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In the northern Gulf of Mexico, mangrove forests have been expanding their northern range limits in parts of Texas, Louisiana, and north Florida since 1989. In response to warming winter temperatures, mangroves, which are dominant in warmer climates, are expected to continue migrating northward at the expense of salt marshes, which fare better in cooler climates. The ecological implications and timing of mangrove expansion is not well understood, and coastal wetland managers need information and tools that will enable them to identify and forecast the ecological impacts of this shift from salt marsh to mangrove-dominated coastal ecosystems. To address this need, researchers will host workshops and leverage existing...
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Covering 120 million acres across 14 western states and 3 Canadian provinces, sagebrush provides critical habitat for species such as pronghorn, mule deer, and sage-grouse – a species of conservation concern. The future of these and other species is closely tied to the future of sagebrush. Yet this important ecosystem has already been affected by fire, invasive species, land use conversion, and now, climate change. In the western U.S., temperatures are rising and precipitation patterns are changing. However, there is currently a limited ability to anticipate the impacts of climate change on sagebrush. Current methods suffer from a range of weakness that limits the reliability of results. In fact, the current uncertainty...
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Climate change is causing species to shift their phenology, or the timing of recurring life events such as migration and spawning, in variable and complex ways. This can potentially result in mismatches or asynchronies in food and habitat resources that negatively impact individual fitness, population dynamics, and ecosystem function. Numerous studies have evaluated phenological shifts in terrestrial species, particularly birds and plants, yet far fewer evaluations have been conducted for marine animals. This project sought to improve our understanding of shifts in the timing of seasonal migration, spawning or breeding, and biological development (i.e. life stages present, dominant) of coastal fishes and migratory...
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Climate change will have sweeping impacts across the Northeast, yet there are key gaps in our understanding about whether species will be able to adapt to this changing environment. Results from this project will illuminate local and region-wide changes in forest ecosystems by studying the red-backed salamander, a species that is a strong indicator of forest conditions. This study identified habitat and forest characteristics that improve the resiliency of forest dwelling amphibians and other wildlife to climate change. Further, by studying a foundational species in forest floor ecosystems, the scientists can use the information to make inferences about rare and declining species. The researchers studied multiple...
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Coral reefs are some of the most biologically rich and economically valuable ecosystems in the world. They provide food, fishing, and recreation opportunities for millions of people, protect coastlines from storms, and shelter thousands of plant and animal species. However, climate change is contributing to the degradation of coral reefs in two significant ways: warming temperature and increasing acidification of ocean waters. Scientists are actively working to gather more specific information about how these factors will impact coral reef ecosystems. The purpose of this study was to identify differences in climate vulnerability among three important reef-building coral species in the Florida Keys. Researchers...
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Climate change is expected to alter stream temperature and flow regimes over the coming decades, and in turn influence distributions of aquatic species in those freshwater ecosystems. To better anticipate these changes, there is a need to compile both short- and long-term stream temperature data for managers to gain an understanding of baseline conditions, historic trends, and future projections. Unfortunately, many agencies lack sufficient resources to compile, conduct quality assurance and control, and make accessible stream temperature data collected through routine monitoring. Yet, pooled data from many sources, even if temporally and spatially inconsistent, can have great value both in the realm of stream temperature...
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There have been increasing concerns regarding the decline in moose numbers along the southern range of their North American distribution. This has prompted varied research efforts to determine the factors contributing to the reduced local populations. Although heat stress from increasing temperatures could be a potential factor for declining populations in Minnesota, temperature increases have also occurred in New York, Massachusetts, and Connecticut where populations have been expanding in recent years. Alternatively, indirect climate effects from warmer temperatures may be playing a role, such as increased prevalence of parasites (e.g., brainworm, winter tick) to levels lethal to moose. Additionally, factors such...
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The forests of the Northeastern United States are home to some of the greatest diversity of nesting songbirds in the country. Climate change, shifts in natural disturbance regimes, and invasive species pose threats to forest habitats and bird species in the northeastern United States and represent major challenges to natural resource managers. Although broad adaptation approaches have been suggested for sustaining forested habitats under global change, it is unclear how effective the implementation of these strategies at local and regional scales will be for maintaining habitat conditions for a broad suite of forest-dependent bird species over time. Moreover, given the diversity in forest stakeholders across the...
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The stream systems of Hawai‘i are unique and home to many rare species, including five native fish and five native shellfish. These native species have amphidromous life cycles, meaning that they spend part of their lives in the ocean and part in freshwater streams. Stream flow serves as a vital natural pathway, connecting saltwater and freshwater habitats so that these animals can migrate between them and carry out critical life stages (e.g., development, reproduction). Over the last 20 years, the amount of rainfall in Hawai‘i has decreased, and climate models predict that this trend will continue. It is uncertain how reduced rainfall will affect stream flow and, consequently, the native stream species that depend...
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Increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation threaten the persistence of the Rio Grande cutthroat trout, the southernmost subspecies of cutthroat trout, found only in parts of New Mexico and Colorado. This subspecies appears to be more vulnerable to drought than more northern subspecies, because it occupies small and fragmented streams which are at greater risk of drying up during drought. Most notably, in 2002 drought in the Southwest resulted in the loss of 14 different Rio Grande cutthroat trout populations – about 10% of the total population. While it is known that drought is having an effect on Rio Grande cutthroat trout, the specific ways in which individuals and populations are affected by drought...
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Under the Endangered Species Act, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) must evaluate the status of at-risk plants and animals in the U.S. A Species Status Assessment (SSA) is a scientific assessment prepared for each at-risk species to help inform a range of management decisions under the Endangered Species Act. SSA’s are currently needed for more than 350 species, 250 of which are in the Southeast region alone. These species are threatened by several stressors including urbanization, loss of habitat, changes in streamflow and water quality, climate variability, and climate change. As part of the SSA process, teams must identify and assess risks to species or their habitat from changing climate, hydrology,...
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Barrier islands are exposed to a range of natural and human-caused changes, including hurricanes, sea-level rise, and dredging. These changes have the potential to influence the ability of barrier islands to serve as a first-line of defense for the mainland during storm events. Gulf Islands National Seashore, a National Park Service unit in the northern Gulf of Mexico between Florida and Mississippi, is predominantly comprised of barrier islands and faces immediate challenges, including erosion that washes out roads and sand dunes and the adverse impacts on cultural and natural resources from exposure to saltwater. Managers require realistic estimates of both the vulnerability of the park’s natural and cultural...
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Severe droughts cause widespread tree mortality and decreased growth in forests across the globe—even in areas with cooler climates. Mitigating the negative effects of climate change, in particular increased drought frequency and severity, poses a major challenge to forest managers. Managers are searching for strategies that minimize the negative effects of drought on forests (i.e. increase their resistance to drought) and maximize the ability of forests to recover after a drought (i.e. improve their resilience). Evidence suggests that forests with certain combinations of tree species, sizes, and stem densities are better able to withstand and recover from drought. The goal of this study was to identify which...
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Climate change poses a variety of threats to biodiversity. Most efforts to assess the likely impacts of climate change on biodiversity try to rank species based on their vulnerability under changed environmental conditions. These efforts have generally not considered the ability of organisms to adjust their phenotype to the changing environment. Organisms can do this by one of two ways. First, they can adjust their phenotype via non-evolutionary pathways. Second, they can undergo adaptive evolutionary change. We used two interconnected approaches to evaluate thermal adaptation capacity in a cold-water fish species. 1) Using tagging data, we estimated thermal performance curves for wild fish. The curves indicate...
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Walleye, a socially and economically important sportfish across much of North America, are experiencing population declines in many lakes throughout their range. Studies suggest that multiple factors – potentially linked to climate change – are contributing to the decline of walleye, including changes in lake temperatures, loss of habitat, increasing water clarity (perhaps due to drought), and interactions with other fish. This research seeks to identify the mechanisms that underlie declining walleye populations, particularly the low survival rate of young walleye. Data will be collected through a whole-lake experiment, an analysis of long-term data from lakes in northern Wisconsin, and simulation modeling. Members...
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The loggerhead sea turtle, found in the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans, is divided into nine distinct populations—five of which are federally endangered and four of which are federally threatened. Unfortunately, climate change may be putting the species at further risk. Sea-level rise, increased storm frequency, and changes in temperature and humidity could reduce the suitability of habitat used by loggerheads and other endangered sea turtles for nesting and feeding. This project assessed the vulnerability of key sea turtle nesting beaches to climate change in the Southeast. Researchers examined previous records of sea turtle nesting locations in the Southeast to identify the characteristics of these beaches,...
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Plants and animals undergo certain recurring life-cycle events, such as migrations between summer and winter habitats or the annual blooming of plants. Known as phenology, the timing of these events is very sensitive to changes in climate (and changes in one species’ phenology can impact entire food webs and ecosystems). Shifts in phenology have been described as a “fingerprint” of the temporal and spatial responses of wildlife to climate change impacts. Thus, phenology provides one of the strongest indicators of the adaptive capacity of organisms (or the ability of organisms to cope with future environmental conditions). In this study, researchers are exploring how the timing and occurrence of a number of highly...
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Maple syrup is produced from the sap of sugar maple trees collected in the late winter and early spring. Native American tribes have collected and boiled down sap for centuries, and the tapping of maple trees is a cultural touchstone for many people in the Northeast and Midwest. Overall demand for maple syrup has been rapidly rising as more people appreciate this natural sweetener. Yet because the tapping season is dependent on weather conditions, there is concern about the sustainability of maple sugaring as the region’s climate changes. The distribution of sugar maple could move north into Canada and the sap flow season may become shorter in the future. Not only could these changes affect producers and consumers...
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In the western U.S., rising temperatures and pronounced drought conditions pose significant challenges to public land managers. Widespread declines of multiple plant species have already been observed, providing insight into what the future could look like for vegetation in the region as conditions are projected to become warmer and drier. To understand how vulnerable western ecosystems are to drought, managers need to know which climatic and soil conditions cause habitats to change, and at what rate these changes may occur – important topics on which there is little available data. This project seeks to identify the vulnerability of habitats in the western U.S. to drought. Researchers will compare changes in...
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Fisheries in the glacial lakes region of the upper Midwest are culturally, economically, and recreationally beneficial. Walleye, for instance, represent an important subsistence food source for some Wisconsin tribal nations and are also popular among recreational anglers. However, predicted ecological changes to these aquatic communities, such as an increase in invasive fish species, a decrease in walleye and other native fishes, and worsening water quality due to increases in temperature and shifts in precipitation, has prompted concern among regional anglers who may abandon certain fisheries as these changes occur. Understanding how changes in climate may affect glacial lakes region fishes, and how fishery managers...
map background search result map search result map The Vulnerability of Sea Turtle Nesting Beaches to Climate Change in the Southeast Impact of Ocean Warming and Acidification on Growth of Reef-Building Corals NorEaST: A Tool to Understand the Responses of Fish to Changes in Stream Temperature Implications of Future Shifts in Migration, Spawning, and Other Life Events of Coastal Fish and Wildlife Species Forecasting Future Changes in Sagebrush Distribution and Abundance Understanding the Future of Red-Backed Salamanders as an Indicator of Future Forest Health Can Wildlife Species Evolve in Response to a Changing Climate? Informing Species Vulnerability Assessments Climate Effects on the Culture and Ecology of Sugar Maple Informing and Evaluating Forest Management Strategies to Promote Drought Resistance Assessing the Vulnerability of Dryland Ecosystems to Drought in the Western U.S. The Effects of Drought on Rio Grande Cutthroat Trout: The Role of Stream Flow and Temperature Assessing the Impact of Future Climate on Hawai‘i’s Aquatic Ecosystems Safe Operating Space for Walleye: Understanding the Conditions Needed to Sustain Recreational Fisheries in a Changing World How and Why is the Timing and Occurrence of Seasonal Migrants in the Gulf of Maine Changing Due to Climate? Moose Health in a Changing Environment Developing Adaptation Strategies for Recreational and Tribal Fisheries in the Upper Midwest Identifying and Evaluating Adaptation Science for Forest Habitats and Bird Communities in the Northeast Identifying the Ecological and Management Implications of Mangrove Migration in the Northern Gulf of Mexico Enhancing Coastal Adaptation Planning at Gulf Islands National Seashore Analysis and Visualization of Climate Information to Support USFWS Species Status Assessments The Vulnerability of Sea Turtle Nesting Beaches to Climate Change in the Southeast Enhancing Coastal Adaptation Planning at Gulf Islands National Seashore The Effects of Drought on Rio Grande Cutthroat Trout: The Role of Stream Flow and Temperature Assessing the Impact of Future Climate on Hawai‘i’s Aquatic Ecosystems Safe Operating Space for Walleye: Understanding the Conditions Needed to Sustain Recreational Fisheries in a Changing World Implications of Future Shifts in Migration, Spawning, and Other Life Events of Coastal Fish and Wildlife Species How and Why is the Timing and Occurrence of Seasonal Migrants in the Gulf of Maine Changing Due to Climate? Developing Adaptation Strategies for Recreational and Tribal Fisheries in the Upper Midwest Impact of Ocean Warming and Acidification on Growth of Reef-Building Corals Forecasting Future Changes in Sagebrush Distribution and Abundance Assessing the Vulnerability of Dryland Ecosystems to Drought in the Western U.S. Identifying the Ecological and Management Implications of Mangrove Migration in the Northern Gulf of Mexico Understanding the Future of Red-Backed Salamanders as an Indicator of Future Forest Health Can Wildlife Species Evolve in Response to a Changing Climate? Informing Species Vulnerability Assessments Identifying and Evaluating Adaptation Science for Forest Habitats and Bird Communities in the Northeast NorEaST: A Tool to Understand the Responses of Fish to Changes in Stream Temperature Climate Effects on the Culture and Ecology of Sugar Maple Informing and Evaluating Forest Management Strategies to Promote Drought Resistance Analysis and Visualization of Climate Information to Support USFWS Species Status Assessments Moose Health in a Changing Environment