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With an average elevation of just seven feet above sea level, the Republic of the Marshall Islands is acutely vulnerable to inundation from both episodic events such as storm surge and chronic conditions such as sea-level rise. Some projections estimate that future sea-level rise could exceed the average elevation of these islands by 2100. Already, residents are facing extreme high tides and 16 foot swells that flood the islands with saltwater, damaging homes and infrastructure and contaminating the freshwater supply. Land elevation is the primary factor that determines the vulnerability of coastal areas to inundation. This project builds on previous work in which a 1-meter resolution digital elevation model (DEM)...
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The Gulf of Mexico coast of Louisiana and Texas faces threats from increasingly destructive extreme weather, heat, subsidence, and coastal erosion. Inland areas also face stronger storms, floods, and shifts in land development patterns. Increasing drought and extreme heat in Texas and New Mexico also exacerbate fires and floods. All of these regions are culturally rich, rapidly changing areas where people are working across political boundaries and organizations to protect and adapt people’s lifeways, sites and artifacts, and culturally important species, places and landscapes. This project will produce an action plan that describes ongoing efforts and identifies gaps in research and funding for cultural preservation...
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The Rio Grande provides drinking water for more than six million people, irrigation water for two million acres of land in the United States and Mexico, and supports riparian ecosystems that are home to endangered species like the ocelot and Rio Grande silvery minnow. Climate variability and anthropogenic activities continue to stress this already limited water resource. This project was developed in response to a request from a group of stakeholders who work in the Basin and represent federal, state and local agencies, private industry, farmers, ranchers, and NGOs. These stakeholders identified the need for a comprehensive data resource that spatially depicts where conservation activities are occurring on the ground....
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The goal of this project was to: (a) archive the relevant AR5 model output data for the southwest region; (b) downscale daily temperature and precipitation to 12 X 12 km cell spatial resolution over the Southwest; (c) assess the precision (degree of agreement) of the simulated models; (d) assess the direction and magnitude of change in projections between AR4 and AR5, as well as assess projections of key extreme climatic events (i.e., extreme drought, extreme seasonal precipitation, extreme high and low temperature events); and (e) assess critical ecosystem impacts (i.e., climate water deficit and fire; hydrological condition of major river systems; impacts on highly valued species).
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In recent decades, average temperatures across the U.S. Southwest have increased substantially and precipitation patterns have increased in variability. The warmer temperatures directly impact water availability within Southwest ecosystems, including earlier snowmelts; reduced snowpacks, soil moisture, and streamflow; and lower humidity. Collectively, this has led to an increase in aridity across this region. This in turn affects terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, increases wildfire severity, and impacts human activities such as agriculture and municipal water use. These well-documented trends are at the forefront of the concerns of natural resource managers in the Southwest. This project aims to strengthen partnerships...
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The Pueblo de San Ildefonso is facing increased wildfire risk under climate change. Recent fires have not only burned culturally significant sites, but they have also resulted in a loss of watershed runoff retention, which has increased erosion and the transport of contaminated sediments and soils on Pueblo lands from the adjacent Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). A priority for the Pueblo is to ensure that wildfires are managed appropriately and, when large fires do occur, that effective measures are taken to control the aftermath of increased flooding and erosion. This project will build on the knowledge of elders and the community to develop a study plan (or study method) to evaluate different landscape...
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Wild turkey is a culturally and economically important game species that has shown dramatic population declines throughout much of the southeastern U.S. A possible explanation for these declines is that the timing of nesting has shifted to earlier in the year while hunting seasons have remained the same. Wild turkeys are the only gamebird in the contiguous United States that are hunted during the reproductive season, so premature harvest of adult male turkeys may disrupt reproductive behaviors and reduce population growth. In addition to hunter harvest, climate change can also impact population growth of wild turkeys. Local and broad-scale regional changes in precipitation and temperature associated with a changing...
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In California, the near-shore area where the ocean meets the land is a highly productive yet sensitive region that supports a wealth of wildlife, including several native bird species. These saltmarshes, mudflats, and shallow bays are not only critical for wildlife, but they also provide economic and recreational benefits to local communities. Today, sea-level rise, more frequent and stronger storms, saltwater intrusion, and warming water temperatures are among the threats that are altering these important habitats. To support future planning and conservation of California’s near-shore habitats, researchers examined current weather patterns, elevations, tides, and sediments at these sites to see how they affect...
Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2012, Bolinas Lagoon, CA, CASC, California, All tags...
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The Salt and Verde river basins in northeastern Arizona are a vital source of fresh water for the greater Phoenix metropolitan area and for two Native American tribes who rely on the basins’ natural resources for their livelihoods. The region depends on winter rain and snow to replenish the river basins’ water supply. Atmospheric rivers – long, narrow channels in the atmosphere that carry water vapor from the Pacific Ocean – supply a substantial portion of this winter precipitation. While atmospheric rivers are critical for maintaining water resources and preventing drought, they occasionally cause extreme storms that lead to flooding. Scientists project that climate change will affect the intensity and frequency...
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Major floods in Southeast Alaska and Hawaiʻi that potentially threaten life, property, and culturally significant resources and ecosystems are caused by mechanisms related to intense precipitation for both locations as well as snow melt-based processes for Alaska. Small, high-gradient, and heavily vegetated watersheds with direct contribution to the ocean are common in both locations. To understand how climate change may affect flooding in these regions, an analysis of the underlying mechanisms that cause flooding is needed. The scope of this study includes an analysis of annual peak-streamflow records from long-term streamgages in Southeast Alaska and Hawaiʻi to determine whether the main flood-producing mechanisms...
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While home to many people and a rich diversity of unique plant and animal life, the U.S. territories of Guam and American Samoa are especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change because of their small size, geographical remoteness, and exposure to threats such as sea-level rise and increased storm surge. Developing predictions of future conditions is often the first step in helping decision makers and communities plan for change. However, to date, available global climate models have been too coarse in resolution to be useful for planning in the context of small, isolated islands. This project produced the first-ever set of high-resolution climate projections for Guam and American Samoa, providing information...
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Madagascar, a country rich in natural capital and biodiversity but with high levels of poverty, food insecurity, and population growth, faces a number of development challenges, including obtaining sustained financial support from external sources and building internal capacity to address the poor environmental, health, and socio-economic conditions. Climate change poses an increasing threat to achieving development goals and is usually considered in development plans and project designs. However, there have been numerous challenges in the effective implementation of those plans, particularly in the sustained engagement of the communities to undertake adaptive actions but also due to insufficient scientific information...
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Barrier islands are exposed to a range of natural and human-caused changes, including hurricanes, sea-level rise, and dredging. These changes have the potential to influence the ability of barrier islands to serve as a first-line of defense for the mainland during storm events. Gulf Islands National Seashore, a National Park Service unit in the northern Gulf of Mexico between Florida and Mississippi, is predominantly comprised of barrier islands and faces immediate challenges, including erosion that washes out roads and sand dunes and the adverse impacts on cultural and natural resources from exposure to saltwater. Managers require realistic estimates of both the vulnerability of the park’s natural and cultural...
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The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current conditions and future SLR scenarios, and in many locations, there are additional products for long-term shoreline change, cliff retreat, and groundwater hazards.  Resulting projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms) provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm-hazards information that can be used to increase public safety and mitigate physical damages to reduce risk, and more effectively manage and allocate resources to increase resilience in response to a changing climate...
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Moloka‘i has great wetland restoration potential in Hawaiʻi, but most remaining sites are highly degraded. The future of several endangered waterbirds and insects relies on restoring coastal wetland habitat that is resilient under sea-level rise and coastal flooding. Currently, managers lack background data on Molokaʻi to prioritize sites for restoration. In this project, Researchers will develop a comprehensive dataset and create a prioritization plan for coastal wetland restoration. The team will work closely with project partners and stakeholders to develop a well-vetted plan to support endangered species and meeting community needs. Existing maps and spatial data about the Molokaʻi landscape will be compiled...
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In California, the near-shore area where the ocean meets the land is a highly productive yet sensitive region that supports a wealth of wildlife, including several native bird species. These saltmarshes, mudflats, and shallow bays are not only critical for wildlife, but they also provide economic and recreational benefits to local communities. Today, sea-level rise, more frequent and stronger storms, saltwater intrusion, and warming water temperatures are among the threats that are altering these important habitats. Much of the existing research on anticipating the effects of changing conditions on coastal ecosystems relies on global or regional scale data, meaning that the detailed information necessary for local-scale...
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The Rio Grande is naturally a water-scarce basin in which droughts have been classified as severe (with almost no rain during some years) and extended (lasting more than 10, or even 15 years). Severe and persistent droughts in the Rio Grande basin reduce water availability, which triggers economic, environmental, and social impacts, and affects compliance with interstate compacts and international treaty commitments. In contrast, the Rio Grande basin is also affected by flood events that cause major losses to lives, properties, and economies. Understanding each of these periods of water scarcity and water abundance can help water managers to design adaptation strategies that cope with these two extremes while still...
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On August 21, 2017, Honolulu Harbor observed the highest hourly water level since tide gauge record collection began in 1905. Throughout the course of 2017, the gauge registered an unprecedented number of high-water events. These record high sea levels were the result of a series of compounding factors: ongoing sea-level rise, seasonally-elevated high tides, and a region of warm water combining with ocean eddies. The threat of rising sea levels to the essential infrastructure and cultural assets of island communities is well known. However, inadequate information limits the ability of resource managers to predict and prepare for the impacts of sea-level rise and associated inundation. Researchers will address...
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The observed rate of warming in many National Park Service (NPS) lands in Alaska has accelerated soil subsidence and increased landslide frequency, thereby threatening public access, subsistence activities and infrastructure in NPS regions. Areas most affected by this change are along the Denali Park Road, the proposed Ambler Road through Gates of the Arctic National Park and Preserve, and the McCarthy Road in Wrangell – St. Elias National Park and Preserve. In light of this, resource managers need highly accurate, localized climate information to assess and plan for future landslide hazards. This project addresses concerns and management implications in these focus areas with emerging issues that have been outlined...
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Freshwater is a critical driver for island ecosystems. Climate change has fundamentally altered the water cycle in tropical islands. The changes in dynamic patterns of streamflow could result in the temporal and spatial difference in the riverine, estuarine, and coastal habitats that support native species. In particular, these habitats support the nine native aquatic species in Hawaiʻi at different stages of their migratory life cycle. To examine how changes in streamflow regimes have impacted habitat quality for these native aquatic species, an ongoing project has examined statewide long-term stream records. Researchers are in the process of building hydrological models and connecting the stream dynamics with...
map background search result map search result map 21st Century High-Resolution Climate Projections for Guam and American Samoa Assessment of Available Climate Models and Projections for the Southwest Region Effects of Sea-Level Rise and Extreme Storms on California Coastal Habitats: Part 1 Effects of Sea-Level Rise and Extreme Storms on California Coastal Habitats: Part 2 Possible Future Changes to Water Resources in the Salt and Verde River Basins Associated with Atmospheric River Events Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) Characterizing Inundation Risk for Majuro Atoll Supporting Sea-Level Rise Preparedness in Hawaiian National Parks Mapping Conservation Management Efforts to Increase Coordination in the Rio Grande Basin Assessing Climate Variability and Adaptation Strategies for the Rio Grande Basin Enhancing Coastal Adaptation Planning at Gulf Islands National Seashore Assessing the Climate Vulnerability of Wild Turkeys Across the Southeastern U.S. Actionable Science to Understand the Effects of Recent Temperature Increases to Inform Natural Resources Management in the Southwestern United States Assessing the Risk to National Park Service Lands in Alaska Imposed by Rapidly Warming Temperatures A Climate Risk Management Screening and Assessment Review for Madagascar’s Country Development Cooperation Strategy A Prioritization Plan for Coastal Wetland Restoration on Moloka‘i Landscape Management Practices on the Pueblo de San Ildefonso Impacts of Extreme Events on the Native and Nonnative Aquatic Species of Hawaiʻi Stream Ecosystem Characterization of Flood-Producing Mechanisms in Watersheds with a High-Elevation Area in Southeast Alaska and Hawaiʻi An Action Plan for Cultural Resource Climate Adaptation Research and Funding Landscape Management Practices on the Pueblo de San Ildefonso A Prioritization Plan for Coastal Wetland Restoration on Moloka‘i Characterizing Inundation Risk for Majuro Atoll Supporting Sea-Level Rise Preparedness in Hawaiian National Parks Possible Future Changes to Water Resources in the Salt and Verde River Basins Associated with Atmospheric River Events Assessing Climate Variability and Adaptation Strategies for the Rio Grande Basin Effects of Sea-Level Rise and Extreme Storms on California Coastal Habitats: Part 1 Effects of Sea-Level Rise and Extreme Storms on California Coastal Habitats: Part 2 A Climate Risk Management Screening and Assessment Review for Madagascar’s Country Development Cooperation Strategy Assessing the Risk to National Park Service Lands in Alaska Imposed by Rapidly Warming Temperatures Mapping Conservation Management Efforts to Increase Coordination in the Rio Grande Basin Assessment of Available Climate Models and Projections for the Southwest Region An Action Plan for Cultural Resource Climate Adaptation Research and Funding Actionable Science to Understand the Effects of Recent Temperature Increases to Inform Natural Resources Management in the Southwestern United States Impacts of Extreme Events on the Native and Nonnative Aquatic Species of Hawaiʻi Stream Ecosystem Assessing the Climate Vulnerability of Wild Turkeys Across the Southeastern U.S. Characterization of Flood-Producing Mechanisms in Watersheds with a High-Elevation Area in Southeast Alaska and Hawaiʻi 21st Century High-Resolution Climate Projections for Guam and American Samoa Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)