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Climate velocity is a concept derived from the intersection between ecology and climate change. It attempts to summarize the rate of climate change on a spatial scale as a movement rate (usually in units of kilometer per year) that a species would need to maintain to remain in its current climatological niche in the face of climate change. We now have downscaled climate models for the main Hawaiian Islands. In conjunction with the rainfall atlas of contemporary climate we have the information to calculate climate velocity for Hawaii, providing a useful index of the rate of climate change for conservation and resource managers. The goal of this project was to produce climate velocity maps for the seven main Hawaiian...
Recent studies show that past and ongoing environmental changes have been substantial and have likely already affected conservation efforts in Hawaii. Much of the state has experienced substantial drying, including decreases in mean annual precipitation since the 1920s, longer rainless periods, and decreasing stream flow. Temperatures have been increasing in the state for the last 40 years, especially at higher elevations where most native habitats and species currently persist. Unfortunately there are few long term monitoring efforts that allow us to understand plant species responses to these past, ongoing and future shifts in environmental conditions. Consequently, we know little about how environmental shifts...
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Hawaiian forest birds are imperiled, with fewer than half the original > 40 species remaining extant. Recent studies document ongoing rapid population decline and project complete climate-based range losses for the critically endangered Kaua’i endemics ‘akeke’e (Loxops caeruleirostris) and ‘akikiki (Oreomystis bairdi) by end-of-century due to projected warming. Climate change facilitates the upward expansion of avian malaria into native high elevation forests where disease was historically absent. While intensified conservation efforts attempt to safeguard these species and their habitats, the magnitude of potential loss and the urgency of this situation require all conservation options to be seriously considered....
Besides coral, Hawaiian forest birds are arguably one of the clearest examples of species vulnerable to climate change. A wealth of studies has recently detailed how both ongoing and projected warming allows for avian malaria to spread at higher elevation areas where most remaining native bird species persist. Temperature is a critical factor for the development of both the disease (Plasmodium relictum) and its vector (Culex quinquefasciatus). As such, their distribution and abundance across the landscape seem to vary across the landscape in response to changing monthly, seasonal and annual conditions. Standard and novel vector control options are increasingly being considered to safeguard forest birds from the...
In conservation, one challenge of climate change adaptation is that acting on projected long-term climatic threats requires two ‘leaps’ by managers: 1) Acting on climate-based information which rarely is considered by managers; and 2) Acting on projected impacts that have not yet materialized. A broader challenge to Hawaiian plant conservation is the disconnect between the public and the wao akua where efforts to preserve native plants are often concentrated in. We have recently developed autonomous and high precision sensor arrays to monitor growth of individual native plants along with local environmental conditions at 30 minute intervals. The developed sensor array is unobtrusive, autonomous and when coupled...
Conservation efforts in isolated archipelagos such as Hawai’i often focus on habitat-based conservation and restoration efforts that benefit multiple species. Unfortunately, identifying locations where such efforts are safer from climatic shifts is still challenging. We aimed to provide a method to approximate these potential habitat shifts for similar data- and research-limited contexts. We modeled the relationship between climate and the potential distribution of native biomes across the Hawaiian archipelago to provide a first approximation of potential native biome shifts under end-of-century projected climate. Our correlative model circumvents the lack of data necessary for the parameterization of mechanistic...