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The Integrated Ecosystem Model is designed to help resource managers understand the nature and expected rate of landscape change. Maps and other products generated by the IEM will illustrate how arctic and boreal landscapes are expected to alter due to climate-driven changes to vegetation, disturbance, hydrology, and permafrost. The products will also provide resource managers with an understanding of the uncertainty in the expected outcomes.
In Alaska, changes in snow, ice, and weather, have resulted in risks to human lives, infrastructure damage, threats to valuable natural resources, and disruption of hunting, fishing, and livelihoods.Leaders from the Aleutians to the Chukchi Sea came together for a series of Coastal Resilience and Adaptation Workshops, spearheaded by three Landscape Conservation Cooperatives and the Aleutian Pribilof Islands Association. Tribal leaders, resource managers, community planners, and scientists explored strategies to adapt to these unprecedented changes.The workshop series brought together 14 Organizing Partners 34 Tribes, 15 State & Federal Agencies, and a total of more than 200 participants to meet in four regional...
Categories: Data; Tags: Academics & scientific researchers, Aleutian Bering Sea Islands LCC data.gov, CLIMATE ADVISORIES, CLIMATE ADVISORIES, CLIMATE INDICATORS, All tags...
The Arctic LCC has developed a Project Tracking System(PTS) to electronically manage the metadata and data associated with projects. The PTS is used to track projects throughout all stages of development, from receipt of proposals through delivery of final products. The PTS allows staff to access and manage project data using a web browser and is developed and designed to operate on open source software. The Arctic LCC is making the open source code for the PTS available to anyone wishing to develop their own method of tracking projects.
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These raster datasets represent historical stand age. The last four digits of the file name specifies the year represented by the raster. For example a file named Age_years_historical_1990.tif represents the year 1990. Cell values represent the age of vegetation in years since last fire, with zero (0) indicating burned area in that year. Files from years 1860-2006 use a variety of historical datasets for Boreal ALFRESCO model spin up and calibration to most closely match historical wildfire dynamics.
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We mosaicked twelve LandSat-8 OLI satellite images taken during the summer of 2014, which were used in an object based image analysis (OBIA) to classify the landscape. We mapped seventeen of the most dominant geomorphic land cover classes on the ACP: (1) Coastal saline waters, (2) Large lakes, (3) Medium lakes, (4) Small lakes, (5) Ponds, (6) Rivers, (7) Meadows, (8) Coalescent low-center polygons, (9) Low-center polygons, (10) Flat-center polygons, (11) High-center polygons, (12) Drained slope, (13) Sandy barrens, (14) Sand dunes, (15) Riparian shrub, (16) Ice, and (17) Urban (i.e. towns and roads). Mapped products were validated with an array of oblique aerial/ground based photography (Jorgenson et al., 2011)...
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This pilot project has initiated a long-term integrated modeling project that aims todevelop a dynamically linked model framework focused on climate driven changes tovegetation, disturbance, hydrology, and permafrost, and their interactions and feedbacks.This pilot phase has developed a conceptual framework for linking current state-of-thesciencemodels of ecosystem processes in Alaska – ALFRESCO, TEM, GIPL-1 – and theprimary processes of vegetation, disturbance, hydrology, and permafrost that theysimulate. A framework that dynamically links these models has been defined and primaryinput datasets required by the models have been developed.
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Hydrologic processes greatly influence Alaska’s physical and biological resources and the human communities that depend upon them. These processes will also be greatly impacted by expected changes in climate, including warming temperatures and changing seasonal precipitation patterns and amounts. However, current understanding of those impacts is limited. Improving that understanding is a first step toward assessing how the likely changes in hydrology will impact other physical and biological processes. The Western Alaska LCC and the Alaska Climate Science Center, with support from other LCCs, hosted a workshop of 28 hydrologists, researchers, fisheries biologists, local experts and managers for a workshop structured...
Changes to the coastline and to coastal features, such as spits, barrier islands, estuaries, tidal guts and lagoons were mapped for over 22,000 km of coastline along the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska coasts in western Alaska. Changes to rivers and lakes near the coast were also captured. The analysis was based on time-series analysis of Landsat imagery, 1972–2013. An annual imeseries of suitable Landsat imagery was compiled and analyzed for changes in near-infrared reflectance to identify areas that transitioned from land to water, or vice-versa, over the study period. The timing of changes was also identified. Thousands of coastal changes over the 42-year study period exceeded the 60-m pixel resolution of the Multispectral...
Categories: Data; Tags: BARRIER ISLANDS, BARRIER ISLANDS, BARRIER ISLANDS, BARRIER ISLANDS, COASTAL AREAS, All tags...
This project established a permafrost monitoring network in this region, providing a baseline of permafrost thermal regimes for assessing future change at a total of 26 automated monitoring stations. Stations have collected year-round temperature data from the active layer and the permafrost starting from the summer of 2011. The strong correspondence between spatial variability in permafrost thermal regime and an existing ecotype map allowed for the development of a map of ‘permafrost thermal classes’ for the broader study region. Further, the annual temperature data was used to calibrate models of soil thermal regimes as a function of climate, providing estimates of both historic and future permafrost thermal regimes...
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Alaska’s freshwater resources, vitally important for salmon and other species, are vulnerable to changes resulting from climate change. Though temperature is a critical element in the suitability of aquatic habitats, Alaska’s stream and lake temperature monitoring is occurring through independent agencies/partners without a means to link and share data. Because a coordinated network of monitoring data can help scientists and managers understand how aquatic systems are responding to climate change, conducting an inventory of past and present stream and lake temperature monitoring efforts has been identified as a priority science need for Alaska. This project consolidated existing monitoring site locations and attributes...
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This project evaluated the potential impacts of storm surges and relative sea level rise on nesting geese and eider species that commonly breed on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (Y-K Delta). Habitat suitability maps for breeding waterbirds were developed to identify current waterbird breeding habitat and distributions. Short-term climate change impacts were assessed by comparing nest densities in relation to magnitude of storms that occurred in the prior fall from 2000-2013. Additionally, nest densities were modeled using random forests in relation to the time-integrated flood index (e.g., a storm specific measure accounting for both water depth and duration of flooding) for four modeled storms (2005, 2006, 2009, and...
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: DELTAS, DELTAS, DUCKS/GEESE/SWANS, DUCKS/GEESE/SWANS, Decision Support, All tags...
Western Alaska is one of the fastest warming regions on the globe and recent trends are expected to continue into the next century, likely having substantial effects on the aquatic resources of this region. While increased air temperatures will have direct effects on water temperatures, indirect effects due to changes in precipitation, groundwater characteristics, and flow regimes may have much larger effects on aquatic ecosystems. Coastal watersheds of Western Alaska are expected to receive 25-50% more snow and 18-25% more rain in the next century. Future “climate warming” may actually cool some streams if the ratio of snow to rain increases for coastal watersheds, while rain-dominated streams are likely to become...
Water temperature in lakes and lagoons plays a key role in hydrology, water quality, and habitat suitability for aquatic organisms. The purpose of this project is to provide land and resource managers with information related to the past, present, and future temperature trends in lake surface waters in western Alaska. Through a combination of remote sensing, in situ data collection, model development, we will analyze similarities and differences related to spatial and temporal patterns of lake surface temperatures in western Alaska from 1985 to 2100. ​
Bering Sea storms introduce various environmental conditions that adversely affect human activity and infrastructure in the coastal zone and the ecosystems they depend upon. Storm impacts include interactions with sea ice in all potential states: large floes, shore-fast ice, and incipient sea-ice in frazil or slush state. In particular, sea ice can act to enhance or mitigate the impacts of adverse marine state, even as the event is occurring. Such occurrences should be part of a forecasting regimen, however scientific work has not been conducted on this phenomena, with the result that a physical model describing the formation of slush ice berms does not exist. To arrive at such a model requires visits to and input...
Presented by Don Spalinger & Nathan WolfThis seminar focuses on our concepts of regulation of nutrient flows through tundra ecosystems and the effect that climate (or weather) has on these processes. Nutrient flow and climate, in turn, should regulate plant phenology and production, and thus caribou behavior and nutrition. We will present some ideas for assessing the landscape patterns of these processes and monitoring their impacts. Finally, we will provide examples of such assessment and monitoring processes from our work in Western Alaska over the past two years.​
Categories: Data; Tags: ALPINE/TUNDRA, ALPINE/TUNDRA, CARBON, CARBON, CARBON CYCLE/CARBON BUDGET MODELS, All tags...
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A high spatial resolution storm surge model was developed for the YK Delta area to assess biological impacts of storm surges under current and future climates. Storm surges are expected to be more frequent and more severe in the YK Delta area due to climate change and sea level rise. The biological impacts in the YK Delta due to the changed storm surges could be extreme.The model was assessed with respect to measured water level data at the coast and, where available, spatial extent of inundation, for 6 storms from the period 1992 to 2011. In total, inundation projections from 9 historical storms (5 from the assessment + 4 others) were developed. For each storm, an spatial inundation index (time-integral of water...
Categories: Data; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: ARCHAEOLOGICAL AREAS, ARCHAEOLOGICAL AREAS, Academics & scientific researchers, COASTAL AREAS, COASTAL AREAS, All tags...
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Floods, spatially complex water flows, and organism movements all generate important fluxes of aquatic-derived materials into terrestrial habitats, counteracting the gravity-driven downhill transport of matter from terrestrial-to-aquatic ecosystems. The magnitude of these aquatic subsidies isoften smaller than terrestrial subsidies to aquatic ecosystems but higher in nutritional quality, energy density, and nutrient concentration. The lateral extent of biological aquatic subsidies is typically small, extending only a few meters into riparian habitat; however, terrestrial consumers often aggregate on shorelines to capitalize on these high-quality resources. Although the ecological effects of aquatic subsidies remain...
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How local geomorphic and hydrologic features mediate the sensitivity of stream thermal regimes to variation in climatic conditions remains a critical uncertainty in understanding aquatic ecosystem responses to climate change. We used stable isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen to estimate contributions of snow and rainfall to 80 boreal streams and show that differences in snow contribution are controlled by watershed topography. Time series analysis of stream thermal regimes revealed that streams in rain-dominated, low-elevation watersheds were 5–8 times more sensitive to variation in summer air temperature compared to streams draining steeper topography whose flows were dominated by snowmelt. This effect was more pronounced...


map background search result map search result map Alaskan Arctic Coastal Plain Polygonal Geomorphology Map Watershed control of hydrologic sources and thermal conditions in SW Alaska streams: a framework for forecasting effects of changing climate Webinar (2015) AK-OATS Watershed geomorphology and snowmelt control stream thermal sensitivity to air temperature Summary handout - Factsheet Alaska Stream and Lake Temperature Monitoring Workshop November 2012 Subsidies of Aquatic Resources in Terrestrial Ecosystems Lidar processing and Survey Reports Integrated Ecosystem Model Reports IEM-CSC Factsheet with Supplement, 2015 The impacts of storm surges on breeding waterbirds on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska: past effects and future projected impacts Historical Stand Age 1960-1969 The impacts of storm surges on breeding waterbirds on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska: past effects and future projected impacts Summary handout - Factsheet Lidar processing and Survey Reports Watershed geomorphology and snowmelt control stream thermal sensitivity to air temperature Subsidies of Aquatic Resources in Terrestrial Ecosystems Alaskan Arctic Coastal Plain Polygonal Geomorphology Map Alaska Stream and Lake Temperature Monitoring Workshop November 2012 Integrated Ecosystem Model Reports IEM-CSC Factsheet with Supplement, 2015 Historical Stand Age 1960-1969 Webinar (2015) AK-OATS