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Inundation is a critical parameter of wetland hydrologic performance. This study uses Annual Habitat Survey data from 2004 to 2012 in the Rainwater Basin in south-central Nebraska to examine differences between the actual inundation conditions and three datasets: the National Wetland Inventory (NWI), the Soil Survey Geographic database (SSURGO), and LiDAR-derived depressions. The results show that current wetland inundated areas were well overlaid with these datasets (99.9% in SSURGO data, 67.9% in NWI data, and 87.3;% in LiDAR-derived depressions). However, the hydrologic degradation of playa wetlands was not reflected in these datasets. In SSURGO data, only 13.3% of hydric soil footprint areas were inundated and...
Abstract: The predictive power of recruitment models often relies on the identification and quantification of external variables, in addition to stock size. In theory, the identification of climatic, biotic, or demographic influences on reproductive success assists fisheries management by identifying factors that have a direct and reproducible influence on the population dynamics of a target species. More often, models are constructed as one-time studies of a single population whose results are not revisited when further data become available. Here, we present results from stock recruitment models for Alewife Alosa pseudoharengus and Bloater Coregonus hoyi in Lakes Michigan and Huron. The factors that explain variation...
UNCERTAINTY IS ALWAYS PRESENT in conservation and other socio-ecological decisions, which can make choices uncomfortable and challenging. All choices have consequences – including the choice to do nothing. This fact sheet discusses the pervasiveness of uncertainty, the importance of understanding varying perceptions of uncertainty, and avenues for progress in the presence of uncertainty and differing risk tolerances.
Abstract (from https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10980-016-0404-8): Objectives We compared predictions for 30 species from TreeAtlas, Linkages, and LANDIS PRO, using two climate change scenarios on four regions, to derive a more robust assessment of species change in response to climate change. Methods We calculated the ratio of future importance or biomass to current for each species, then compared agreement among models by species, region, and climate scenario using change classes, an ordinal agreement score, spearman rank correlations, and model averaged change ratios. Results Comparisons indicated high agreement for many species, especially northern species modeled to lose habitat. TreeAtlas and...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Forests, Landscapes, Northeast CASC
The Earth is warmer today than it has been during most of the last 11,000 years; as warming trends approach unprecedented levels, there is little doubt that future climate change will have profound effects on species conservation and management. Grassland ecosystems and many grassland-dependent birds are particularly vulnerable to rapid shifts in climate variability and associated changes in drought and extreme weather events. For grassland birds, climate change is likely to exacerbate environmental threats such as habitat loss due to shifting agricultural practices and housing sprawl. Our goal was to identify how certain grassland bird species are sensitive to climate variability and which regions have the highest...
Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1890/ES15-00238.1/abstract): Most temperate forests in U.S. are recovering from heavy exploitation and are in intermediate successional stages where partial tree harvest is the primary disturbance. Changes in regional forest composition in response to climate change are often predicted for plant functional types using biophysical process models. These models usually simplify the simulation of succession and harvest and may not consider important species-specific demographic processes driving forests changes. We determined the relative importance of succession, harvest, and climate change to forest composition changes in a 125-million ha area of the Central Hardwood...
Water temperature is one of the important characteristics of a stream that can be impacted by anthropogenic change. Such change can have significant ecological implications for the health of riparian systems. It is important for decision-makers to understand the impact of various physical characteristics on the stream temperature regime in a watershed. This research applies a statistical stream temperature model (Mohseni et al, 1998) to 905 sites across the northeastern United States to determine if such models can be useful to resource managers. Statistical analysis on the calibrated model parameters across the best-fit sites is used to provide information on watershed characteristics which may be critical to stream...
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The rapidly increasing demands being placed on our deserts points to the urgent need for a connectivity assessment that spans multiple jurisdictional boundaries and promotes the partnerships needed to implement a regional conservation strategy for this diverse and striking landscape. The vast scale of renewable energy developments proposed in the California deserts are likely to impact habitat connectivity, alter essential ecosystem functions, and eliminate opportunities for species to shift their ranges in response to climate change. The potential impacts of energy development on our existing public lands, specifically to wildlife and their ability to move across the landscape, are enormous. The primary goal of...
Abstract: Statistical downscaling (SD) is commonly used to provide information for the assessment of climate change impacts. Using as input the output from large-scale dynamical climate models and observation-based data products, SD aims to provide a finer grain of detail and to mitigate systematic biases. It is generally recognized as providing added value. However, one of the key assumptions of SD is that the relationships used to train the method during a historical period are unchanged in the future, in the face of climate change. The validity of this assumption is typically quite difficult to assess in the normal course of analysis, as observations of future climate are lacking. We approach this problem using...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: South Central CASC
The increasing availability of climate projections provides natural resource managers and scientists with a number of scenarios from which to estimate variability in hydrologic response to future climatic conditions. This presents a need for consistent and efficient conversion of climate data into model-ready format, archiving and indexing of model simulation results, and the visualization and summation of model simulation results. Furthermore, decision-makers need this information at specific locations and for specific periods of record to effectively manage their water resources. This final report summarizes a collaborative effort to help address these issues through the construction of the Monthly Water Balance...
Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL062803/abstract): Observations from the main mountain climate station network in the western United States (U.S.) suggest that higher elevations are warming faster than lower elevations. This has led to the assumption that elevation-dependent warming is prevalent throughout the region with impacts to water resources and ecosystem services. Here we critically evaluate this network's temperature observations and show that extreme warming observed at higher elevations is the result of systematic artifacts and not climatic conditions. With artifacts removed, the network's 1991–2012 minimum temperature trend decreases from +1.16°C decade−1 to +0.106°C decade−1...
Managing plant and wildlife species under climate change offers a substantial challenge. Federal agencies have adapted a framework for considering climate change when implementing management actions. This project was designed to demonstrate how elements of that framework, climate science, ecological forecasting, and natural resource management, can be linked to best maintain natural resources under climate change. The project focused on the whitebark pine (WBP) tree. This species occupies high mountain forests and uniquely provides foods and habitats for other species. WBP populations have undergone massive die-offs over the past decade due to pest outbreaks associated with climate warming. In the Greater Yellowstone...
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Temperate grassland ecosystems are imperiled globally, and habitat loss in North America has resulted in steepdeclines of endemic songbirds. Commercial livestock grazing is the primary land use in rangelands that supportremaining bird populations. Some conservationists suggest using livestock as “ecosystem engineers” to increasehabitat heterogeneity in rangelands because birds require a spectrum of sparse to dense vegetation cover.However, grazing effects remain poorly understood because local studies have not incorporated broad-scaleenvironmental constraints on herbaceous growth. We surveyed grassland birds across a region spanning26 500 km2 in northeast Montana, United States to assess how distribution and abundance...
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Within the time frame of the longevity of tree species, climate change will change faster than the ability of natural tree migration. Migration lags may result in reduced productivity and reduced diversity in forests under current management and climate change. We evaluated the efficacy of planting climate-suitable tree species (CSP), those tree species with current or historic distributions immediately south of a focal landscape, to maintain or increase aboveground biomass, productivity, and species and functional diversity. We modeled forest change with the LANDIS-II forest simulation model for 100 years (2000–2100) at a 2-ha cell resolution and five-year time steps within two landscapes in the Great Lakes region...
map background search result map search result map A Linkage Network for the California Deserts Publication: Climate-suitable planting as a strategy for maintaining forest productivity and functional diversity Examining Playa Wetland Inundation Conditions for National Wetland Inventory, Soil Survey Geographic Database, and LiDAR Data Precipitation and Soil Productivity Explain Effects of Grazing on Grassland Songbirds Examining Playa Wetland Inundation Conditions for National Wetland Inventory, Soil Survey Geographic Database, and LiDAR Data A Linkage Network for the California Deserts Precipitation and Soil Productivity Explain Effects of Grazing on Grassland Songbirds Publication: Climate-suitable planting as a strategy for maintaining forest productivity and functional diversity