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This final report was developed in December 2014 for the project Critically Evaluating Existing Methods and Supporting a Standardization of Terrestrial and Wetland Habitat Classification and Mapping that Includes Characterization of Climate Sensitive Systems.
Abstract: Grassland birds are declining faster than any other bird guild across North America. Shrinking ranges and population declines are attributed to widespread habitat loss and increasingly fragmented landscapes of agriculture and other land uses that are misaligned with grassland bird conservation. Concurrent with habitat loss and degradation, temperate grasslands have been disproportionally affected by climate change relative to most other terrestrial biomes. Distributions of grassland birds often correlate with gradients in climate, but few researchers have explored the consequences of weather on the demography of grassland birds inhabiting a range of grassland fragments. To do so, we modeled the effects...
Abstract (from https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10980-016-0429-z): Context Forests in the northeastern United States are currently in early- and mid-successional stages recovering from historical land use. Climate change will affect forest distribution and structure and have important implications for biodiversity, carbon dynamics, and human well-being. Objective We addressed how aboveground biomass (AGB) and tree species distribution changed under multiple climate change scenarios (PCM B1, CGCM A2, and GFDL A1FI) in northeastern forests. Methods We used the LANDIS PRO forest landscape model to simulate forest succession and tree harvest under current climate and three climate change scenarios from...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Forests, Landscapes, Northeast CASC
Abstract (from https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10980-016-0473-8): Context Global climate change impacts forest growth and methods of modeling those impacts at the landscape scale are needed to forecast future forest species composition change and abundance. Changes in forest landscapes will affect ecosystem processes and services such as succession and disturbance, wildlife habitat, and production of forest products at regional, landscape and global scales. Objectives LINKAGES 2.2 was revised to create LINKAGES 3.0 and used it to evaluate tree species growth potential and total biomass production under alternative climate scenarios. This information is needed to understand species potential under...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Forests, Landscapes, Northeast CASC
Abstract (from ScienceDirect): Maximum stand density index (SDImax) is an important factor controlling stand dynamics that varies by species and region, but less is understood how it differs within a region for a given species. In this analysis, linear quantile mixed modeling (LQMM) and an extensive network of permanent plots were utilized to examine regional variation in the SDImax of 15 species (7 softwoods and 8 hardwoods) across the complex forests of the Acadian Region in North America. Observed plot-level SDImax was then linked to various stand, plant trait, site, and climatic factors and the spatial patterns throughout the region examined. Results indicated high variability of SDImax for a given species with...
Abstract (from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006320715001834): Continental-scale monitoring programs with standardized survey protocols play an important role in conservation science by identifying species in decline and prioritizing conservation action. However, rare, inaccessible, or spatially fragmented communities may be underrepresented in continental-scale surveys. Data on these communities often come from decentralized, local monitoring efforts that differ in their goals and survey protocols. We combine 16 point count datasets, controlling for differences in protocol and detection probabilities to estimate regional trends for 14 spruce-fir forest bird species across Northeastern and Midwestern...
Abstract (from http://forestry.oxfordjournals.org/content/87/5/629.abstract): The contribution of understorey vegetation (UVEG) to forest ecosystem biomass and carbon (C) across diverse forest types has, to date, eluded quantification at regional and national scales. Efforts to quantify UVEG C have been limited to field-intensive studies or broad-scale modelling approaches lacking field measurements. Although large-scale inventories of UVEG C are not common, species- and community-level inventories of vegetation structure are available and may prove useful in quantifying UVEG C stocks. This analysis developed a general framework for estimating UVEG C stocks by employing per cent cover estimates of UVEG from a region-wide...
Abstract (from British Ecological Society): Tree harvest and climate change can interact to have synergistic effects on tree species distribution changes. However, few studies have investigated the interactive effects of tree harvest and climate change on tree species distributions. We assessed the interactive effects of tree harvest and climate change on the distribution of 29 dominant tree species at 270 m resolution in the southern United States, while accounting for species demography, competition, urban growth and natural fire. We simulated tree species distribution changes to year 2100 using a coupled forest dynamic model (LANDIS PRO), ecosystem process model (LINKAGES) and urban growth model (SLEUTH). The...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Forests, Landscapes, Northeast CASC
College of Menominee Nation Sustainable Development Institute hosted a 3-day summit in October 2014 focused on different levels of climate change adaptation training for Tribes. This event included opportunities to network between indigenous practitioners, tribal leaders and land managers, federal agencies, and climate change scientists. The information was specific to the Northeast region, but was open to all who were interested in the issues of climate change and Tribes. The Summit provided an opportunity to gain introductory and more advanced climate change adaptation planning skills and information, identify next steps for adaptation, and make connections between tribes and academic/governmental climate change...
Abstract (from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378112714003028): Plant functional traits (PFTs) have increased in popularity in recent years to describe various ecosystems and biological phenomena while advancing general ecological principles. To date, few have investigated distributional attributes of individual PFTs and their relationship with key attributes and processes of forest ecosystems. The objective of this study was to quantify the distribution and contribution of various PFTs in determining forest structure, live tree production (volume and biomass), and tree mortality across the eastern US. In total, 16 metrics representing species specific gravity and their shade, flood, and drought...
Abstract (from https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10980-017-0487-x): Context Temperate grasslands and their dependent species are exposed to high variability in weather and climate due to the lack of natural buffers such as forests. Grassland birds are particularly vulnerable to this variability, yet have failed to shift poleward in response to recent climate change like other bird species in North America. However, there have been few studies examining the effect of weather on grassland bird demography and consequent influence of climate change on population persistence and distributional shifts. Objectives The goal of this study was to estimate the vulnerability of Henslow’s Sparrow (Ammodramus henslowii),...
Abstract (from Wiley Online Library): Aim Population dynamics and disturbances have often been simplified or ignored when predicting regional‐scale tree species distributions in response to climate change in current climate‐distribution models (e.g., niche and biophysical process models). We determined the relative importance of population dynamics, tree harvest, climate change, and their interaction in affecting tree species distribution changes. Location Central Hardwood Forest Region of the United States. Major taxa studied Tree species. Methods We used a forest dynamic model, LANDIS PRO that accounted for population dynamics, tree harvest, and climate change to predict tree species’ distributions at 270 m resolution...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Forests, Landscapes, Northeast CASC
Assessing the potential vulnerability of the coastal zone to sea-level rise (SLR) requires integrating a variety of physical, biological, and social factors. These include landscape, habitat, and resource changes, as well as the ability of society and its institutions to adapt. The range of physical and biological responses associated with SLR is poorly understood at some of the critical time and space scales required for decision making. Limitations in the ability to quantitatively predict outcomes at local, regional, and national scales affect whether, when, and how some decisions will be made. The USGS and collaborators are developing scientific knowledge and tools to understand and anticipate the magnitude and...
Abstract (from Forests): Fire is a multi-scale process that is an important component in determining ecosystem age structures and successional trajectories across forested landscapes. In order to address questions regarding fire effects over large spatial scales and long temporal scales researchers often employ forest landscape models which can model fire as a spatially explicit disturbance. Within forest landscape models site-level fire effects are often simplified to the species, functional type, or cohort level due to time or computational resource limitations. In this study we used a subset of publicly available U.S. Forest Service forest inventory data (FIA) to estimate short-term fire effects on tree densities...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Forests, Landscapes, Northeast CASC
Abstract: (from ScienceDirect): Empirical evidence has shown increased variability in harvest and recruitment of exploited fish populations, which can result directly from exploitation or indirectly from interactions between external drivers and the internal dynamics of age-structured populations. We investigated whether predation in a freshwater system could affect a prey fish population, in the same way fishing affects targeted populations. Using fishery-independent trawl survey data and a suite of quantitative indicators, we evaluated changes in the alewife population in Lake Michigan. Our results provide evidence for a reduction in the mean spawner age, a reduction in the diversity of age classes and the distribution...
Abstract (from https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10980-016-0404-8): Objectives We compared predictions for 30 species from TreeAtlas, Linkages, and LANDIS PRO, using two climate change scenarios on four regions, to derive a more robust assessment of species change in response to climate change. Methods We calculated the ratio of future importance or biomass to current for each species, then compared agreement among models by species, region, and climate scenario using change classes, an ordinal agreement score, spearman rank correlations, and model averaged change ratios. Results Comparisons indicated high agreement for many species, especially northern species modeled to lose habitat. TreeAtlas and...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Forests, Landscapes, Northeast CASC
The Earth is warmer today than it has been during most of the last 11,000 years; as warming trends approach unprecedented levels, there is little doubt that future climate change will have profound effects on species conservation and management. Grassland ecosystems and many grassland-dependent birds are particularly vulnerable to rapid shifts in climate variability and associated changes in drought and extreme weather events. For grassland birds, climate change is likely to exacerbate environmental threats such as habitat loss due to shifting agricultural practices and housing sprawl. Our goal was to identify how certain grassland bird species are sensitive to climate variability and which regions have the highest...
Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1890/ES15-00238.1/abstract): Most temperate forests in U.S. are recovering from heavy exploitation and are in intermediate successional stages where partial tree harvest is the primary disturbance. Changes in regional forest composition in response to climate change are often predicted for plant functional types using biophysical process models. These models usually simplify the simulation of succession and harvest and may not consider important species-specific demographic processes driving forests changes. We determined the relative importance of succession, harvest, and climate change to forest composition changes in a 125-million ha area of the Central Hardwood...
Water temperature is one of the important characteristics of a stream that can be impacted by anthropogenic change. Such change can have significant ecological implications for the health of riparian systems. It is important for decision-makers to understand the impact of various physical characteristics on the stream temperature regime in a watershed. This research applies a statistical stream temperature model (Mohseni et al, 1998) to 905 sites across the northeastern United States to determine if such models can be useful to resource managers. Statistical analysis on the calibrated model parameters across the best-fit sites is used to provide information on watershed characteristics which may be critical to stream...