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Climate change is causing species to shift their phenology, or the timing of recurring life events such as migration and spawning, in variable and complex ways. This can potentially result in mismatches or asynchronies in food and habitat resources that negatively impact individual fitness, population dynamics, and ecosystem function. Numerous studies have evaluated phenological shifts in terrestrial species, particularly birds and plants, yet far fewer evaluations have been conducted for marine animals. This project sought to improve our understanding of shifts in the timing of seasonal migration, spawning or breeding, and biological development (i.e. life stages present, dominant) of coastal fishes and migratory...
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Vernal pools are small, seasonal wetlands that provide critically important seasonal habitat for many amphibian species of conservation concern. Natural resource managers and scientists in the Northeast, as well as the Northeast Refugia Research Coalition, coordinated by the Northeast CSC, recently identified vernal pools as a priority ecosystem to study, and recent revisions to State Wildlife Action Plans highlighted climate change and disease as primary threats to key vernal pool ecosystems. Mapping out the hydrology of vernal pools across the Northeast is an important step in informing land management and conservation decision-making. Project researchers modeled the hydrology of roughly 450 vernal pools from...
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Cold-water adapted Brook Trout were historically widely distributed – ranging from northern Quebec to Georgia, and from the Atlantic Ocean to Manitoba in the north, and along the Appalachian ridge in the south. However, studies show that due to factors associated with climate change, such as increased stream temperature and changing water flow, the number of streams containing Brook Trout is declining. Although efforts have been made to protect and restore this cold-water fish at local levels, the extent that temperature increases will vary within and across different streams and the ability of Brook Trout to seek cold-water refugia or adapt to these increasing stream temperatures currently remains unclear. The...
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A hydrologic model was developed as part of the Southeast Regional Assessment Project using the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a deterministic, distributed-parameter, process-based system that simulates the effects of precipitation, temperature, and land use on basin hydrology. Streamflow and other components of the hydrologic cycle simulated by PRMS were used to inform other types of simulations such as water-temperature, hydrodynamic, and ecosystem-dynamics simulations.
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Riparian systems are critical to the human and ecological communities that interact with them. For the members of San Carlos Apache Tribe, this is particularly true, as riparian systems provide immense cultural and natural values such as ceremonial grounds and recreation areas. However, the riparian areas within the San Carlos Apache Reservation are at risk of degradation due to climate change and land use. Over the past several decades, invasive vegetation, changes in river discharge, and increased wildfire activity have continued to threaten the area’s riparian resources. This project aims to inform riparian restoration efforts by providing products that: identify historic vegetation and river channel properties,...
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The goal of the glacial lakes regional study was to predict the impacts of climate and land use change on coldwater fish habitat in the glacial lakes region, which covers most of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan. The study includes both top-level, regional analyses and more detailed case studies of individual lakes. The goal of this project was to provide (1) projections of land use and climate change impacts on the trophic status of Midwestern coldwater glacial lakes, (2) projections of land use and climate change impacts on the regional distribution of coldwater lake oxythermal habitat, and (3) guidance on the types of coldwater lakes in which locations will be the most or least vulnerable to land use and climate...
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In the dry southwestern United States, snowmelt plays a crucial role as a water source for people, vegetation, and wildlife. However, snow droughts significantly lower snow accumulations, disrupting these critical water supplies for local communities and ecosystems. Despite its large influence on land- and water-resource management, snow drought has only recently been properly defined and its historical distribution and effects on key natural resources are essentially unknown. To remedy this serious knowledge gap, project researchers are examining the causes, effects, and forecastability of snow drought to provide needed scientific information and guidance to planners and decision makers. The central goals of...
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Salmon are an important resource to the ecosystems, economy, and culture of the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska. However, salmon are under increasing stress due to warming water temperatures and decreasing stream flow. Groundwater is a major contributor to many streams that can help maintain fish habitat during low flows and contributes cooler water that regulates stream temperatures in the warm summer months. As the climate warms, the ability for groundwater to cool stream temperatures will likely become more critical to streams that are used by salmon, such as Beaver Creek near Kenai, Alaska. Preliminary analysis of historical streamflow data indicates that on average, Beaver Creek receives nearly 80% of its flow...
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Rates of glacier loss in the northern Pacific coastal temperate rainforest (PCTR) are among the highest on Earth. These changes in glacier volume and extent will affect the flow and chemistry of coastal rivers, as well as the nearshore marine ecosystem of the Gulf of Alaska (GOA). Runoff from glaciers accounts for about half of the land-to-ocean movement of freshwater into the GOA, strongly influencing the freshwater and marine ecosystems along the coast. Runoff from glaciers, for example, significantly impacts the water temperature and clarity of aquatic habitats, which are important conditions for salmon reproduction. Moreover, runoff from glaciers along the GOA is an important factor in the structure of the...
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Ongoing climate change has the potential to negatively impact Alaska’s ecosystems and the critical services that they provide. These ecosystem services include supplying food and fiber for Alaskan communities, offering opportunities for recreational, cultural, and spiritual activities, and regulating temperature and water flow (runoff, flooding, etc.). Scientists build models to better understand processes and interactions in the natural environment and to use what we know to predict what will happen in the future, so that we can plan for it. Researchers from multiple institutions and disciplines developed an Integrated Ecosystem Model (IEM) for Alaska and Northwest Canada. The model helps forecast how climate...
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The western coastline of Alaska is highly susceptible to coastal storms, which can cause erosion, flooding, and saltwater storm surge, affecting natural ecosystems, human communities, and commercial activity. Historically, a large buffer of ice along the shoreline has protected this region from some of the more severe effects of coastal storms. However, climate change may not only increase the frequency and intensity of storms, but also cause a loss of shoreline ice, possibly increasing the incidence of coastal erosion and flooding and introducing saltwater to freshwater environments. These hazards have the potential to substantially disrupt the environment and commerce in the region, but more information is needed...
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This project was designed to use climate models to produce projections of changes in sea temperatures and ocean chemistry for coastal marine areas in Micronesia as well as reports that describe the outlook of culturally important marine sites in Guam and CNMI. The projections and maps were expected show what the current state of climate science suggests the future holds for marine areas in Micronesia if we continue to use fossil fuels aggressively. These projections of sea conditions will become the foundation of outlook reports for Tumon Bay in Guam, Lao Lao Bay and Saipan Lagoon in Saipan, and northern Tinian Island. The selected areas are among the most important sites for recreation in Guam and CNMI and, as...
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Surrounded by saltwater, Hawaiian communities depend on freshwater streams for consumption, irrigation, traditional Hawaiian practices, and habitat for native fish and other stream life. It is important to be able to predict how Hawaiʻi’s streams will be affected by changing rainfall patterns to enable sustainable management of critical freshwater resources. However, to date, limited data and the uncertain effects of climate change have hindered predictions of future streamflow. Through this project, scientists developed a model that provides a way to estimate future stream low flow (streamflow during a period of prolonged dryness) by categorizing streams based on their physical characteristics. While the model...
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The Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) spreads over 29 atolls and has a population of over 50,000 people; over 27,000 of those people live on the Majuro Atoll, RMI’s capital. Sea level rise threatens the very existence of RMI as high-end projections of sea level rise by the end of the century exceed the average elevation of these low atoll reef islands. Already, waves wash over Majuro during “king tides” when strong winds blow from the west across the broad lagoon, or when there are high open ocean waves. Flooding waves breach island shores in multiple locations and wash into homes, cemeteries, across roads, and into commercial districts. Over the past decade, there has been a widespread exodus of residents...
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The Nisqually River Delta represents the largest wetland restoration in the Pacific Northwest. The restoration resulted in a 50% increase in potential salt marsh habitat. The Delta supports threatened salmon fisheries, large populations of migratory birds, and provides unique opportunities for recreation. The Delta also provides multiple ecosystem services, which are the benefits that wildlife or ecosystems provide to people. Development and changing climate patterns threaten to alter the Delta and the ecosystem services it provides. This study aims to quantify the value of existing and potential future ecosystem services from the Delta and provide insight into the vulnerability of the mosaic of habitats that support...
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The combined effects of climate change (e.g. increased freshwater supply, sea level rise, etc.), leveeing of the Mississippi River, and the gradual settling of soil have led to a land loss crisis in coastal Louisiana. Coastal wetlands provide various ecosystem services to local coastal communities, such as storm protection, flood control, and habitat for economically and ecologically important plants and animals. The loss of such valuable wetlands has become concerning to these communities as well as natural resource managers. Creating new coastal wetlands and reconnecting the Mississippi River to adjacent wetlands are two common strategies to mitigate coastal land loss and protect vulnerable coastal communities,...
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Coastal wetland loss is a serious concern along the northern Gulf of Mexico, especially in Texas and Louisiana where rates of wetland loss and relative sea-level rise are among the highest in the world, extreme storms are becoming more frequent, and flooding events are intensifying. Because coastal wetlands of the northern Gulf of Mexico provide numerous ecosystem services, including providing critical habitat for species of concern such as the whooping crane and the mottled duck, federal, state, and local agencies have made significant efforts to restore habitats to increase their resilience to sea-level rise and extreme storm events. One way to help wetlands adapt to sea-level rise and extreme flooding events...
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Currently, maintaining appropriate flows to support biological integrity is difficult for larger riverine ecosystems. Climate change, through increased temperature, reduced rainfall, and increased rainfall intensity, is expected to reduce water availability and exacerbate the maintenance of ecological flows in the Arkansas-Red River basin. Understanding the nexus among climate change effects on streamflow, water quality, and stream ecology for watersheds in the Arkansas-Red River Basin can be achieved using currently existing science and technology. This nexus approach will strengthen adaptive-management strategies that focus on shared ecosystem conservation watershed targets. This approach will provide natural-resource...
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Resource managers must balance the impacts of competing management decisions on multiple, interacting natural systems. Hydrologic and ecological processes, such as groundwater fluctuations and riparian evapotranspiration, can be tightly coupled. Ideally, managers would have tools and models that include all processes to better understand how each management action would propagate through the environment. Because resources are limited, management tools that include only the most important processes may be more realistic. However, in some cases, omitting some interactions can lead to significant errors in predictions of hydrologic outcomes and ecological function, severely limiting a manager’s ability to identify...
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Climate change is making coldwater stream fish and their habitats more vulnerable than ever. In the Midwest, warming stream temperatures threaten recreational fishing for brook trout in their native range around the Great Lakes. To ensure that brook trout populations will persist into the future, it is crucial to focus management on areas where brook trout populations are most resilient, and to conduct landscape-level management to increase their resiliency. Resilient coldwater streams have thermal refugia areas where stream temperatures stay colder thanks to influxes of cold water from other water sources, such as groundwater. Existing methods to identify these thermal refugia have relied on either thermal gauges,...
map background search result map search result map Understanding the Impacts of Permafrost Change: Providing Input into the Alaska Integrated Ecosystem Model Modeling Western Alaska Coastal Hazards Assessing Links between Glaciers and the Northern Pacific Coastal Temperate Rainforest Ecosystem Predicting Coldwater Fish Habitat in Lakes of the Glacial Lakes Region under Changing Land Use and Climate Regimes (Local Assessment) Understanding the Nexus between Climate, Streamflow, Water Quality, and Ecology in the Arkansas-Red River Basin Modeling the Response of Hawaiʻi’s Streams to Future Rainfall Conditions Implications of Future Shifts in Migration, Spawning, and Other Life Events of Coastal Fish and Wildlife Species SERAP: Modeling of Hydrologic Systems Assessing the Sustainability of Culturally Important Marine Sites in Guam and CNMI Assessing the Impacts of Restoration Efforts on Water and Natural Systems in a Changing World Simulating and Projecting Future Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Majuro Atoll Learning From Recent Snow Droughts to Improve Forecasting of Water Availability for People and Forests Mapping Climate Change Resistant Vernal Pools in the Northeastern U.S. Assessing the Benefits and Vulnerability of Current and Future Potential Ecosystem Services of the Nisqually River Delta and other Puget Sound Estuaries Understanding Brook Trout Persistence in Warming Streams Planning for a Fresher Future: Implications of River Management Practices on Salt Marsh Restoration Projects in Coastal Louisiana Mapping Riparian Vegetation Response to Climate Change on the San Carlos Apache Reservation and Upper Gila River Watershed to Inform Restoration Priorities: 1935 to Present (Phase 1) Identifying Thermal Refugia for Brook Trout Climate Adaptation in Coldwater Streams Groundwater Flow and Temperature Modeling to Predict Stream Temperatures in Beaver Creek, Kenai Peninsula, Alaska Restoring Texas Coastal Wetlands: Decision Support for the Beneficial Use of Dredged Material Simulating and Projecting Future Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Majuro Atoll Restoring Texas Coastal Wetlands: Decision Support for the Beneficial Use of Dredged Material Understanding Brook Trout Persistence in Warming Streams Groundwater Flow and Temperature Modeling to Predict Stream Temperatures in Beaver Creek, Kenai Peninsula, Alaska Assessing the Sustainability of Culturally Important Marine Sites in Guam and CNMI SERAP: Modeling of Hydrologic Systems Modeling the Response of Hawaiʻi’s Streams to Future Rainfall Conditions Planning for a Fresher Future: Implications of River Management Practices on Salt Marsh Restoration Projects in Coastal Louisiana Assessing the Benefits and Vulnerability of Current and Future Potential Ecosystem Services of the Nisqually River Delta and other Puget Sound Estuaries Identifying Thermal Refugia for Brook Trout Climate Adaptation in Coldwater Streams Mapping Riparian Vegetation Response to Climate Change on the San Carlos Apache Reservation and Upper Gila River Watershed to Inform Restoration Priorities: 1935 to Present (Phase 1) Implications of Future Shifts in Migration, Spawning, and Other Life Events of Coastal Fish and Wildlife Species Understanding the Nexus between Climate, Streamflow, Water Quality, and Ecology in the Arkansas-Red River Basin Predicting Coldwater Fish Habitat in Lakes of the Glacial Lakes Region under Changing Land Use and Climate Regimes (Local Assessment) Mapping Climate Change Resistant Vernal Pools in the Northeastern U.S. Modeling Western Alaska Coastal Hazards Learning From Recent Snow Droughts to Improve Forecasting of Water Availability for People and Forests Assessing Links between Glaciers and the Northern Pacific Coastal Temperate Rainforest Ecosystem Understanding the Impacts of Permafrost Change: Providing Input into the Alaska Integrated Ecosystem Model