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The Vulnerability of Forests to Climate Change and Wildfire in the Southwestern U.S. Fire in the western U.S. poses one of the greatest threats to human and ecological communities alike. In fact, fire management is the largest single expenditure of land management funds on federal lands. Now, climate change is altering wildfire patterns. Climate change in the West is creating warmer and drier conditions, resulting in an increase in the amount of dead vegetation available to fuel fires. This project sought to assess the vulnerability of forests in the southwestern U.S. to climate change and wildfire, in order to understand how these ecosystems might become altered as a result. Researchers (a) examined how climate change impacts wildfires in the region, to better understand fire risk; (b) identified... Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2012, CA, CASC, CO, Completed, All tags... Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Federal, Fire, Fire, Forests, Forests, Landscapes, Landscapes, NM, NV, OR, Plants, Plants, Projects by Region, Southwest, Southwest, Southwest CASC, Southwest US, UT, Wildlife and Plants, Wildlife and Plants, adaptive capacity, assessment, climate change, connectivity, ecosystem, ensemble, exposure, fire, forests, forests, management, model, multiple, prism, sensitivity, trees, vegetation, vulnerability, vulnerability assessment, wildfire, woodlands, woodlands, Fewer tags Reference period and projected environmental suitability scores-Oaks These data were generated with MAXENT 3.3.3k freeware (Phillips et al. 2011) using climate data and fire probability data for for three time periods: reference (1900-1929), mid-century (2040-2069) and late century (2070-2099), and community occurrence point data extracted from LANDFIRE Environmental Site Potential (ESP). Future time period data are from three global climate models (GCMs): CGCM, GFDL, and HadCM3. In MAXENT, we used the logistic output format (generating presence probabilities between 0 and 1), a random test percentage of 30 (using 70 % of the occurrence points to generate the suitability model and 30 % of the occurrence points to validate it), and a jackknife test to measure variable importance.... Categories: Data; Types: Downloadable, GeoTIFF, Map Service, Raster; Tags: Climate Change, Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Environmental Suitability Models, Fire, LANDFIRE, All tags... MAXENT, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Plants, South Central CASC, Texas, Wildlife and Plants, Fewer tags Potential climate change impacts on Greater sage grouse connectivity in the U.S. Northern Rockies Establishing connections among natural landscapes is the most frequently recommended strategy for adapting management of natural resources in response to climate change. The U.S. Northern Rockies still support a full suite of native wildlife, and survival of these populations depends on connected landscapes. Connected landscapes support current migration and dispersal as well as future shifts in species ranges that will be necessary for species to adapt to our changing climate. Working in partnership with state and federal resource managers and private land trusts, we sought to: 1) understand how future climate change may alter habitat composition of landscapes expected to serve as important connections for wildlife,... Categories: Data; Types: ArcGIS Map Package, Citation, Downloadable; Tags: Connectivity, Environment and Conservation, Forests, Grasslands and Plains, Greater sage grouse, All tags... Idaho, Landscapes, Mammals, Montana, North Central CASC, Rocky Mountains, United States, Wildlife and Plants, Wyoming, climate change, environment, environment, natural resource management, Fewer tags Fishtail catch: Indices and supporting data characterizing the current (1961-2000) and future (1961-2000) risk to fish habitat degradation in the Northeast Climate Science Center region This dataset represents results from this study attributed to the NHDPlus catchments. Human impacts occurring throughout the Northeast and Midwest United States, including urbanization, agriculture, and dams, have multiple effects on the region’s streams which support economically valuable stream fishes. Changes in climate are expected to lead to additional impacts in stream habitats and fish assemblages in multiple ways, including changing stream water temperatures. To manage streams for current impacts and future changes, managers need region-wide information for decision-making and developing proactive management strategies. Our project met that need by integrating results of a current condition assessment... Categories: Data; Types: Citation, Downloadable, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, Shapefile; Tags: Aquatic habitats, Connecticut, Data Visualization & Tools, Delaware, Fish, All tags... Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Northeast CASC, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Rivers, Streams and Lakes, Science Tools For Managers, Vermont, Virginia, Washington D.C., Water, Coasts and Ice, West Virginia, Wildlife and Plants, Wisconsin, climate change, climatologyMeteorologyAtmosphere, drainage basins, habitat fragmentation, inlandWaters, land use and land cover, rivers, streams, water quality, Fewer tags Evaluating Adaptive Capacity of Desert Bighorn Sheep to Climate Change: Identifying Genetic to Climate Adaptations in Native and Reintroduced Populations-Major Allele Frequency by Population Natural selection may result in local adaptation to different environmental conditions across the range of a species. Understanding local adaptation, in turn, informs management decisions such as translocation to restore locally-extinct populations. We used a landscape genomics approach to detect genetic signatures of selection related to climatic variation among desert bighorn sheep populations across their indigenous range in the western United States. This approach allowed us to investigate broad patterns of both neutral and adaptive genetic variation across very different environments. Analyses suggested that ancestry and isolation by distance were the most significant forces driving genetic variation in desert... Categories: Data; Tags: Arizona, California, Genetic capacity, Mammals, National CASC, All tags... Nevada, Wildlife and Plants, desert bighorn sheep, Fewer tags Fishtail reach: Indices and supporting data characterizing the current (1961-2000) and future (2041-2080) risk to fish habitat degradation in the Northeast Climate Science Center region This dataset represents results from this study attributed to the NHDPlus stream reach segments. Human impacts occurring throughout the Northeast and Midwest United States, including urbanization, agriculture, and dams, have multiple effects on the region’s streams which support economically valuable stream fishes. Changes in climate are expected to lead to additional impacts in stream habitats and fish assemblages in multiple ways, including changing stream water temperatures. To manage streams for current impacts and future changes, managers need region-wide information for decision-making and developing proactive management strategies. Our project met that need by integrating results of a current condition... Categories: Data; Types: Citation, Downloadable, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, Shapefile; Tags: Aquatic habitats, Connecticut, Data Visualization & Tools, Delaware, Fish, All tags... Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Northeast CASC, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Rivers, Streams and Lakes, Science Tools For Managers, Vermont, Virginia, Washington D.C., Water, Coasts and Ice, West Virginia, Wildlife and Plants, Wisconsin, climate change, climatologyMeteorologyAtmosphere, drainage basins, habitat fragmentation, inlandWaters, land use and land cover, rivers, streams, water quality, Fewer tags Northeast Climate Science Center Five-Year Review Report The American Fisheries Society and the Human Dimensions Research Unit of Cornell University have been engaged by NCCWSC to lead 5-year reviews of the CSCs. The purpose of the CSC review and evaluation is to: 1. Evaluate the effectiveness of each CSC in meeting project goals. 2. Assess the level of scientific contribution and achievement at each CSC with respect to climate modeling, climate change impacts assessments, vulnerability and adaptation of fish, wildlife and their habitats, and collaborative development of adaptation strategies for regional stakeholders, and education and training of graduate and post‐doctoral fellows 3. Evaluate the competencies and efficiencies of each host university in managing... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: National CASC, Science Tools for Managers, Social Science U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast (TX, MS, AL, and FL) Macroclimate Soil Data (2013-2014) The northern Gulf of Mexico coast spans two major climate gradients and represents an excellent natural laboratory for developing climate-influenced ecological models. In this project, we used these zones of remarkable transition to develop macroclimate-based models for quantifying the regional responses of coastal wetland ecosystems to climate variation. In addition to providing important fish and wildlife habitat and supporting coastal food webs, these coastal wetlands provide many ecosystem goods and services including clean water, stable coastlines, food, recreational opportunities, and stored carbon. Our objective was to examine and forecast the effects of macroclimatic drivers on wetland ecosystem structure... Categories: Data; Types: Citation; Tags: Corpus Christi, Galveston, Grand Bay, Gulf of Mexico, Laguna Madre, All tags... Port Aransas, San Antonio, Sea-Level Rise and Coasts, Slidell, South Central CASC, State of Alabama, State of Florida, State of Louisiana, State of Mississippi, State of Texas, Tampa Bay, Ten Thousand Islands, Water, Coasts and Ice, Weeks Bay, Wetlands, bulk density, bulk density, environment, environment, moisture, soil, soil, soil organic matter, soil organic matter, Fewer tags Model output from Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System simulations in the Rio Grande Headwaters, Colorado, for water years 1980 through 2017 The U.S. Geological Survey Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) was used to assess the effects of changing climate and land disturbance on seasonal streamflow in the Rio Grande Headwaters (RGHW) region. Three applications of PRMS in the RGHW were used to simulate 1) baseline effects of climate (see RGHW-PRMS_baseline_simulation.zip), 2) effects of bark-beetle induced tree mortality (see RGHW-PRMS_BB_simulation.zip), and 3) effects of wildfire (see RGHW-PRMS_fire_simulation.zip), on components of the hydrologic cycle by hydrologic response unit (HRU) and subsequent seasonal streamflow runoff from April through September for water years 1980 through 2017. Select PRMS output variables for each simulation are... Categories: Data; Tags: Data Visualization & Tools, Del Norte, Rio Grande, Rivers, Streams and Lakes, Science Tools For Managers, All tags... South Central CASC, South Fork Rio Grande, Water, Coasts and Ice, streamflow modeling, water supply and demand, Fewer tags Evaluating Adaptive Capacity of Desert Bighorn Sheep to Climate Change: Identifying Genetic Links to Climate Adaptations Natural selection may result in local adaptation to different environmental conditions across the range of a species. Understanding local adaptation, in turn, informs management decisions such as translocation to restore locally-extinct populations. We used a landscape genomics approach to detect genetic signatures of selection related to climatic variation among desert bighorn sheep populations across their indigenous range in the western United States. This approach allowed us to investigate broad patterns of both neutral and adaptive genetic variation across very different environments. Analyses suggested that ancestry and isolation by distance were the most significant forces driving genetic variation in desert... Tags: Arizona, California, Data, Data Release, Genetic capacity, All tags... Mammals, National CASC, Nevada, USGS Science Data Catalog (SDC), Wildlife and Plants, desert bighorn sheep, Fewer tags Landward migration of tidal saline wetlands with sea-level rise and urbanization: a comparison of northern Gulf of Mexico estuaries Coastal wetland ecosystems are expected to migrate landward in response to accelerated sea-level rise. However, due to differences in topography and coastal urbanization extent, estuaries vary in their ability to accommodate wetland migration. The landward movement of wetlands requires suitable conditions, such as a gradual slope and land free of urban development. Urban barriers can constrain migration and result in wetland loss (coastal squeeze). For future-focused conservation planning purposes, there is a pressing need to quantify and compare the potential for wetland landward movement and coastal squeeze. For 41 estuaries in the northern Gulf of Mexico (i.e., the USA gulf coast), we quantified and compared... Categories: Data; Types: Citation, Downloadable, Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, Shapefile; Tags: Alabama, Florida, Gulf of Mexico, Louisiana, Mississippi, All tags... North America, Sea-Level Rise and Coasts, South Central CASC, Southeast CASC, Texas, USGS Science Data Catalog (SDC), United States, Water, Coasts and Ice, Wetlands, biota, climate change, climate change, effects of climate change, environment, estuaries, estuary, natural resource management, planning Cadastre, sea level change, sea-level change, wetlands, wetlands, Fewer tags Reference period and projected environmental suitability scores-Mesquite These data were generated with MAXENT 3.3.3k freeware (Phillips et al. 2011) using climate data and fire probability data for for three time periods: reference (1900-1929), mid-century (2040-2069) and late century (2070-2099), and community occurrence point data extracted from LANDFIRE Environmental Site Potential (ESP). Future time period data are from three global climate models (GCMs): CGCM, GFDL, and HadCM3. In MAXENT, we used the logistic output format (generating presence probabilities between 0 and 1), a random test percentage of 30 (using 70 % of the occurrence points to generate the suitability model and 30 % of the occurrence points to validate it), and a jackknife test to measure variable importance.... Categories: Data; Types: Downloadable, GeoTIFF, Map Service, Raster; Tags: Climate Change, Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Environmental Suitability Models, Fire, LANDFIRE, All tags... MAXENT, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Plants, South Central CASC, Texas, Wildlife and Plants, Fewer tags Reference period and projected environmental suitability scores-Pinyon-Juniper These data were generated with MAXENT 3.3.3k freeware (Phillips et al. 2011) using climate data and fire probability data for for three time periods: reference (1900-1929), mid-century (2040-2069) and late century (2070-2099), and community occurrence point data extracted from LANDFIRE Environmental Site Potential (ESP). Future time period data are from three global climate models (GCMs): CGCM, GFDL, and HadCM3. In MAXENT, we used the logistic output format (generating presence probabilities between 0 and 1), a random test percentage of 30 (using 70 % of the occurrence points to generate the suitability model and 30 % of the occurrence points to validate it), and a jackknife test to measure variable importance.... Categories: Data; Types: Downloadable, GeoTIFF, Map Service, Raster; Tags: Climate Change, Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Environmental Suitability Models, Fire, LANDFIRE, All tags... MAXENT, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Plants, South Central CASC, Texas, Wildlife and Plants, Fewer tags Fire and climate suitability for woody vegetation communities in south central United States-Data Three .csv files contain occurrence points (longitude and latitude) for three woody vegetation communities found in Texas, Oklahoma and New Mexico. Points were extracted from publicly available LANDFIRE Environmental Site Potential 30 m raster downgraded to 1 km using a majority classification algorithm. The three communities are an oak type (dominated by Quercus stellata and Q. marilandica), a mesquite type (dominated by Prosopis glandulosa and P. velutina), and a pinyon-juniper type (dominated by Pinus edulis and Juniperus osteosperma). The 21 rasters contain environmental suitability scores for each of the three communities, generated with MAXENT freeware using historic and projected climate and fire probability... Tags: Climate Change, Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Environmental Site Potential, Environmental Suitability Models, Fire, All tags... LANDFIRE, MAXENT, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Plants, South Central CASC, Texas, Type localities, Wildlife and Plants, Fewer tags Supporting data for “A Glacier Runoff Extension to the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System” This product is an archive of the modeling artifacts used to produce a journal paper (Van Beusekom and Viger, 2016). The abstract for that paper follows. A module to simulate glacier runoff, PRMSglacier, was added to PRMS (Precipitation Runoff Modeling System), a distributed-parameter, physical-process hydrological simulation code. The extension does not require extensive on-glacier measurements or computational expense but still relies on physical principles over empirical relations as much as is feasible while maintaining model usability. PRMSglacier is validated on two basins in Alaska, Wolverine, and Gulkana Glacier basin, which have been studied since 1966 and have a substantial amount of data with which to... Categories: Data; Tags: Geography, Glaciers and Permafrost, Northwest CASC, Rivers, Streams and Lakes, USGS Science Data Catalog (SDC), All tags... Water Resources, Water, Coasts and Ice, Fewer tags Winter climate change and coastal wetland foundation species in the southeastern United States In this study, we investigated the potential effect of winter climate change upon salt marsh and mangrove forest foundation species in the southeastern United States. Our research addresses the following three questions: (1) What is the relationship between winter climate and the presence and abundance of mangrove forests relative to salt marshes; (2) How vulnerable are salt marshes to winter climate change-induced mangrove forest range expansion; and (3) What is the potential future distribution and relative abundance of mangrove forests under alternative winter climate change scenarios? We developed simple winter climate-based models to predict mangrove forest distribution and relative abundance using observed... Categories: Data; Tags: Ecology, Forests, Grasslands and Plains, Gulf of Mexico, Land Use Change, All tags... Landscapes, Sea-Level Rise and Coasts, Southeast CASC, USGS Science Data Catalog (SDC), Water, Coasts and Ice, Wetlands, biogeography, effects of climate change, land use and land cover, vegetation, wetland ecosystems, Fewer tags Stream Temperature Data in the Willow-Whitehorse watershed of SE Oregon, 2011-15 This dataset includes stream temperatures from a network of 100 data loggers that was installed throughout the Willow-Whitehorse watershed of SE Oregon in September 2014, as well as 10 additional sites that were installed in 2011 and 2012, before and after a 2012 fire that burned nearly the entire watershed. Data loggers were downloaded in August 2015. A spatial data layer contains the site locations and associated information about the sites, along with summary temperature information and a comparison to modeled stream temperatures (NorWeST). Categories: Data; Types: Citation; Tags: Drought, Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, GNIS ID 1129010, GNIS ID 1129139, Harney County, All tags... Malheur County, National CASC, Oregon, Rivers, Streams and Lakes, Stream / River, Stream temperature, Trout Creek Mountains, USGS, Water, Coasts and Ice, Watershed, Whitehorse Creek, Willow Creek, inlandWaters, water temperature, Fewer tags Temperature thresholds for black mangrove (Avicennia germinans) freeze damage, mortality, and recovery in North America: refining tipping points for range expansion in a warming climate To advance understanding of mangrove range dynamics in eastern North America, there is a need to refine temperature thresholds for mangrove freeze damage, mortality, and recovery. Here, We integrated data from 38 sites spread across the mangrove range edge in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coasts of the southeastern United States, including data from a regional collaborative network called the Mangrove Migration Network (https://www.usgs.gov/centers/wetland-and-aquatic-research-center-warc/science/mangrove-migration-network). In 2018, an extreme freeze event affected 60 percent of these sites, with minimum temperatures ranging from 0 to -7 degrees Celsius. We used temperature data and vegetation measurements from... Categories: Data; Tags: Ecology, Gulf of Mexico, Land Use Change, Southeast CASC, USGS Science Data Catalog (SDC), All tags... Water, Coasts and Ice, Wetlands, climate change, coastal ecosystems, mangroves, species geographic range, Fewer tags Probability of Streamflow Permanence (PROSPER) Model Output Layers The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed the PRObability of Streamflow PERmanence (PROSPER) model, a GIS raster-based empirical model that provides streamflow permanence probabilities (probabilistic predictions) of a stream channel having year-round flow for any unregulated and minimally-impaired stream channel in the Pacific Northwest region, U.S. The model provides annual predictions for 2004-2016 at a 30-m spatial resolution based on monthly or annually updated values of climatic conditions and static physiographic variables associated with the upstream basin (Raw streamflow permanence probability rasters). Predictions correspond to pixels on the channel network consistent with the medium resolution National... Categories: Data Release - Revised; Tags: Climatology, Data Visualization & Tools, Data Visualization & Tools, Drought, Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, All tags... Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather, Hydrogeology, Idaho, Montana, NHD Region 17, Nevada, Northwest CASC, Oregon, Pacific Northwest, Rivers, Streams and Lakes, Science Tools For Managers, Science Tools For Managers, USGS Science Data Catalog (SDC), Utah, Washington, Water Resources, Water, Coasts and Ice, Water, Coasts and Ice, Wyoming, inlandWaters, streamflow, Fewer tags South Central Climate Science Center Five-Year Review Report The American Fisheries Society and the Human Dimensions Research Unit of Cornell University have been engaged by NCCWSC to lead 5-year reviews of the CSCs. The purpose of the CSC review and evaluation is to: 1. Evaluate the effectiveness of each CSC in meeting project goals. 2. Assess the level of scientific contribution and achievement at each CSC with respect to climate modeling, climate change impacts assessments, vulnerability and adaptation of fish, wildlife and their habitats, and collaborative development of adaptation strategies for regional stakeholders, and education and training of graduate and post‐doctoral fellows 3. Evaluate the competencies and efficiencies of each host university in managing... Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: National CASC, Science Tools for Managers, Social Science « 1 2 3 »