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Numerous studies have evaluated precipitation trends in Alaska and come to different conclusions. These studies differ in analysis period and methodology and do not address the issue of temporal homogeneity. To reconcile these conflicting results, we selected 29 stations with largely complete monthly records, screened them for homogeneity, and then evaluated trend over two analysis periods (1950–2010 and 1980–2010) using three methods: least absolute deviation regression, ordinary least squares regression (with and without transformation), and Mann-Kendall trend testing following removal of first-order autocorrelation. We found that differences in analytical period had a significant impact on trends and that the...
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This dataset is a component of a complete package of products from the Connect the Connecticut project. Connect the Connecticut is a collaborative effort to identify shared priorities for conserving the Connecticut River Watershed for future generations, considering the value of fish and wildlife species and the natural ecosystems they inhabit. Click here to download the full data package, including all documentation.This dataset depicts the potential capability of the landscape throughout the Connecticut River Watershed to provide habitat for Prairie Warbler (Setophaga discolor) based on environmental conditions existing in approximately 2010. Landscape capability integrates factors influencing climate suitability,...
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Estimating species abundance is important for land managers, especially for monitoringconservation efforts. The two main survey methods for estimating avian abundance are point counts and transects. Previous comparisons of these two methods have either been limited to a single species or have not included detection probability. During the 2012 breeding season, we compared and assessed the efficiency (precision for amount of effort) of point count time of detection (PCTD) and dependent double-observer transect (TRMO) methods based on detection probabilities and abundance estimates of five species of songbirds that use a range of habitats in a prairie system in Montana dominated by sagebrush and grassland vegetation....
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The habitats and food resources required to support breeding and migrant birds dependent on North American prairie wetlands are threatened by impending climate change. The North American Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) hosts nearly 120 species of wetland-dependent birds representing 21 families. Strategic management requires knowledge of avian habitat requirements and assessment of species most vulnerable to future threats. We applied bioclimatic species distribution models (SDMs) to project range changes of 29 wetland-dependent bird species using ensemble modeling techniques, a large number of General Circulation Models (GCMs), and hydrological climate covariates. For the U.S. PPR, mean projected range change, expressed...
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The Yukon–Kuskokwim Delta of Alaska,USAis a globally important region for numerous avianspecies including millions of migrating and nesting waterbirds.However, data on the current spatial distributionof critical nesting areas and the importance of environmental variables in the selection of nest locations aregenerally lacking for waterbirds in this region.We modeled nest densities for 6 species of geese and eiders thatcommonly breed on the Yukon–Kuskokwim Delta, including cackling goose (Branta hutchinsii minima),emperor goose (Chen canagica), black brant (B. bernicla nigricans), greater white-fronted goose (Anser albifronsfrontalis), spectacled eider (Somateria fischeri), and common eider (S. mollissima).Thedata...
Categories: Data, Publication; Types: Citation, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: BIRDS, BIRDS, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT MODELS, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT MODELS, DELTAS, All tags...
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When resources are spatially and temporally variable, consumers can increasetheir foraging success by moving to track ephemeral feeding opportunitiesas these shift across the landscape; the best examples derive from herbivore–plant systems, where grazers migrate to capitalize on the seasonal waves ofvegetation growth. We evaluated whether analogous processes occur in watershedssupporting spawning sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka), askingwhether seasonal activities ofpredators and scavengers shift spatial distributionsto capitalize on asynchronous spawning among populations of salmon. Bothglaucous-winged gulls and coastal brown bears showed distinct shifts in theirspatial distributions over the course of the summer,...
This publication identifies areas where big sagebrush populations are most and least vulnerable to climate change and demonstrates where continued investment in sagebrush conservation and restoration could have the most impact.
As conservation increases its emphasis on implementing change at landscape-level scales, multiagency, cross-boundary, and multi-stakeholder networks become more important. These elements complicate traditional notions of learning. To investigate this further, we examined structures of learning in the Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs), which include the entire US and its territories, as well as parts of Canada, Mexico, and Caribbean and Pacific island states. We used semi-structured interviews, transcribed and analyzed using NVivo, as well as a charrette-style workshop to understand the difference between the original stated goals of individual LCCs and the values and purposes expressed as the collaboration...
Natural-resource managers and other conservation practitioners are under unprecedented pressure to categorize and quantify the vulnerability of natural systems based on assessment of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of species to climate change. Despite the urgent need for these assessments, neither the theoretical basis of adaptive capacity nor the practical issues underlying its quantification has been articulated in a manner that is directly applicable to natural-resource management. Both are critical for researchers, managers, and other conservation practitioners to develop reliable strategies for assessing adaptive capacity. Drawing from principles of classical and contemporary research and...
This September, 2014 article in the Orange County Register highlights the project “Sea-level rise modeling across the California salt marsh gradient”.
In a rapidly changing climate, effective bird conservation requires not only reliable information about the current vulnerability of species of conservation concern, but also credible projections of their future vulnerability. Such projections may enable managers to preempt or reduce emerging climate-related threats through appropriate habitat management. We used NatureServe’s Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) to predict vulnerability to climate change of 168 bird species that breed in the Sierra Nevada mountains of California, USA. The CCVI assesses species-specific exposure and sensitivity to climate change within a defined geographic area, through the integration of (a) species’ range maps, (b) information...
Climate change is raising challenging questions for systematic conservation planning. Are methods of planning based on the current spatial patterns of biodiversity effective given long-term climate change trends? In response to this concern, some conservation scientists argue that conservation planning should focus on protecting the abiotic diversity in the landscape, which drives patterns of biological diversity, rather than focusing on the distribution of focal species or community types, which shift in response to climate change. Climate diversity is one important abiotic driver of biodiversity patterns, as different climates host different biological communities and genetic pools. We theorize that networks of...
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Identifying the climatic drivers of an ecological system is a key step in assessing its vulnerability to climate change. Theclimatic dimensions to which a species or system is most sensitive – such as means or extremes – can guide methodologicaldecisions for projections of ecological impacts and vulnerabilities. However, scientific workflows for combining climateprojections with ecological models have received little explicit attention. We review Global Climate Model (GCM)performance along different dimensions of change and compare frameworks for integrating GCM output into ecologicalmodels. In systems sensitive to climatological means, it is straightforward to base ecological impact assessments onmean projected...
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Oil development in the Bakken shale region has increased rapidly as a result of new technologies and strongdemand for fossil fuel. This region also supports a particularly high density and diversity of grassland bird species,which are declining across North America. We examined grassland bird response to unconventional oilextraction sites (i.e. developed with hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling techniques) and associatedroads in North Dakota. Our goal was to quantify the amount of habitat that was indirectly degraded by oil development,as evidenced by patterns of avoidance by birds. Grassland birds avoided areas within 150 m of roads(95% CI: 87–214 m), 267 m of single-bore well pads (95% CI: 157–378 m),...
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Many waterbird species utilize a diversity of aquatic habitats; however, with increasing anthropogenic needs tomanage water regimes there is global concern over impacts to waterbird populations. The federally threatened pipingplover (Charadrius melodus; hereafter plovers) is a shorebird that breeds in three habitat types in the Prairie PotholeRegion of North Dakota, South Dakota, and Canada: riverine sandbars; reservoir shorelines; and prairie wetlands. Watersurface areas of these habitats fluctuate in response to wet–dry periods; decreasing water surface areas exposeshorelines that plovers utilize for nesting. Climate varies across the region so when other habitats are unavailable forplover nesting because of flooding,...
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Global environmental change has influenced lake surface temperatures, a key driver of ecosystem structureand function. Recent studies have suggested significant warming of water temperatures in individual lakesacross many different regions around the world. However, the spatial and temporal coherence associatedwith the magnitude of these trends remains unclear. Thus, a global data set of water temperature isrequired to understand and synthesize global, long-term trends in surface water temperatures of inlandbodies of water. We assembled a database of summer lake surface temperatures for 291 lakes collectedin situ and/or by satellites for the period 1985–2009. In addition, corresponding climatic drivers (airtemperatures,...
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How local geomorphic and hydrologic features mediate the sensitivity of stream thermal regimesto variation in climatic conditions remains a critical uncertainty in understanding aquatic ecosystem responsesto climate change.We used stable isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen to estimate contributions of snow and rainfallto 80 boreal streams and show that differences in snow contribution are controlled by watershed topography.Time series analysis of streamthermal regimes revealed that streams in rain-dominated, low-elevation watershedswere 5–8 times more sensitive to variation in summer air temperature compared to streams draining steepertopography whose flows were dominated by snowmelt. This effect wasmore pronounced...
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This dataset is a component of a complete package of products from the Connect the Connecticut project. Connect the Connecticut is a collaborative effort to identify shared priorities for conserving the Connecticut River Watershed for future generations, considering the value of fish and wildlife species and the natural ecosystems they inhabit. Click here to download the full data package, including all documentation. This dataset identifies large and medium rivers within the Connecticut River watershed that provide habitat for five anadromous fish species: American shad, blueback herring, shortnose sturgeon, alewife, and sea lamprey. Habitat includes the mainstem and major tributaries of the Connecticut River...
Open canopy conditions in southeastern pine (Pinus spp.) forests were historically maintained by frequent fire and other disturbances, without which midstory hardwoods create closed canopy conditions limiting value of pine stands for many endemic, disturbance-adapted species. Intensively managed pine forests, which comprise 19% of forests in the southeastern U.S., can emulate historical open pine conditions, providing appropriate vegetation structure and composition for many endemic species. However, exact mechanisms for producing and maintaining open pine conditions and subsequent effects on biodiversity have not been examined across regions and stand ages. To better inform managers about options for providing...
The development of robust modelling techniques to derive inferences from large- scale migratory bird monitoring data at appropriate scales has direct relevance to their management. The Integrated Waterbird Management and Monitoring programme (IWMM) represents one of the few attempts to monitor migrating waterbirds across entire flyways using targeted local surveys. This dataset included 13,208,785 waterfowl (eight Anas species) counted during 28,000 surveys at nearly 1,000 locations across the eastern United States between autumn 2010 and spring 2013 and was used to evaluate potential predictors of waterfowl abundance at the wetland scale. Mixed-effects, log- linear models of local abundance were built for the Atlantic...
map background search result map search result map Anadromous Fish Index, CT River Watershed Landscape Capability for Prairie Warbler, CT River Watershed Comparison of removal-based methods for estimating abundance of five species of prairie songbirds Implications of climate change for wetland-dependent birds in the Prairie Potholes Region Designing ecological climate change impact assessments to reflect key climatic drivers Watershed geomorphology and snowmelt control stream thermal sensitivity to air temperature. Riding the crimson tide: mobile terrestrial consumers track phenological variation in spawning of an anadromous fish A global database of lake surface temperatures collected by in situ and satellite methods from 1985–2009 Land use and wetland drainage affect water levels and dynamics of remaining wetlands Avoidance of unconventional oil wells and roads exacerbates habitat loss for grassland birds in the North American great plains Reconciling precipitation trends in Alaska: 1. Station-based analyses Predicting Waterbird Nest Distributions on the Yukon–Kuskokwim Delta of Alaska Predicting Waterbird Nest Distributions on the Yukon–Kuskokwim Delta of Alaska Avoidance of unconventional oil wells and roads exacerbates habitat loss for grassland birds in the North American great plains Anadromous Fish Index, CT River Watershed Watershed geomorphology and snowmelt control stream thermal sensitivity to air temperature. Riding the crimson tide: mobile terrestrial consumers track phenological variation in spawning of an anadromous fish A global database of lake surface temperatures collected by in situ and satellite methods from 1985–2009 Landscape Capability for Prairie Warbler, CT River Watershed Comparison of removal-based methods for estimating abundance of five species of prairie songbirds Implications of climate change for wetland-dependent birds in the Prairie Potholes Region Designing ecological climate change impact assessments to reflect key climatic drivers Land use and wetland drainage affect water levels and dynamics of remaining wetlands Reconciling precipitation trends in Alaska: 1. Station-based analyses