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The distribution and abundance of cheatgrass, an invasive annual grass native to Eurasia, has increased substantially across the Intermountain West, including the Great Basin. Cheatgrass is highly flammable, and as it has expanded, the extent and frequency of fire in the Great Basin has increased by as much as 200%. These changes in fire regimes are associated with loss of the native sagebrush, grasses, and herbaceous flowering plants that provide habitat for many native animals, including Greater Sage-Grouse. Changes in vegetation and fire management have been suggested with the intent of conserving Greater Sage-Grouse. However, the potential responses of other sensitive-status birds to these changes in management...
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Ecological systems are already responding to modern changes in climate. Many species are moving in directions and at rates that correspond with recent climatic change. Understanding how species distributions and abundances are likely to be altered can inform management and planning activities resulting in more robust management. We projected climate-driven changes in the abundances and distributions of 31 focal bird species in Oregon and Washington using the latest downscaled CMIP5 climate projections and corresponding vegetation model outputs. We mapped these future projections and integrated them into an existing web-based tool (http://data.pointblue.org/apps/nwcsc/) to allow managers and planners to access and...
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Climate change is already affecting species in many ways. Because individual species respond to climate change differently, some will be adversely affected by climate change whereas others may benefit. Successfully managing species in a changing climate will require an understanding of which species will be most and least impacted by climate change. Although several approaches have been proposed for assessing the vulnerability of species to climate change, it is unclear whether these approaches are likely to produce similar results. In this study, we compared the relative vulnerabilities to climate change of 76 species of birds, mammals, amphibians, and trees based on three different approaches to assessing vulnerability....
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In the Pacific Northwest, land and resource managers strive to make decisions that benefit both natural and human communities, balancing ecological and economic demands including wildlife habitat, forest products, forage for grazing, clean water, and wildfire control. Climate change adds a layer of complexity to the planning process because of its uncertain effects on the environment. In order to make sound decisions, managers need information about how climate change will affect wildlife habitat, both on its own and in conjunction with management actions. The goal of this project was to explore how future climate may interact with management alternatives to shape wildlife habitat across large landscapes. Scientists...
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Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) is a candidate for listing under the Endangered Species Act because of population and habitat fragmentation combined with inadequate regulatory mechanisms to control development in critical areas. In addition to the current threats to habitat, each 1 degree celsius increase in temperature due to climate change is expected to result in an additional 87,000 km2 of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) that will be converted to unsuitable habitat for sage-grouse. Thus, the future distribution and composition of sagebrush landscapes is likely to differ greatly from today’s configuration. We conducted a large, multi-objective project to identify: (1) characteristics of habitats required...
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Climate change has been implicated in the range shifts and population declines of many species, but the confounding of climate change with other variables, particularly landscape change, hampers inference about causation. Climate envelope models have been used to predict population trends and future distributions, but the reliability of such predictions remains relatively unknown; without tests of model accuracy, policy development will be based on highly uncertain ground. Our team assembled recent developments in change detection mapping and species modeling. Specifically, our objectives were to: (1) use 32-year data on bird distributions to test the reliability of climate envelope models, (2) test whether changes...
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Biodiversity is declining worldwide, and this trend could potentially become more severe as climate conditions change. An integral component of proactive adaptive management planning requires forecasts of how changes in climate will affect individual species. This need has been identified my multiple federal agencies, including the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, National Park Service, Bureau of Land Management, and U.S. Forest Service. The goal of this project was to assist land and wildlife managers in anticipating which species are most vulnerable to changes in climate in the Southwest, and how resources can best be invested to facilitate adaptation. Researchers evaluated the current and future breeding ranges...
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This project identified priority areas in the Columbia Plateau Ecoregion to focus on for riverine and riparian habitat conservation. The project’s products are tailored towards the Arid Lands Initiative (ALI) conservation goals and objectives and provide the foundation for adaptation to a changing climate. We adopted a “zoned” approach to identifying focal areas, connectivity management zones, and zones for riparian habitat and ecological representation. Through a series of workshops and webinars, the ALI identified freshwater species for targeted conservation, including Pacific lamprey, bull trout, redband trout, riparian birds and waterfowl, and beavers. The methods to spatially identify a conservation design...
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Enhancing ecological connectivity - the degree to which landscapes facilitate the movement of the organisms within them - is a frequently recommended strategy for conserving wildlife populations into the future. This is because a primary way in which species respond to climate change is by adjusting their geographic ranges to find more suitable temperatures and adequate food supplies. It is also because connectivity facilitates many other important ecological and evolutionary processes within species' ranges, further promoting resilience and healthy populations. However, widespread fragmentation of landscapes by human activities presents a serious obstacle to these processes, which may contribute to a decline in...


    map background search result map search result map Climate, Land Management and Future Wildlife Habitat in the Pacific Northwest Understanding Climate Change Vulnerability in the Pacific Northwest: A Comparison of Three Approaches Contribution of Landscape Characteristics and Vegetation Shifts from Global Climate Change to Long-Term Viability of Greater Sage-grouse Disentangling the Effects of Climate and Landscape Change on Bird Population Trends in the Western U.S. and Canada Identifying the Vulnerability of Birds and Reptiles to Changes in Climate in the Southwest Creating Practitioner‐Driven, Science‐Based Plans for Connectivity Conservation in the Washington-British Columbia Transboundary Region Visualizing the Future Abundance and Distribution of Birds in the Northwest Spatial Conservation Priorities for Riverine and Riparian Systems in the Columbia Plateau Ecoregion Relations Among Cheatgrass, Fire, Climate, and Sensitive-Status Birds across the Great Basin Climate, Land Management and Future Wildlife Habitat in the Pacific Northwest Visualizing the Future Abundance and Distribution of Birds in the Northwest Creating Practitioner‐Driven, Science‐Based Plans for Connectivity Conservation in the Washington-British Columbia Transboundary Region Spatial Conservation Priorities for Riverine and Riparian Systems in the Columbia Plateau Ecoregion Relations Among Cheatgrass, Fire, Climate, and Sensitive-Status Birds across the Great Basin Disentangling the Effects of Climate and Landscape Change on Bird Population Trends in the Western U.S. and Canada Identifying the Vulnerability of Birds and Reptiles to Changes in Climate in the Southwest Contribution of Landscape Characteristics and Vegetation Shifts from Global Climate Change to Long-Term Viability of Greater Sage-grouse Understanding Climate Change Vulnerability in the Pacific Northwest: A Comparison of Three Approaches