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Burn probability (BP) for Fireline Intensity Class 3 (FIL3) with flame lengths in the range of 1.2-1.8 m predicted for the 2080-2100 period in the Rio Grande area. This raster dataset was generated using: 1) data developed from the 2014 Fire Program Analysis (FPA) system; 2) geospatial Fire Simulation (FSim) system developed by the US Forest Service Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory to estimate probabilistic components of wildfire risk (Finney et al. 2011); and 3) climate predictions developed using the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) method (Abatzoglou and Brown 2011) which downscaled model output from the GFDL-ESM-2m global climate model of the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project 5 for the...
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Burn probability (BP) for Fireline Intensity Class 1 (FIL1) with flame lengths in the range of 0-0.6 m predicted for the 2050-2070 period in the Rio Grande area. This raster dataset was generated using: 1) data developed from the 2014 Fire Program Analysis (FPA) system; 2) geospatial Fire Simulation (FSim) system developed by the US Forest Service Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory to estimate probabilistic components of wildfire risk (Finney et al. 2011); and 3) climate predictions developed using the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) method (Abatzoglou and Brown 2011) which downscaled model output from the GFDL-ESM-2m global climate model of the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project 5 for the 8.5...
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Burn probability (BP) for Fireline Intensity Class 4 (FIL4) with flame lengths in the range of 1.8-2.4 m predicted for the 2080-2100 period in the Rio Grande area. This raster dataset was generated using: 1) data developed from the 2014 Fire Program Analysis (FPA) system; 2) geospatial Fire Simulation (FSim) system developed by the US Forest Service Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory to estimate probabilistic components of wildfire risk (Finney et al. 2011); and 3) climate predictions developed using the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) method (Abatzoglou and Brown 2011) which downscaled model output from the GFDL-ESM-2m global climate model of the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project 5 for the...
Solar radiation grids were produced for a set of large fires sampled from within the Great Northern Landscape Conservation Cooperative study area. This solar radiation grid was produced using the Area Solar Radiation tool in ArcGIS 10.1, using inputs of the associated 30m DEM.
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This product used species distribution modeling (SDM) to model the geographic distribution fire promoting grasses across the islands of Hawaii under both current climate conditions and under future climate change scenarios (RCP 8.5 at year 2100). The RCP 8.5 scenario assumes unmitigated and continued release of greenhouse grasses and continued human population growth. Six species of well established and widely distributed grasses (Andropogon virginicus (broomsedge), Cenchrus ciliaris (buffelgrass), Cenchrus setaceus (fountain grass), Megathyrus maximus (guinea grass, Urochloa maxima, Pancicum maximum), Melinis minutiflora (mollasses grass), and Schizachyrium microstachyum (formerly referred to as S. condensatum...
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The dataset provides a spatially explicit estimate of 2019 herbaceous annual percent cover predicted on May 1st with an emphasis on annual grasses. The estimate is based on the mean output of two regression-tree models. For one model, we include, as an independent variable amongst other independent variables, a dataset that is the mean of 17-years of annual herbaceous percent cover (https://doi.org/10.5066/F71J98QK). This model's test mean error rate (n = 1670), based on nine different randomizations, equals 4.9% with a standard deviation of +/- 0.15. A second model was developed that did not include the mean of 17-years of annual herbaceous percent cover, and this model's test mean error rate (n = 1670), based...
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This data set contains output from the dynamic vegetation model MC1, as modified to simulate future woody encroachment in the northern Great Plains, for 23 monthly variables, 63 yearly variables, and 31 multi-year variables. Variables include simulated plant (by growth form) and soil carbon stocks, net primary production, vegetation type, potential and actual evapotranspiration, stream flow, and fuel mass and moisture. Model output is provided for the EQ, Spinup, Historical, and Future stages of MC1 runs; future stages were run for four climate projections crossed with 10 or 11 fire X grazing X CO2 concentration scenarios for the western and eastern portions of the study area, respectively.
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Reclassed areas of just sagebrush (1) and no sagebrush (0, areas with originally no sagebrush or recently burned areas). Landfire codes were: 2080, 2125, 2126, 2220, 2064, 2072, 2079, 2124) This layer is an intermediate layer used to create a sagebrush landscape cover layer using a moving window analysis. See Landfire metadata for an assessment of that data. See WFDSS, GEOMAC and MTBS fire metadata for more information on those data
We established a Landsat-derived geospatial database of unburned islands within 2,298 fires across the Inland Northwestern US (including eastern Washington, eastern Oregon, and Idaho) from 1984-2014. The detection of unburned areas within these fires is based upon a classification tree approach that uses two pre- and post-fire Landsat image pairs (see Meddens et al 2016 for details). The data set consist of unburned patches within each fire that are two pixels or larger. This database will be useful for identifying fire refugia, seed sources, and can be used as an overall metric of fire impacts across the northwestern US. (Meddens, A.J., Kolden, C.A., & Lutz, J.A. (2016). Detecting unburned areas within wildfire...
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FY2015This effort complements a project, supported by the Joint Fire Science Program, to explore relations among cheatgrass-driven fire, climate, and sensitive-status birds across the Great Basin. With support from the NW and SW Climate Science Centers and the GB CESU, we aim to engage managers at local, state, and regional levels, and to involve both field-level and director-level personnel, during all stages of the proposed project. Our methods of engagement are intended to save managers time and decrease some of the uncertainty in planning and decision-making rather than to create additional pressures on managers time. We will conduct field visits, workshops, and interactive briefings to build trust and increase...
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This map shows the projected percentage of suitable prescribed burning days in the south-eastern United States during the spring season (March to May) for the years 2010 to 2099.
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Burn probability (BP) for Fireline Intensity Class 6 (FIL6) with flame lengths in the range of 3.7-15 m predicted for the 2020-2040 period in the Rio Grande area. This raster dataset was generated using: 1) data developed from the 2014 Fire Program Analysis (FPA) system; 2) geospatial Fire Simulation (FSim) system developed by the US Forest Service Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory to estimate probabilistic components of wildfire risk (Finney et al. 2011); and 3) climate predictions developed using the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) method (Abatzoglou and Brown 2011) which downscaled model output from the GFDL-ESM-2m global climate model of the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project 5 for the 8.5...
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Fire type predicted for the 2050-2070 period in the Rio Grande area with five classes: 1) shrub vegetation with torching flames; 2) shrub vegetation without torching flames; 3) forest with torching flames; 4) forest without torching flames; 5) grass or non-vegetation. This raster dataset was generated using: 1) data developed from the 2014 Fire Program Analysis (FPA) system; 2) geospatial Fire Simulation (FSim) system developed by the US Forest Service Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory to estimate probabilistic components of wildfire risk (Finney et al. 2011); and 3) climate predictions developed using the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) method (Abatzoglou and Brown 2011) which downscaled model...


map background search result map search result map Output from MC1 Model Modified to Simulate Future Woody Encroachment in the Northern Great Plains Lucy's Warbler: 2030 Habitat Suitability Consensus of All Models Occult Bat: 2090 Habitat Suitability Consensus of All Models Long-legged Bat: 2030 Habitat Suitability Consensus of All Models Long-legged Bat: 2060 Habitat Suitability Consensus of All Models Long-legged Bat: 2090 Habitat Suitability Consensus of All Models American Bullfrog: 2060 Habitat Suitability Consensus of All Models Northern Leopard Frog: 2060 Habitat Suitability Consensus of All Models Burn Probability for Fireline Intensity Class 1, predicted for 2050 to 2070 for Rio Grande study area Burn Probability for Fireline Intensity Class 3, predicted for 2080 to 2100 for Rio Grande study area Burn Probability for Fireline Intensity Class 4, predicted for 2080 to 2100 for Rio Grande study area Burn Probability for Fireline Intensity Class 6, predicted for 2020 to 2040 for Rio Grande study area Fire type predicted for 2050 to 2070 for Rio Grande study area Sagebrush MW5k Percent Engagement of Managers and Researchers on Relations among Cheatgrass-driven Fire, Climate, and Sensitive-status Birds across the Great Basin Unburned areas within fire perimeters across the Inland Northwestern USA from 1984 to 2014 Early Estimates of Herbaceous Annual Cover in the Sagebrush Ecosystem (May 1, 2019) Percent Suitable Prescribed Burn Days - Spring 2010-2099 - RCP 8.5 Species Distribution Modeling of Invasive, Fire Promoting Grasses, Across the Hawaiian Islands in Both 2023 and Under a Future Scenario of Unmitigated Climate Change in 2100 Long-legged Bat: 2030 Habitat Suitability Consensus of All Models Long-legged Bat: 2060 Habitat Suitability Consensus of All Models Long-legged Bat: 2090 Habitat Suitability Consensus of All Models Lucy's Warbler: 2030 Habitat Suitability Consensus of All Models Occult Bat: 2090 Habitat Suitability Consensus of All Models American Bullfrog: 2060 Habitat Suitability Consensus of All Models Northern Leopard Frog: 2060 Habitat Suitability Consensus of All Models Species Distribution Modeling of Invasive, Fire Promoting Grasses, Across the Hawaiian Islands in Both 2023 and Under a Future Scenario of Unmitigated Climate Change in 2100 Burn Probability for Fireline Intensity Class 1, predicted for 2050 to 2070 for Rio Grande study area Burn Probability for Fireline Intensity Class 3, predicted for 2080 to 2100 for Rio Grande study area Burn Probability for Fireline Intensity Class 4, predicted for 2080 to 2100 for Rio Grande study area Burn Probability for Fireline Intensity Class 6, predicted for 2020 to 2040 for Rio Grande study area Fire type predicted for 2050 to 2070 for Rio Grande study area Unburned areas within fire perimeters across the Inland Northwestern USA from 1984 to 2014 Engagement of Managers and Researchers on Relations among Cheatgrass-driven Fire, Climate, and Sensitive-status Birds across the Great Basin Output from MC1 Model Modified to Simulate Future Woody Encroachment in the Northern Great Plains Early Estimates of Herbaceous Annual Cover in the Sagebrush Ecosystem (May 1, 2019) Percent Suitable Prescribed Burn Days - Spring 2010-2099 - RCP 8.5 Sagebrush MW5k Percent