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The U.S. Geological Survey Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) was used to assess the effects of changing climate and land disturbance on seasonal streamflow in the Rio Grande Headwaters (RGHW) region. Three applications of PRMS in the RGHW were used to simulate 1) baseline effects of climate, 2) effects of bark-beetle induced tree mortality, and 3) effects of wildfire, on components of the hydrologic cycle and subsequent seasonal streamflow runoff from April through September for water years 1980 through 2017. PRMS input files and select PRMS output variables for each simulation are contained in this data release to accompany the journal article.
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Understanding the changes in the distribution and quantity of, and demand for, water resources in response to a changing climate is essential to planning for, and adapting to, future climatic conditions. In order to plan for future conditions and challenges, it is crucial that managers understand the limitations and uncertainties associated with the characterization of these changes when making management decisions. Changes in consumptive water use (water removed without return to a water resources system) will change streamflow, impacting downstream water users, their livelihoods, as well as aquatic ecosystems. Historical changes in available water may be attributed to changes in precipitation; but these changes...
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Freshwater mussels are an important component of freshwater ecosystems. They can filter a large amount of water, affecting both water clarity and water chemistry. Their shells provide physical habitat for other organisms, they re-direct necessary nutrients to the bottom of the water column, and their excreted material can enhance the growth of algae and macroinvertebrates. However, dramatic declines of freshwater mussels have occurred due to habitat loss, destruction and modification, pollution, and invasive species. One mussel species in Texas (Texas Hornshell) has been listed as endangered under the Endangered Species Act and several other species are candidates for listing. Changes in precipitation patterns...
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Climate change is causing species to shift their phenology, or the timing of recurring life events such as migration and spawning, in variable and complex ways. This can potentially result in mismatches or asynchronies in food and habitat resources that negatively impact individual fitness, population dynamics, and ecosystem function. Numerous studies have evaluated phenological shifts in terrestrial species, particularly birds and plants, yet far fewer evaluations have been conducted for marine animals. This project sought to improve our understanding of shifts in the timing of seasonal migration, spawning or breeding, and biological development (i.e. life stages present, dominant) of coastal fishes and migratory...
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Vernal pools are small, seasonal wetlands that provide critically important seasonal habitat for many amphibian species of conservation concern. Natural resource managers and scientists in the Northeast, as well as the Northeast Refugia Research Coalition, coordinated by the Northeast CSC, recently identified vernal pools as a priority ecosystem to study, and recent revisions to State Wildlife Action Plans highlighted climate change and disease as primary threats to key vernal pool ecosystems. Mapping out the hydrology of vernal pools across the Northeast is an important step in informing land management and conservation decision-making. Project researchers modeled the hydrology of roughly 450 vernal pools from...
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Cold-water adapted Brook Trout were historically widely distributed – ranging from northern Quebec to Georgia, and from the Atlantic Ocean to Manitoba in the north, and along the Appalachian ridge in the south. However, studies show that due to factors associated with climate change, such as increased stream temperature and changing water flow, the number of streams containing Brook Trout is declining. Although efforts have been made to protect and restore this cold-water fish at local levels, the extent that temperature increases will vary within and across different streams and the ability of Brook Trout to seek cold-water refugia or adapt to these increasing stream temperatures currently remains unclear. The...
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The amount of water flowing through a stream is an important driver of aquatic habitat, but scientists don’t often measure streamflow in the small stream networks that feed larger rivers. Monitoring smaller streams is especially important as climate change is causing them to (a) flood more often and more intensely, and (b) lose habitat as drought events and water temperatures increase. A better understanding of the changing patterns of flow and temperatures in small streams can help decision makers evaluate which streams will provide suitable habitat for plants and animals under a changing climate. Specific goals of this project are to 1) understand how water flow and temperature interact in small streams and 2)...
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A hydrologic model was developed as part of the Southeast Regional Assessment Project using the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a deterministic, distributed-parameter, process-based system that simulates the effects of precipitation, temperature, and land use on basin hydrology. Streamflow and other components of the hydrologic cycle simulated by PRMS were used to inform other types of simulations such as water-temperature, hydrodynamic, and ecosystem-dynamics simulations.
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The Science Issue and Relevance: Coastal wetlands are some of the most productive and valuable habitats in the world. Louisiana contains 40% of the United States’ coastal wetlands, which provide critical habitat for waterfowl and fisheries, as well as many other benefits, such as storm surge protection for coastal communities. In terms of ecosystem services, biological resource production, and infrastructure investments, the value of Louisiana’s coastal wetlands exceeds $100 billion. Thus, stakeholders are gravely concerned about sea-level rise which is causing coastal marsh habitat to convert to open water and resulting in the highest rates of wetland loss in the world, with nearly 1.2 million acres lost since...
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Recently intensifying drought conditions have caused increased stress to non-native tamarisk vegetation across riparian areas of the San Carlos Apache Tribe (hereafter Tribe) and the Upper Gila River watershed in Arizona and New Mexico. This also increases wildfire risk in the area, making the removal of tamarisk vegetation a primary restoration and climate adaptation objective for the Tribe. The research from this project can improve the Tribe’s capacity to map tamarisk and other riparian vegetation, in addition to monitoring the relative condition and water stress of the vegetation in a timely manner. Specifically, the project will help identify where tamarisk is on the reservation and inform restoration actions...
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ArcGIS layer package of relative classifications (low to high) for six resilience indicators and two anthropogenic stressors and a map of final relative resilience scores for 78 sites in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands. The six resilience indicators are: bleaching resistance, coral diversity, coral recruitment, herbivore biomass, macroalgae cover and temperature variability. The two anthropogenic stressors are fishing access and nutrients and sediments. The resilience score map compares sites across all four of the surveyed islands: Saipan, Tinian, Aguijan, and Rota.
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This data release includes data-processing scripts, data products, and associated metadata for a study to model the hydrology of several hundred vernal pools (i.e., seasonal pools or ephemeral wetlands) across the northeastern United States. More information on this study is available from the project website. This data release consists of several components: (1) an input dataset and associated metadata document ("pool_inundation_observations_and_climate_and_landscape_data"); (2) an annotated R script which processes the input dataset, performs inundation modeling, and generates model predictions ("annotated_R_script_for_pool_inundation_modeling.R"); and (3) a model prediction dataset and associated metadata document...
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Riparian systems are critical to the human and ecological communities that interact with them. For the members of San Carlos Apache Tribe, this is particularly true, as riparian systems provide immense cultural and natural values such as ceremonial grounds and recreation areas. However, the riparian areas within the San Carlos Apache Reservation are at risk of degradation due to climate change and land use. Over the past several decades, invasive vegetation, changes in river discharge, and increased wildfire activity have continued to threaten the area’s riparian resources. This project aims to inform riparian restoration efforts by providing products that: identify historic vegetation and river channel properties,...
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This GIS dataset is the primary data product produced for the NW Climate Science Center-funded project, "Rangewide climate vulnerability assessment for threatened Bull Trout" (FRESC Study ID 851). We used predictions of temperatures in streams across approximately two-thirds of the species' range in the U.S. to map coldwater streams or “patches” suitable for spawning and early rearing of Bull Trout. Each patch consists of streams with contiguous reaches of cold water. Patches were delineated using medium resolution National Hydrography Dataset streams containing modeled temperatures available at 1 km intervals, as provided by the NorWeST project (http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/boise/AWAE/projects/NorWeST.html).Once the...
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Spatially distributed snow depth and snow duration data were collected over two to four snow seasons during water years 2011-2014 in experimental forest plots within the Cedar River Municipal Watershed, 50 km east of Seattle, Washington, USA. These 40 m × 40 m forest plots, situated on the western slope of the Cascade Range, include un-thinned second-growth coniferous forest as control treatments, variable density thinned forests, forest gaps in which a 20 m diameter (approximately equivalent to one tree height) gap was cut in the middle of each plot, and old growth forest. Together, this publicly available dataset includes snow depth observations from manual snow courses, distributed snow duration observations...
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The goal of the glacial lakes regional study was to predict the impacts of climate and land use change on coldwater fish habitat in the glacial lakes region, which covers most of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan. The study includes both top-level, regional analyses and more detailed case studies of individual lakes. The goal of this project was to provide (1) projections of land use and climate change impacts on the trophic status of Midwestern coldwater glacial lakes, (2) projections of land use and climate change impacts on the regional distribution of coldwater lake oxythermal habitat, and (3) guidance on the types of coldwater lakes in which locations will be the most or least vulnerable to land use and climate...
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In the dry southwestern United States, snowmelt plays a crucial role as a water source for people, vegetation, and wildlife. However, snow droughts significantly lower snow accumulations, disrupting these critical water supplies for local communities and ecosystems. Despite its large influence on land- and water-resource management, snow drought has only recently been properly defined and its historical distribution and effects on key natural resources are essentially unknown. To remedy this serious knowledge gap, project researchers are examining the causes, effects, and forecastability of snow drought to provide needed scientific information and guidance to planners and decision makers. The central goals of...
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Salmon are an important resource to the ecosystems, economy, and culture of the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska. However, salmon are under increasing stress due to warming water temperatures and decreasing stream flow. Groundwater is a major contributor to many streams that can help maintain fish habitat during low flows and contributes cooler water that regulates stream temperatures in the warm summer months. As the climate warms, the ability for groundwater to cool stream temperatures will likely become more critical to streams that are used by salmon, such as Beaver Creek near Kenai, Alaska. Preliminary analysis of historical streamflow data indicates that on average, Beaver Creek receives nearly 80% of its flow...
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Rates of glacier loss in the northern Pacific coastal temperate rainforest (PCTR) are among the highest on Earth. These changes in glacier volume and extent will affect the flow and chemistry of coastal rivers, as well as the nearshore marine ecosystem of the Gulf of Alaska (GOA). Runoff from glaciers accounts for about half of the land-to-ocean movement of freshwater into the GOA, strongly influencing the freshwater and marine ecosystems along the coast. Runoff from glaciers, for example, significantly impacts the water temperature and clarity of aquatic habitats, which are important conditions for salmon reproduction. Moreover, runoff from glaciers along the GOA is an important factor in the structure of the...
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Ongoing climate change has the potential to negatively impact Alaska’s ecosystems and the critical services that they provide. These ecosystem services include supplying food and fiber for Alaskan communities, offering opportunities for recreational, cultural, and spiritual activities, and regulating temperature and water flow (runoff, flooding, etc.). Scientists build models to better understand processes and interactions in the natural environment and to use what we know to predict what will happen in the future, so that we can plan for it. Researchers from multiple institutions and disciplines developed an Integrated Ecosystem Model (IEM) for Alaska and Northwest Canada. The model helps forecast how climate...
map background search result map search result map Understanding the Impacts of Permafrost Change: Providing Input into the Alaska Integrated Ecosystem Model Assessing Links between Glaciers and the Northern Pacific Coastal Temperate Rainforest Ecosystem Predicting Coldwater Fish Habitat in Lakes of the Glacial Lakes Region under Changing Land Use and Climate Regimes (Local Assessment) Assessing the Drivers of Water Availability for Historic and Future Conditions in the South Central U.S. Implications of Future Shifts in Migration, Spawning, and Other Life Events of Coastal Fish and Wildlife Species Stream patches of suitable Bull Trout habitat and associated patch variables SERAP: Modeling of Hydrologic Systems Coral Reef Resilience to Climate Change in CNMI results Observations of distributed snow depth and snow duration within diverse forest structures in a maritime mountain watershed Learning From Recent Snow Droughts to Improve Forecasting of Water Availability for People and Forests Mapping Climate Change Resistant Vernal Pools in the Northeastern U.S. Assessing the Impacts of Rapid Rainfall Shifts (“Whiplashes” and “Boomerangs”) on Freshwater Mussels in Central Texas Model input and output for hydrologic simulations in the Rio Grande Headwaters, Colorado, using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) Inundation observations and inundation model predictions for vernal pools of the northeastern United States Understanding Brook Trout Persistence in Warming Streams Understanding Impacts of Sea-Level Rise and Land Management on Critical Coastal Marsh Habitat Mapping Riparian Vegetation Response to Climate Change on the San Carlos Apache Reservation and Upper Gila River Watershed to Inform Restoration Priorities: 1935 to Present (Phase 1) Groundwater Flow and Temperature Modeling to Predict Stream Temperatures in Beaver Creek, Kenai Peninsula, Alaska Integrating Streamflow and Temperature to Identify Streams with Coldwater Refugia in the Northeast Mapping Riparian Vegetation Response to Climate Change on the San Carlos Apache Reservation and Upper Gila River Watershed to Inform Restoration Priorities: 1935 to Present (Phase 2) Observations of distributed snow depth and snow duration within diverse forest structures in a maritime mountain watershed Model input and output for hydrologic simulations in the Rio Grande Headwaters, Colorado, using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) Coral Reef Resilience to Climate Change in CNMI results Understanding Brook Trout Persistence in Warming Streams Groundwater Flow and Temperature Modeling to Predict Stream Temperatures in Beaver Creek, Kenai Peninsula, Alaska Mapping Riparian Vegetation Response to Climate Change on the San Carlos Apache Reservation and Upper Gila River Watershed to Inform Restoration Priorities: 1935 to Present (Phase 2) SERAP: Modeling of Hydrologic Systems Understanding Impacts of Sea-Level Rise and Land Management on Critical Coastal Marsh Habitat Mapping Riparian Vegetation Response to Climate Change on the San Carlos Apache Reservation and Upper Gila River Watershed to Inform Restoration Priorities: 1935 to Present (Phase 1) Implications of Future Shifts in Migration, Spawning, and Other Life Events of Coastal Fish and Wildlife Species Stream patches of suitable Bull Trout habitat and associated patch variables Predicting Coldwater Fish Habitat in Lakes of the Glacial Lakes Region under Changing Land Use and Climate Regimes (Local Assessment) Inundation observations and inundation model predictions for vernal pools of the northeastern United States Assessing the Impacts of Rapid Rainfall Shifts (“Whiplashes” and “Boomerangs”) on Freshwater Mussels in Central Texas Mapping Climate Change Resistant Vernal Pools in the Northeastern U.S. Integrating Streamflow and Temperature to Identify Streams with Coldwater Refugia in the Northeast Learning From Recent Snow Droughts to Improve Forecasting of Water Availability for People and Forests Assessing the Drivers of Water Availability for Historic and Future Conditions in the South Central U.S. Assessing Links between Glaciers and the Northern Pacific Coastal Temperate Rainforest Ecosystem Understanding the Impacts of Permafrost Change: Providing Input into the Alaska Integrated Ecosystem Model