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This data release contains monthly 270-meter resolution Basin Characterization Model (BCMv8) climate and hydrologic variables for Localized Constructed Analog (LOCA; Pierce et al., 2014)-downscaled Global Climate Models (GCMs) for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 (medium-low emissions) and 8.5 (high emissions) for hydrologic California. The 20 future climate scenarios consist of ten GCMs with RCP 4.5 and 8.5 each: ACCESS 1.0, CanESM2, CCSM4, CESM1-BGC, CMCC-CMS, CNRM-CM5, GFDL-CM3, HadGEM2-CC, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC5. The LOCA climate scenarios span water years 1950 to 2099 with greenhouse-gas forcings beginning in 2006. The LOCA downscaling method has been shown to produce better estimates of extreme...
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These model objects are the outputs of three Boosted Regression Tree models (for three different time periods) to explore the role of climate change and variability in driving ecological change and transformation. Response variables were the proportion of sites in each ecoregion with peak rates of change at 100-year time steps. Predictor variables included temperature anomaly, temperature trend, temperature variability, precipitation anomaly, precipitation trend, precipitation variability and ecoregion, also at 100-yr time steps. Models focused on the most distant time periods (0-21000 BP and 7500 - 21000 BP) show that rapid vegetation change was initiated across these landscapes once a 2 ℃ temperature increase...
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These model objects are the outputs of two Bayesian hierarchical models (one for the Middle Rockies and one for the Southern Rockies) to explore the role of landscape characteristics in climate-driven ecological change and transformation. We used the rate of change for each site at 100-yr time steps as the response variable, and included elevation, CHILI, aspect, slope, and TPI as fixed effects in the models, run separately for each ecoregion. We included a random intercept of site to quantify the magnitude of site-level variation in rate-of-change that may be unaccounted for by our covariates.
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This database integrates a list of vegetation transformations that occurred across the Southern and Middle Rockies since 21,000 years ago, the age of occurrence, the type of vegetation switch that occurred, whether the rates of vegetation change peaked at that time, and when applicable, the duration of peak rates of vegetation change.
    map background search result map search result map Future Climate and Hydrology from Twenty Localized Constructed Analog (LOCA) Scenarios and the Basin Characterization Model (BCMv8) Climate drivers of rapid ecological change at the landscape scale over the last 21,000 years in the Middle and Southern Rockies, U.S.A. The role of landscape characteristics in climate-driven rapid ecological change over the last 21,000 years in the Middle and Southern Rockies, U.S.A. Type and speed of vegetation transformations over the past 21,000 years in the Middle and Southern Rockies, U.S.A. Future Climate and Hydrology from Twenty Localized Constructed Analog (LOCA) Scenarios and the Basin Characterization Model (BCMv8) Climate drivers of rapid ecological change at the landscape scale over the last 21,000 years in the Middle and Southern Rockies, U.S.A. The role of landscape characteristics in climate-driven rapid ecological change over the last 21,000 years in the Middle and Southern Rockies, U.S.A. Type and speed of vegetation transformations over the past 21,000 years in the Middle and Southern Rockies, U.S.A.