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The smallmouth bass (SMB) is a widespread species with a distribution that extends throughout the eastern and central U.S., in addition to introduced populations in other regions. From a management perspective, the SMB is important both as a popular sport fish and as a threat to native species where it is present outside of its natural range. Understanding the population-level responses of this species to environmental change is thus a priority for fisheries resource managers. This project aimed to explicitly model the impacts of projected climate and land use change on the growth, population dynamics, and distribution of stream-dwelling SMB in the U.S. Impacts on growth and demographic variables were modeled using...
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This project produced land use change change forecasts for the United States at the national scale, based on the National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD) 2001. Both urban and agricultural expansion were modeled at 300-meter resolution at ten-year intervals from 2010 to 2050.
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The goal of the glacial lakes regional study was to predict the impacts of climate and land use change on coldwater fish habitat in the glacial lakes region, which covers most of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan. The study includes both top-level, regional analyses and more detailed case studies of individual lakes. The goal of this project was to provide (1) projections of land use and climate change impacts on the trophic status of Midwestern coldwater glacial lakes, (2) projections of land use and climate change impacts on the regional distribution of coldwater lake oxythermal habitat, and (3) guidance on the types of coldwater lakes in which locations will be the most or least vulnerable to land use and climate...
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This project built on an existing regional conservation partnership to use the most recent downscaled climate model projections to forecast the likely impacts of climate change to species and ecosystems in the Lower Mississippi Valley (LMV). The objective of this work was to develop and test ecological and biological models to facilitate regional adaptive management of wildlife resources and the forest and wetland ecosystems that support them in the LMV. The modeled projections were then used to evaluate climate change effects on high priority bird species, waterfowl, amphibians, and fisheries. In particular, the researchers sought to answer two key questions: (1) what are the impacts of predicted climate change...
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The overall goal of the Midwestern regional-scale assessment was to identify river reaches in the Glacial Lakes Partnership regions (focusing on Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin) that are most vulnerable to potential impacts of projected climate and land use changes. Because fish assemblages are strongly influenced by river water temperature and flow regimes, which are in turn affected by climate and land-use conditions, we will attempt to model fish habitat response to climate and land use changes through changes in temperature and flow. This project intended to: (1) develop three models that predict daily summer temperature for all river reaches in each state; (2) develop a single model to predict non-winter...
The southeastern U.S. contains highly diverse ecosystems that are increasingly threatened by human-induced environmental changes and that require increasingly intensive management to avoid negative impacts on native biota. Climate change is one aspect of landscape alteration that is particularly challenging to conservation planners and managers. Previous conservation planning efforts identified and prioritized areas for conservation based on current environmental conditions, such as habitat quality, and assumed that conditions in conservation lands would be largely controlled by management actions (including no action). Climate change, however, will likely alter important system drivers (e.g., temperature, precipitation,...
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Florida is home to 50 endangered species, 23 National Wildlife Refuges, 9 national parks, and 119 state parks. Straddling both temperate and sub-tropical zones, the state is also unique in that it is a long and narrow peninsula, surrounded on three sides by warm water, creating a dynamic environment. The impacts of climate change, such as sea-level rise and severe storms, threaten the state’s unique biodiversity—yet managers are unsure how species will respond to these changes, which makes planning for the future difficult. In order to identify the impacts of climate change on Florida’s plants and wildlife, researchers developed regional climate scenarios identifying how temperature and precipitation patterns...
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This project produced long simulations (multi-decadal to multi-century in scale) of past, present, and future regional climate at a grid spacing of 50 kilometers (km) over North America and at a grid spacing of 15 km over western and eastern North America. These model runs were the first attempt to achieve coordinated, high-resolution downscaling with such wide geographic and temporal coverage. The objectives of this project were to (1) understand the nature of climate change and variability, (2) quantify the climate-driven responses and feedbacks of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, wildfire, the hydrologic cycle, and alpine glaciers, and (3) provide climate information in a form that is useful to a wide range...
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Previous climate change research for the Colorado River Basin has used down-scaled climate models to predict impacts to hydropower and the potential ability to meet mandated water releases. The Lower Colorado River Basin (LCRB) has one of the most imperiled fish faunas in the nation with about half of the native fish species listed as Threatened or Endangered under the Federal Endangered Species Act. Current water demands for agriculture and human consumption are only slightly less than long-term annual flows. Future projections based on climate change alone indicate decreased precipitation, increased temperatures, and lower annual runoff which will further stress this ecosystem that is experiencing among the highest...
Natural resource managers face an unprecedented challenge ? how to plan and manage for local and regional effects of climate change. In the Pacific Northwest, temperatures and precipitation changes are affecting snowpack levels, hydrology, and disturbance regimes such as fire. These changes will affect species? distributions and phenologies, creating cascading effects on ecological systems that will greatly alter many of the resources of our national parks. To address these impacts, managers need detailed information on which species and systems are most susceptible to climate change and how projected changes in climate are likely to affect them. This project will answer critical research questions of which species...
    map background search result map search result map How will Florida’s Biodiversity Respond to Climate Change? Downscaled Climate Change Modeling for the Conterminous United States (National Assessment) Projected Land Use Change for the Conterminous United States (National Assessment) Projected Climate and Land Use Change Impacts on Aquatic Habitats in the Midwestern United States (Regional Assessment) Projected Climate and Land Use Change Impacts on Aquatic Habitats of the Lower Colorado River Basin (Regional Assessment) Projected Climate Change Impacts on Stream Dwelling Smallmouth Bass Populations in the U.S. (Local Assessment) Predicting Coldwater Fish Habitat in Lakes of the Glacial Lakes Region under Changing Land Use and Climate Regimes (Local Assessment) Forecasting the Effects of Land-Use and Climate Change on Wildlife Communities and Habitats in the Lower Mississippi Valley How will Florida’s Biodiversity Respond to Climate Change? Forecasting the Effects of Land-Use and Climate Change on Wildlife Communities and Habitats in the Lower Mississippi Valley Projected Climate Change Impacts on Stream Dwelling Smallmouth Bass Populations in the U.S. (Local Assessment) Projected Climate and Land Use Change Impacts on Aquatic Habitats of the Lower Colorado River Basin (Regional Assessment) Predicting Coldwater Fish Habitat in Lakes of the Glacial Lakes Region under Changing Land Use and Climate Regimes (Local Assessment) Projected Climate and Land Use Change Impacts on Aquatic Habitats in the Midwestern United States (Regional Assessment) Downscaled Climate Change Modeling for the Conterminous United States (National Assessment) Projected Land Use Change for the Conterminous United States (National Assessment)