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To assess the current topography of the tidal marshes we conducted survey-grade elevation surveys at all sites between 2009 and 2013 using a Leica RX1200 Real Time Kinematic (RTK)Global Positioning System (GPS) rover (±1 cm horizontal, ±2 cm vertical accuracy; Leica Geosystems Inc., Norcross, GA; Figure 4). At sites with RTK network coverage (San Pablo, Petaluma, Pt. Mugu, and Newport), rover positions were received in real time from the Leica Smartnet system via a CDMA modem (www.lecia-geosystems.com). At sites without network coverage (Humboldt, Bolinas, Morro and Tijuana), rover positions were received in real time from a Leica GS10 antenna base station via radio link. When using the base station, we adjusted...
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We used WARMER, a 1-D cohort model of wetland accretion (Swanson et al., 2014), which is based on Callaway et al. (1996), to examine the effects of three SLR projections on future habitat composition at each study site. Each cohort in the model represents the total organic and inorganic matter added to the soil column each year. WARMER calculates annual elevation changes relative to MSL based on projected changes in relative sea level, subsidence, inorganic sediment accumulation, aboveground and belowground organic matter inputs, soil compaction, and organic matter decomposition for a representative marsh area. Cohort density, a function of soil mineral, organic, and water content, is calculated at each time step...
The purpose of this project was to enhance the knowledge of local tribal environmental professionals related to planning for the increased frequency of weather events as a result of climate change. Beyond expanding knowledge, the objective of this workshop introduce the Division of Regional and City Planning faculty and students to the planning needs of tribal communities related to climate change. As a secondary objective, the grantees sought to lay a foundation for building relationships with the regional BIA offices and the tribal environmental professionals for future planning and research activities.
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Surrounded by saltwater, human and natural communities on the Hawaiian Islands depend upon the freshwater supplied by rainfall for survival. Climate change will likely alter rainfall timing and intensity, but global climate models cannot capture the fine-scale dynamics of local rainfall, making future rainfall predictions for the islands uncertain. For this project, scientists used a technique called statistical downscaling (combining coarse-scale climate models with local historical data) to generate high-resolution maps showing seasonal rainfall change projections for Hawaiʻi over the course of this century. Results suggest that Hawaiʻi’s climate will become drier overall in the second half of the century, but...
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Floodplain forests along the Upper Mississippi River are heavily managed but understudied systems that provide critical ecosystem services, including habitat for endangered species. Impacts of a changing climate, such as warmer winters and wetter summers with extreme precipitation events, are already influencing hydrologic patterns in these ecosystems, including altering the duration, frequency, and timing of floods. These changes bring numerous challenges to floodplain forest managers. This project will leverage an already established research-management partnership to develop knowledge and tools to inform sustainable decision making. In this project, researchers will utilize multiple sources of “big data” to...
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Natural climate variability can obscure or enhance long-term trends in experienced weather due to climate change. This can happen temporarily on timescales of a season to several years to a decade or two. Natural variability is poorly described and attributed to specific causes, contributing to uncertainty and misunderstandings about the nature of climate change that stakeholders and resource managers attempt to anticipate. There exists, therefore, a need to clarify the magnitude and causality of natural climate variability. This connection needs to be explained for locally-experienced weather and particularly for daily extreme events, whose seasonal behavior impacts both resources and imagination. Conversely, it...
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Over two-thirds of all landbirds (i.e. birds that spend the majority of their lives in terrestrial environments) in North America migrate long-distances to areas in Mexico, Central and South America and the Caribbean islands. Habitats within Texas and Louisiana support high numbers of birds when they interrupt their migratory journeys through the Gulf of Mexico region to “stopover” for resting and refueling. These stopover habitats are often in areas experiencing human population growth and are impacted by natural disturbances and climate change. Predicted habitat loss from sea level rise and extreme weather events coupled with mismatches in the timing of peak bird migration and peak food abundance may limit the...
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The Bonnet Carré spillway (BCS) is a flood-control structure along the Lower Mississippi River designed to prevent flooding in the city of New Orleans by diverting excess water into the nearby Lake Pontchartrain estuary. Alarmingly, the BCS was opened as many times over the past decade (2011–2020) as it had been over the six prior decades combined (1951–2010), with devastating effects on the estuary’s valuable fisheries. Because the BCS was rarely used in the past, there is little science-based guidance for state agencies to consult when trying to manage these events. In light of the unprecedented increase in BCS operation, this project will conduct research to understand (1) how opening the BCS affects Lake Pontchartrain...
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This data contains maximum model-derived ocean currents (in meters per second) for the sea-level rise (SLR) and storm condition indicated. The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. Projections for CoSMoS v3.1 in Central California include flood-hazard information for the coast from Pt. Conception to the Golden Gate bridge. Outputs include SLR scenarios of 0.0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.5, 3.0, and 5.0 meters; storm scenarios include background conditions (astronomic spring tide and average atmospheric conditions)...
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This data contains model-derived total water levels (in meters) for the sea-level rise (SLR) and storm condition indicated. The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. Projections for CoSMoS v3.1 in Central California include flood-hazard information for the coast from Pt. Conception to the Golden Gate bridge. Outputs include SLR scenarios of 0.0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.5, 3.0, and 5.0 meters; storm scenarios include background conditions (astronomic spring tide and average atmospheric conditions) and simulated...
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This data contains geographic extents of projected coastal flooding, low-lying vulnerable areas, and maximum/minimum flood potential (flood uncertainty) associated with the sea-level rise (SLR) and storm condition indicated. The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. Projections for CoSMoS v3.1 in Central California include flood-hazard information for the coast from Pt. Conception to the Golden Gate bridge. Outputs include SLR scenarios of 0.0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.5, 3.0, and 5.0 meters; storm scenarios...
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This data contains model-derived total water levels (in meters) for the sea-level rise (SLR) and storm condition indicated. The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. Projections for CoSMoS v3.1 in Central California include flood-hazard information for the coast from Pt. Conception to the Golden Gate bridge. Outputs include SLR scenarios of 0.0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.5, 3.0, and 5.0 meters; storm scenarios include background conditions (astronomic spring tide and average atmospheric conditions) and simulated...
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This data contains maximum model-derived significant wave height (in meters) for the sea-level rise (SLR) and storm condition indicated. The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. Projections for CoSMoS v3.1 in Central California include flood-hazard information for the coast from Pt. Conception to the Golden Gate bridge. Outputs include SLR scenarios of 0.0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.5, 3.0, and 5.0 meters; storm scenarios include background conditions (astronomic spring tide and average atmospheric conditions)...
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This data contains model-derived total water levels (in meters) for the sea-level rise (SLR) and storm condition indicated. The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. Projections for CoSMoS v3.1 in Central California include flood-hazard information for the coast from Pt. Conception to the Golden Gate bridge. Outputs include SLR scenarios of 0.0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.5, 3.0, and 5.0 meters; storm scenarios include background conditions (astronomic spring tide and average atmospheric conditions) and simulated...
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Steep, mountainous watersheds, dramatic climate gradients, and tight links between the land and sea are common features of both the Pacific Islands and Southeast Alaska. In these "ridge-to-reef" and “icefield-to-ocean" ecosystems, environmental changes that occur at higher elevations have downstream impacts on the waters below. Today, these two ecosystems are undergoing changes in climate that are significantly impacting the terrestrial, freshwater, and coastal ecosystems that communities rely on for food, water, recreation, and tourism. For example, changing weather patterns are leading to more frequent and severe extreme storms, atmospheric rivers, droughts, and heat waves. Communities in both regions have deep...
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Nearshore proxies for total water level (TWL) developed for Coastal Storm Model (CoSMoS) work in Northern California 3.2 are presented. Deterministic dynamical modeling of future climate conditions and associated hazards, such as flooding, can be computationally-expensive if century-long time-series of waves, sea level variations, and overland flow patterns are simulated. To focus such modeling on storm events of interest, local impacts over long time periods and large geographical areas are estimated. Nearshore proxies for total water level (TWL) are generated via a computationally simple approach, assuming a linear superposition of the important processes contributing to overall total water level. A time series...
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Recent extreme floods on the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers have motivated decision-makers and resource managers to expaned floodplain conservation lands. Within Missouri, there are more than 85,000 acres of public conservation lands in large-river floodplains. Floodplain lands are highly dynamic and challenging to manage, particularly climatic conditions change. These lands have the potential to provide valuable ecosystem services, like wildlife habitat, nutrient processing, carbon sequestration, and flood-water storage, that produce economic values in terms of recreational spending, improved water quality, and decreased flood hazards. However, floodplain managers may need tools to help them understand changing...
The goal of barrier island restoration in the northern Gulf of Mexico is to restore barrier island morphology using sediment to support the functions and habitats the islands provide. Barrier island restoration typically involves placement of sediment either directly on the island footprint or within the littoral zone for system transport and distribution. The re-engineering of barrier islands presents numerous challenges and uncertainties associated with climate change induced hurricanes/storms and other dynamic components of the system such as sediment availability and erosional trends. The goal of this study was to use a collaborative SDM approach to develop two Bayesian decision network models (DMs) for restoration...
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Glaciers are a central component to the hydrology of many areas in Alaska and the Pacific Northwest. Glacier melt plays a crucial role in the movement of nutrients through a landscape and into the ocean, and the flow of water into streams that sustain many species. As air temperatures rise, increased rates of glacier melt may have significant impacts to the hydrology and ecology in these areas. This project aims to broaden our understanding of the role of glaciers in the hydrology of Alaska and Washington state and incorporate this knowledge into two types of models that simulate past and future scenarios of water flow. The project team aims to develop a public web portal to allow users to explore content, access...
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The majority of the West Coast’s most extreme storms have been linked to atmospheric rivers, a meteorological phenomenon in which large amounts of moisture are carried in narrow bands from over the Pacific Ocean to western North America. While weak atmospheric rivers are critical providers of winter rain and snow, stronger events can cause extreme flooding, mudslides, and avalanches – leading to potentially catastrophic damage to life and property. Extreme winter storms, including those linked to atmospheric rivers, are expected to increase in frequency and intensity as a result of climate change. The goal of this project is to identify how these extreme events impact ecosystems and communities across the Southwest....


map background search result map search result map Developing High-Resolution Rainfall Change Scenarios for the Hawaiian Islands Understanding and Communicating the Role of Natural Climate Variability in a Changing World Science to Inform Management of Floodplain Conservation Lands in a Changing World Linking Extreme Storms to Changes in Precipitation, Ecosystems, and Wildfire Patterns in the Sierra Nevada Understanding the Impacts of Glaciers on Streamflow in Alaska and Washington Newport, Tidal Marsh Elevation Points SLR Projections, Newport, Calif., 2070-2110 CoSMoS v3.1 flood hazard projections: 1-year storm in San Luis Obispo County CoSMoS v3.1 ocean-currents hazards: 1-year storm in San Luis Obispo County CoSMoS v3.1 water level projections: 100-year storm in Santa Barbara County CoSMoS v3.1 water level projections: 20-year storm in San Francisco County Adapting to Climate Change: Trends and Severe Storm Responses by Migratory Landbirds and Their Habitats CoSMoS v3.1 wave-hazard projections: 20-year storm in Monterey County CoSMoS v3.1 water level projections: 100-year storm in Monterey County Characterizing Climate-Driven Changes to Flood Events and Floodplain Forests in the Upper Mississippi River to Inform Management Nearshore total water level (TWL) proxies (2018-2100) for Northern California A Fresh Set of Tools: New Information for Managing Fisheries During Changes in River Discharge Understanding Ridge-to-Reef and Icefield-to-Ocean Ecosystem Function in a Changing Climate Newport, Tidal Marsh Elevation Points SLR Projections, Newport, Calif., 2070-2110 CoSMoS v3.1 water level projections: 20-year storm in San Francisco County CoSMoS v3.1 water level projections: 100-year storm in Santa Barbara County CoSMoS v3.1 flood hazard projections: 1-year storm in San Luis Obispo County CoSMoS v3.1 ocean-currents hazards: 1-year storm in San Luis Obispo County CoSMoS v3.1 wave-hazard projections: 20-year storm in Monterey County CoSMoS v3.1 water level projections: 100-year storm in Monterey County A Fresh Set of Tools: New Information for Managing Fisheries During Changes in River Discharge Nearshore total water level (TWL) proxies (2018-2100) for Northern California Developing High-Resolution Rainfall Change Scenarios for the Hawaiian Islands Linking Extreme Storms to Changes in Precipitation, Ecosystems, and Wildfire Patterns in the Sierra Nevada Science to Inform Management of Floodplain Conservation Lands in a Changing World Characterizing Climate-Driven Changes to Flood Events and Floodplain Forests in the Upper Mississippi River to Inform Management Understanding and Communicating the Role of Natural Climate Variability in a Changing World Adapting to Climate Change: Trends and Severe Storm Responses by Migratory Landbirds and Their Habitats Understanding the Impacts of Glaciers on Streamflow in Alaska and Washington Understanding Ridge-to-Reef and Icefield-to-Ocean Ecosystem Function in a Changing Climate