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Future climate conditions in the Upper Mississippi River Basin are projected to include many more extreme precipitation events. These intense periods of rain can lead to flooding of the Mississippi River itself, as well the small streams and rivers that feed it. This flooding presents a challenge for local communities, farmers, small businesses, river users, and the ecosystems and wildlife in the area. To reduce the damage done by these extreme rainfall events, ‘natural solutions’ are often helpful. This might include preserving forests and grasslands to absorb rainwater before it arrives at streams or restoring wetlands to slow and clean runoff water. For river and natural resource managers to adapt to future climate...
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The beaches of the Hawaiian Islands attract nearly 9 million visitors each year, who inject around $15.6 billion into the state’s economy and support almost 200,000 jobs. Beyond their economic importance, Hawaiian beaches are also culturally and ecologically valuable. However, climate change driven sea-level rise is causing many beaches to disappear, endangering property, infrastructure, and critical habitats. The goal of this project was to develop a method for forecasting erosion-vulnerable beach areas that could be used in coastal management planning. Researchers focused on the island of Kauaʻi, modeling beach response to rising sea level over the next century and producing maps that provide information about...
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The Midwest has experienced some of the costliest flooding events in U.S. history, including many billions of dollars during the past decade alone. The Midwest’s susceptibility to flooding has been exacerbated by a long-term increase in total precipitation and extreme rainfalls, with the 2010s being the region’s wettest decade on record Climate models strongly indicate that these recent trends will continue, such that the warming Midwest will experience wetter winters and springs, shortened snow seasons, and extreme year-round precipitation in the future. Despite this high level of confidence in climate trends, there is limited knowledge of how these will translate to flood likelihood and the associated societal...
Streams are classified as perennial (flowing uninterrupted, year-round) or intermittent (flowing part of the year) or ephemeral (flowing only during rainfall events). The classifications of “streamflow permanence” were primarily established in the middle 20th century and are often outdated and inaccurate today if they were not adjusted for changes in land use, wildfires, or climate. Understanding where streams are perennial is important for a variety of reasons. For example, perennial streams receive special regulatory protections under a variety of statutes, and provide important habitat for fish, wildlife, and other species. To predict the likelihood that streams are perennial, we compiled nearly 25,000 observations...
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Hourly hydrometeorological data was collected over the 30-year period from 1984-2014 in Upper Sheep Creek, within the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed, Idaho, USA. These data were used to calibrate the one-dimensional Simultaneous Heat and Water (SHAW) model. These data and the SHAW calibration have previously been described in multiple publications, particularly Chauvin et al 2011 and Flerchinger et al 2016. In the dataset presented here, climate scenarios have been constructed, applied to the historic record, simulated in the SHAW model, and hydrologic results have been analyzed. These data include the following: (1) uscData. These are the historical data described above, prepared for input into the SHAW...
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Characterized by their extreme size, intensity, and severity, megafires are the most destructive, dangerous, and costly wildfires in the U.S. Over the past two decades, megafires have become more frequent in Oklahoma and Texas along with increasing extreme weather events and changes to fuel types caused by woody plant encroachment into grasslands. As climate change and woody plant encroachment are expected to continue or even accelerate, it is important to evaluate megafire risks and locate high-risk areas. This project will develop a new Megafire Risk Evaluation System (MERES) and make future projections of megafire probability in Oklahoma and Texas from 2024 to 2100. Outcomes and products from this project will...
Abstract (from ZSL): The use of remote cameras is widespread in wildlife ecology, yet few examples exist of their utility for collecting environmental data. We used a novel camera trap method to evaluate the accuracy of gridded snow data in a mountainous region of the northeastern US. We were specifically interested in assessing (1) how snow depth observations from remote cameras compare with gridded climate data, (2) the sources of error associated with the gridded data and (3) the influence of spatial sampling on bias. We compared daily observations recorded by remote cameras with Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS ) gridded predictions using data from three winters (2014–2016). Snow depth observations were...
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Wildfires scorched 10 million acres across the United States in 2015, and for the first time on record, wildfire suppression costs topped $2 billion. Wildfire danger modeling is an important tool for understanding when and where wildfires will occur, and recent work by our team in the South Central United States has shown wildfire danger models may be improved by incorporating soil moisture information. Advancements in wildfire danger modeling may increase wildfire preparedness, and therefore decrease loss of life, property, and habitat due to wildfire. Still, soil moisture—an important determinant of wildfire risk—is not currently used for wildfire danger assessments because data are generally unavailable at the...
This downloadable PDF research feature summarizes the Pacific Islands Climate Science Center-supported project "Climate Change Research in Support of Hawaiian Ecosystem Management: An Integrated Approach". The key goals of this project were 1) to understand how changes in the Earth’s future climate system will affect the frequency and severity of extreme weather events in Hawai`i, 2) to support studies of the ecological impacts of climate change on native Hawaiian plants and animals and 3) to provide information needed by natural resource managers charged with preserving native biodiversity.
This webinar was recorded on May 7, 2015. Sustainable management of natural resources under competing demands is challenging, particularly when faced with novel and uncertain future climatic conditions. Meeting this challenge requires the consideration of information about the effects of management, disturbance, land use, and climate change on ecosystems. State-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) provide a flexible framework for integrating landscape processes and comparing alternative management scenarios, but incorporating climate change is an active area of research. In this presentation, three researchers present work funded by Climate Science Centers across the country to incorporate climate projections...
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Climate change is one of the most pressing issues facing natural resource management. The disruptions it is causing require that we change the way we consider conservation and resource management in order to ensure the future of habitats, species, and human communities. Practitioners often struggle with how to identify and prioritize specific climate adaptation actions (CAAs). Management actions may have a higher probability of being successful if they are informed by available scientific knowledge and findings; a systematic review process provides a mechanism to scientifically assess management questions. By evaluating specific actions on scientific knowledge and findings, we may be able to increase management...
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The threat of droughts and their associated impacts on the landscape and human communities have long been recognized in the United States, especially in high risk areas such as the southcentral region. This project examines whether existing drought indices can predict the occurrence of drought events and their actual damages, how the adaptive capacity (i.e., resilience) varies across space, and what public outreach and engagement effort would be most effective for mitigation of risk and impacts. The study region includes all 503 counties in Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas. This data set was created to assess the community resilience to the drought hazards using the Resilience Inference Measurement...
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In the Northwest U.S., warming temperatures and changing precipitation patterns will likely result in significantly altered snowpack, stream flows, and water availability. Along with these changes comes an increased risk of “ecological drought”, or periods of water stress that impact ecosystems and the services they provide –which can ultimately impact human communities. More frequent and severe ecological droughts have the potential to push ecosystems beyond their ability to recover, resulting in complete changes in ecosystem composition and function. Ecological drought will only worsen existing management challenges, such as competition for water resources, habitat degradation, invasive species, and more frequent...
The area burned by wildfires has increased in recent decades and is expected to increase in the future for many watersheds worldwide due to climate change. Burned areas within watersheds increase soil erosion rates, which can increase the downstream accumulation of sediment in rivers and reservoirs. Using an ensemble of climate, fire, and erosion models, we show that post-fire sedimentation is projected to increase for more than ¾ of watersheds by at least 10 % and for more than ¼ of watersheds by at least 100 % by the 2041 to 2050 decade in the western USA. In this region, 65 % of the water supply originates from forested lands that are prone to wildfire, and many of the watersheds with projected increases in sedimentation...
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The files in the sub-folder "1. Juvenile coho salmon abundance and survival" consist of fish survey data and the associated analysis. The file "02_Fish survey data_all events_2019-11-27.csv" contains the actual fish survey data that was collected in Mason Creek, tributary of East Fork Lewis River, SW Washington, during summer of 2017. The protocol for the fish surveys are outline in the file "Fish Rescue Field Protocol_2017_FINAL VERSION_2017-06-01.pdf". The abundance and survival analysis can be found in the file "Juvenile MR abundance_Coho_02Contraints_2019-12-02.R". This file should be loaded through the .Rproj file "Fish Abundance.Rproj". There are many files needed to run the analysis that consist of summaries...
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Freshwater mussels are an important component of freshwater ecosystems. They can filter a large amount of water, affecting both water clarity and water chemistry. Their shells provide physical habitat for other organisms, they re-direct necessary nutrients to the bottom of the water column, and their excreted material can enhance the growth of algae and macroinvertebrates. However, dramatic declines of freshwater mussels have occurred due to habitat loss, destruction and modification, pollution, and invasive species. One mussel species in Texas (Texas Hornshell) has been listed as endangered under the Endangered Species Act and several other species are candidates for listing. Changes in precipitation patterns...
To improve understanding of streamflow permanence in the Pacific Northwest, we have developed a method for predicting the annual probability of year-round streamflow at 30-meter intervals. The approach involves collecting and processing nearly 24,000 streamflow observations into “wet” or “dry” values, and synchronizing them with 291 predictor datasets that represent physical (one-time values) and climatic (monthly or annual values) conditions associated with the upstream area for each 30-meter point along streams in the Pacific Northwest. Both of these datasets are among the first of their kind and shed light on the scientific opportunities that ‘Big Data’ techniques allow for. The predictive models developed from...
map background search result map search result map Forecasting Beach Loss from Sea-Level Rise on the Island of Kauaʻi The Available Science Assessment Process (ASAP): Evaluating the Science behind Climate Adaptation Actions Combined county-level drought incidence, damage, and census data Hydrologic sensitivity to climate change and aspen mortality in Upper Sheep Creek, Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed (21st century scenarios) Wildfire Probability Mapping Based on Regional Soil Moisture Models Extremes to Ex-Streams: Informing Ecological Drought Adaptation in the Northwest Assessing the Impacts of Rapid Rainfall Shifts (“Whiplashes” and “Boomerangs”) on Freshwater Mussels in Central Texas Juvenile coho salmon stream survey data and associated analysis to estimate abundance and survival in Mason Creek, tributary of East Fork Lewis River, SW Washington, during summer of 2017 Workshop: Natural Solutions to Ecological and Economic Problems Caused by Extreme Precipitation Events in the Upper Mississippi River Basin The Combined Effects of Seasonal Climate and Extreme Precipitation on Flood Hazard in the Midwest Megafire Risk Evaluation System (MERES) for the Southern Great Plains Juvenile coho salmon stream survey data and associated analysis to estimate abundance and survival in Mason Creek, tributary of East Fork Lewis River, SW Washington, during summer of 2017 Forecasting Beach Loss from Sea-Level Rise on the Island of Kauaʻi Hydrologic sensitivity to climate change and aspen mortality in Upper Sheep Creek, Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed (21st century scenarios) The Available Science Assessment Process (ASAP): Evaluating the Science behind Climate Adaptation Actions Extremes to Ex-Streams: Informing Ecological Drought Adaptation in the Northwest Workshop: Natural Solutions to Ecological and Economic Problems Caused by Extreme Precipitation Events in the Upper Mississippi River Basin The Combined Effects of Seasonal Climate and Extreme Precipitation on Flood Hazard in the Midwest Assessing the Impacts of Rapid Rainfall Shifts (“Whiplashes” and “Boomerangs”) on Freshwater Mussels in Central Texas Megafire Risk Evaluation System (MERES) for the Southern Great Plains Wildfire Probability Mapping Based on Regional Soil Moisture Models Combined county-level drought incidence, damage, and census data