wisconsin's Wildlife Action Plan Report: Digital Conversion of Updated Wisconsin Wetland Inventory Publication: Effects of alternative forest management on biomass and species diversity in the face of climate change in the northern Great Lakes region On-a-wing and a (GIS) Layer: Prioritizing migratory bird habitat along Great Lakes shoreline Full life cycle vulnerability assessments for the birds of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes Predicting climate change effects on riverine aquatic insects in the Upper Midwest Re-establishing ecological connectivity between the Great Lakes and their tributaries: Prioritization in a complex system Building partnerships and establishing consensus on regional priorities across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Landscape Cooperative Report:  Environmental Change Adaptation Strategies in UMGL region Report: Predicting climate change effects on riverine aquatic insects in the Upper Midwest Publication: Predicting road culvert passability for migratory fishes Publication: Interpreting climate model projections of extreme weather events Report: Manajiwin: Respecting tribes, First nations and cultural resources in cooperative landscape and climate change decision-making Downscaling climate in the Great Lakes region for regional climate impact assessment Report: Quantifying and mitigating the impacts of emerald ash borer on black ash forests in the upper Great Lakes region Publication: Climate variability drives population cycling and synchrony Integrated models for estimating influences of climate change on waterfowl  populations, waterfowl habitat, and hunter opportunity and demographics