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Prioritizing climate adaptation actions is often made difficult by stakeholders and decision-makers having multiple objectives, some of which may be competing. Transparent, transferable, and objective methods are needed to assess and weight different objectives for complex decisions with multiple interests. In this study, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to examine priorities in managing cultural resources in the face of climate change at Cape Lookout National Seashore on the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States. In this process, we conducted facilitated discussion sessions with the selected stakeholder representatives to elicit a comprehensive list of management objectives. Objectives were...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Climate change is altering fire regimes and post-fire conditions, contributing to relatively rapid transformation of landscapes across the western US. Studies are increasingly documenting post-fire vegetation transitions, particularly from forest to non-forest conditions or from sagebrush to invasive annual grasses. The prevalence of climate-driven, post-fire vegetation transitions is likely to increase in the future with major impacts on social–ecological systems. However, research and management communities have only recently focused attention on this emerging climate risk, and many knowledge gaps remain. We identify three key needs for advancing the management of post-fire vegetation transitions, including centering...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
This report provides an overview of the state of the science for climate impacts and adaptation options across the NEAFWA region and for Regional Species of Greatest Conservation Need (RSGCN) and associated habitats.
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Climate change impacts ecosystems variably in space and time. Landscape features may confer resistance against environmental stressors, whose intensity and frequency also depend on local weather patterns. Characterizing spatio-temporal variation in population responses to these stressors improves our understanding of what constitutes climate change refugia. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical framework that allowed us to differentiate population responses to seasonal weather patterns depending on their “sensitive” or “resilient” states. The framework inferred these sensitivity states based on latent trajectories delineating dynamic state probabilities. The latent trajectories are composed of linear initial conditions,...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
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Freshwater fish are among the most vulnerable taxa to climate change globally but are generally understudied in tropical island ecosystems. Climate change is predicted to alter the intensity, frequency, and variability of extreme flow events on the Caribbean island of Puerto Rico. These changes may impact Caribbean native and non-native stream ecosystems and biota complex ways. We compiled an extensive dataset of native and non-native fish assemblages collected at 119 sites across Puerto Rico from 2005 to 2015. We coupled these data with stream flow indices and dam height to understand how flow dynamics drive fish assemblage structure. Sixteen percent of sites contained exclusively non-native species, 34% contained...
(Abstract from Springer): There is increasing interest among scholars in producing information that is useful and usable to land and natural resource managers in a changing climate. This interest has prompted transitions from scientist- to stakeholder-driven or collaborative approaches to climate science. A common indicator of successful collaboration is whether stakeholders use the information resulting from the projects in which they are engaged. However, detailed examples of how stakeholders use climate information are relatively scarce in the literature, leading to a challenge in understanding what researchers can and should expect and plan for in terms of stakeholder use of research findings. Drawing on theoretical,...
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Fish data on six species (black crappie (Pomoxis nigromaculatus), bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus), largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides), northern pike (Esox lucius), walleye (Sander vitreus), and yellow perch (perca flavescens)) caught in gill nets and trap nets between 2000 and 2019 during Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (MNDNR) fisheries surveys done in the months of June through September. Fish catch and effort (number of nets set overnight) comes from over 1,000 Minnesota lakes. In addition to fisheries data, we included additional information concerning lake characteristics, predicted water temperature, and watershed land use. Lake area and maximum depth were obtained from MNDNR public databases....
The potential responses of animal species to climate change often are assessed by correlating species occurrence or density with long-term average temperature or precipitation. These approaches overlook the effects on species’ distributions and abundances of climate extremes and the indirect effects of climate. We developed an approach for projecting responses of wildlife to future climate that explicitly accounted for the direct effects of climate extremes and the indirect effects of climate via changes in the timing and magnitude of primary productivity (henceforth phenology). We used historical climate data and remotely sensed data on phenology to develop predictive models of climate-phenology relations in desert...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
The riparian vegetation within the San Carlos Apache Reservation (hereafter Reservation), within the Upper Gila River watershed extending from southwestern New Mexico into southeastern Arizona, provides immense ecological and cultural value to the people of the San Carlos Apache Tribe (hereafter referred to as the Tribe/Tribal) but has experienced substantial changes and stresses over the past century because of fluctuations in climate and a series of human-induced and natural disturbances. This research addresses these challenges by analyzing the riparian vegetation within the Upper Gila River watershed using aerial and satellite imagery, and by documenting the direct relationship to fluctuations in climate conditions....
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
The Great Basin is an arid province located in the interior western United States. The region encompasses millions of hectares and quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) forests comprise a minor portion of the total area. However, montane aspen forests play a disproportionately large role in providing ecosystem services in the region, including water retention, biodiversity, wildlife habitat, livestock forage, and recreational uses. With warming temperatures, increasing evaporative demand, and heightened precipitation variability, the future of aspen has become a critical concern. Using dendroecological approaches, we assessed growth patterns of 20 aspen stands across three geographically isolated “sky island”...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
A number of modeling approaches have been developed to predict the impacts of climate change on species distributions, performance and abundance. The stronger the agreement from models that represent different processes and are based on distinct and independent sources of information, the greater the confidence we can have in their predictions. Evaluating the level of confidence is particularly important when predictions are used to guide conservation or restoration decisions. We used a multi-model approach to predict climate change impacts on big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata), the dominant plant species on roughly 43 million hectares in the western United States and a key resource for many endemic wildlife species....
Understanding how annual climate variation affects population growth rates across a species’ range may help us anticipate the effects of climate change on species distribution and abundance. We predict that populations in warmer or wetter parts of a species’ range should respond negatively to periods of above average temperature or precipitation, respectively, whereas populations in colder or drier areas should respond positively to periods of above average temperature or precipitation. To test this, we estimated the population sensitivity of a common shrub species, big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata), to annual climate variation across its range. Our analysis includes 8175 observations of year-to-year change in...
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The broadly shared information needs for grassland managers in the North Central region to meet conservation goals in a changing climate are presented and ranked as highly relevant, somewhat relevant, or not relevant for federal, state, tribal, and non-governmental grassland-managing entities.
Global climate change is predicted to increase air and stream temperatures and alter thermal habitat suitability for growth and survival of coldwater fishes, including brook charr (Salvelinus fontinalis), brown trout (Salmo trutta), and rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss). In a changing climate, accurate stream temperature modeling is increasingly important for sustainable salmonid management throughout the world. However, finite resource availability (e.g. funding, personnel) drives a tradeoff between thermal model accuracy and efficiency (i.e. cost-effective applicability at management-relevant spatial extents). Using different projected climate change scenarios, we compared the accuracy and efficiency of stream-specific...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Abstract (from Springer): Biases in invasion science have led to a taxonomic focus on plants, particularly a subset of well-studied plants, and a geographic focus on invasions in Europe and North America. While broader, country-level geographic biases are well known, it is unclear whether these biases extend to a finer scale. This study assessed whether research sites for ten well-studied invasive plants in the U.S. are geographically biased relative to each species’ known invaded range. We compared the distribution, climate, specific geographic variables related to land type (public or private), proximity to roads and universities, and state noxious weed status of research sites reported in 735 scientific articles...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
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Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) is a fatal, contagious, neuro-degenerative disease affecting multiple members of the Family Cervidae. First detected in 1967, the disease has, as of April 2024, been documented in free-ranging and/or captive cervid populations in 33 states, five Canadian provinces, the Republic of South Korea, Norway, Sweden, and Finland. The data provided here contains information on the known, available, documented distribution of CWD in the United States that is current as of the publication date. The USGS National Wildlife Health Center (NWHC) tracks changes to the known distribution of CWD in the form of a map (available on the NWHC website at https://www.usgs.gov/centers/nwhc/science/expanding-distribution-chronic-wasting-disease....
Categories: Data, Data Release - Revised; Types: Citation; Tags: Alabama, Alaska, American Samoa, Arizona, Arkansas, All tags...
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Previous research identified species of invasive plants in Hawai'i which are highly flammable and act as fuels in wildfires across Hawai'i. This work aimed to map the distribution of these species (largely grasses) around the islands of Hawai'i with the goal of using the locations for species distribution modeling. All data represents presence data, no absence data were recorded. Data are largely from within the past 20 years, but some georeferenced herbarium specimens go as far back as 1905. Data were obtained from georeferenced herbarium specimens, vegetation plot data, citizen science data (iNaturalist) reviewed by the authors, and data from roadside surveys conducted as part of this research to map these species....
map background search result map search result map Chronic Wasting Disease distribution in the United States by state and county (ver. 2.0, April 2024) Broadly Shared Information Needs Among Grassland Managers in the North Central Region Data In Support Of Accounting For Spatio-Temporal Variation In Catachability In Joint Species Distribution Models The Effects of Flow Extremes on Native and Non-Native Stream Fishes in Puerto Rico Locations of Fire Promoting Alien Plants Across the Islands of Hawaii Based on Field Surveys and Museum Collections from 1903-2023 Dunlin resightings in East Asian-Australasian flyway publications Arctic National Wildlife Refuge shorebird nest survival publications Alaska Shorebird Sample publications Arctic National Wildlife Refuge shorebird nest survival publications Data In Support Of Accounting For Spatio-Temporal Variation In Catachability In Joint Species Distribution Models Locations of Fire Promoting Alien Plants Across the Islands of Hawaii Based on Field Surveys and Museum Collections from 1903-2023 Broadly Shared Information Needs Among Grassland Managers in the North Central Region Chronic Wasting Disease distribution in the United States by state and county (ver. 2.0, April 2024) Dunlin resightings in East Asian-Australasian flyway publications Alaska Shorebird Sample publications