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Biodiversity is declining worldwide, and this trend could potentially become more severe as climate conditions change. An integral component of proactive adaptive management planning requires forecasts of how changes in climate will affect individual species. This need has been identified my multiple federal agencies, including the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, National Park Service, Bureau of Land Management, and U.S. Forest Service. The goal of this project was to assist land and wildlife managers in anticipating which species are most vulnerable to changes in climate in the Southwest, and how resources can best be invested to facilitate adaptation. Researchers evaluated the current and future breeding ranges...
California’s native fishes are mostly endemic, with no place to go as climate change increases water temperatures and alters stream flows. Many of the alien fishes, however, are likely to benefit from the effects of climate change. The goal of this project is to synthesize life history traits, population trends, status, and threats, including climate change, for all fishes in the state. We have found that 25% of the endemic fishes are now in danger of extinction. Climate change in conjunction with alien species, agriculture, and dams pose the greatest threat to native fishes. Preliminary results from two regional analyses suggest that native fishes in the Sierra Nevada are slightly less (74%) vulnerable to climate...
This project developed a foundation for monitoring environmental change by identifying where and what to monitor in order to evaluate climate-change impacts. Phase 1 focused on landbirds, however a framework will be developed that recommends standardized monitoring for other taxa and environmental attributes. Phase II Deliverables produced as part of this proposed work include a Business Plan that 1) refines site selection by developing a decision model in combination with analyses of sites (or clusters of sites) arrayed by climate space, 2) works with the LCC science committee, Joint Ventures, and other partners to choose a manageable number of core monitoring variables, 3) develops and/or adopting existing protocols...
In its first funded year this project created an online environment in which land managers and their technical support staff can quickly find the climate adaptation information they need and communicate with the researchers producing the data. Phase 2 of the project focused on reaching out to the user community to get them engaged in the Climate Commons, and continuing development of the site. In year 3 and beyond, the Climate Commons became the CA LCC’s project data management platform as well as a digital library offering a starting place to find climate change science relevant to conservation decision-making. http://climate.calcommons.org.
Categories: Data, Project; Tags: 2011, 2012, Academics & scientific researchers, Applications and Tools, CA, All tags...
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In California, increased wildfire activity has been linked to decreasing snowpack and earlier snowmelt. Not only has this translated into a longer fire season, but reduced snowpack has cascading effects that impact streamflow, water supplies, agricultural productivity, and ecosystems. California receives 80% of its precipitation during the winter, so mountain snowpack plays a critical role in replenishing the state’s water supply. One factor that affects the amount of winter precipitation (and therefore snowpack) in California is the North Pacific Jet (NPJ)—a current of strong, high altitude winds that occur over the northern Pacific Ocean. Winters when the NPJ is located further north than normal are drier than...
Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service, Report; Tags: 2013, CA, CA-wide, CASC, Completed, All tags...
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Changing climate conditions have been identified as a major threat to the sustainability and availability of water resources in the Southwestern U.S. Long-term decreases in precipitation can lead to reductions in regional groundwater levels and loss of groundwater storage in aquifers for some communities. Reduced precipitation can also lead to lower water levels in streams and losses in the vegetation that grows alongside riverbanks. The goal of this project was to identify how hydrologic systems in the Southwest might respond to changes in climate and the degree to which this response is dependent on the characteristics of the hydrologic system. To do this, researchers developed a tool that simulates how quickly...
The California Invasive Plant Council (Cal-IPC) developed a “risk mapping” approach that combines comprehensive distribution maps with maps of current and future suitable range to show where each (invasive) species is likely to spread. The distribution maps are based on a new dataset created through a major campaign to collect expert opinion data from local resource managers across the state. From this dataset, Cal-IPC recently completed risk maps and management recommendations for 43 invasive plant species in the Sierra Nevada. The proposed project will build an online tool for these data. The tool will allow natural resource managers to generate risk maps and summary statistics for areas they select, and to determine...
Categories: Data, Project; Tags: 2010, 2012, 2013, Applications and Tools, CA, All tags...
This project helps the Central Valley Joint Venture (CVJV) track gains and losses of key bird and waterfowl habitats at a landscape scale. This will allow the CVJV to effectively monitor and evaluate habitats essential to conservation planning for wildlife species. This work is important for identifying, assembling, and analyzing data for key habitats of concern and will provide a foundation for future monitoring.
This project researched the expected variation in avian demographic responses to environmental change across a gradient of species and landscapes from the San Francisco Bay to the Central Valley of California. We used two avian taxa, waterfowl and songbirds, as case studies for the integration of long-term demographic data with climate change variables. For each taxon, we assessed and synthesized several demographic responses to climate change variables (i.e., precipitation and temperature) to explore the relationship between four large-scale climate indices and bird species arrival dates and nest survival. A web-based application provides natural resource managers with project results.
This project brought together natural resource managers, conservation coordinators and planners, and scientists working at multiple scales within the San Francisco Bay to develop a spatially-explicit decision framework that cuts across jurisdictional boundaries while accounting for uncertainties about climate change. In particular, the SDM framework allows managers within the Bay to identify a recommended strategy among a set of alternative strategies that may vary among its subregions (e.g. North Bay, South Bay, East Bay). Management priorities will be those that yield the greatest expected conservation benefits across the Bay considering multiple objectives including endangered species recovery (e.g. California...
Why Rangelands: The Central Valley of California, the surrounding foothills and the interior Coast Range include over 18 million acres of grassland. Most of this land is privately owned and managed for livestock production. Because grasslands are found in some of California’s fastest-growing counties, they are severely threatened by land conversion and development. In addition climate change stresses grasslands by potentially changing water availability and species distributions.Maintaining a ranching landscape can greatly support biodiversity conservation in the California Landscape Conservation Cooperative (LCC) region. In addition ranches generate multiple ecosystem services—defined as human benefits provided...
Categories: Data, Project; Tags: 2011, 2012, 2013, Applications and Tools, CA, All tags...
To be successful, natural resource managers need to synthesize diverse information on the effects of management actions, climate change and other stressors on wildlife populations at appropriate scales. The project team developed a Decision Support Tool (DST) that integrates the results of multi-disciplinary, multi-taxa modeling allowing users to project outcomes of conservation actions, accounting for effects of climate change and other stressors. This DST builds on work to improve a sea level rise tool for adaptive tidal wetland restoration and management. The DST provides information on how restoration can increase population resilience and long-term persistence at multiple scales for multiple species throughout...
This project supports a collaborative, multi-stakeholder effort led by the U.S. Forest Service (USFS) to develop a largescale vulnerability assessment and associated adaptation strategies for focal resources of the Sierra Nevada. The purpose of this effort is to provide information and tools for Forest Planning and management (e.g., NEPA analyses, Forest Plan revisions, Climate Scorecard) and other natural resource management (e.g., SWAP) and conservation efforts to prepare for climate change impacts in the Sierra Nevada. Specifically, our objectives are to: (1) assess the vulnerability of focal resources to climate change, (2) use spatial analysis and expert input to prioritize conservation areas or actions, and...
Categories: Data, Project; Tags: 2012, 2013, Applications and Tools, CA, California Landscape Conservation Cooperative, All tags...
This project is analyzing downscaled climate model data to assess the geography of climate change at scales relevant to actual conservation actions. This work analyzes the California Essential Habitat Connectivity products to determine which protected lands are most vulnerable and which of the proposed corridors would partially mitigate climate change threats.


map background search result map search result map Identifying the Vulnerability of Birds and Reptiles to Changes in Climate in the Southwest Improving Groundwater Supply Forecasting in the Southwestern U.S. The Influence of the North Pacific Jet Stream on Future Fire in California Improving Groundwater Supply Forecasting in the Southwestern U.S. The Influence of the North Pacific Jet Stream on Future Fire in California Identifying the Vulnerability of Birds and Reptiles to Changes in Climate in the Southwest