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The Rio Grande River is a critical source of freshwater for 13 million people in Colorado, Texas, New Mexico, and Mexico. More than half of the Rio Grande’s streamflow originates as snowmelt in Colorado’s mountains, meaning that changes in the amount of snowmelt can impact the water supply for communities along the entire river. Snowmelt runoff is therefore an important component of water supply outlooks for the region, which are used by a variety of stakeholders to anticipate water availability in the springtime. It is critical that these water supply outlooks be as accurate as possible. Errors can cost states millions of dollars due to mis-allocation of water and lost agricultural productivity. There is a perception...
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Wildfires scorched 10 million acres across the United States in 2015, and for the first time on record, wildfire suppression costs topped $2 billion. Wildfire danger modeling is an important tool for understanding when and where wildfires will occur, and recent work by our team in the South Central United States has shown wildfire danger models may be improved by incorporating soil moisture information. Advancements in wildfire danger modeling may increase wildfire preparedness, and therefore decrease loss of life, property, and habitat due to wildfire. Still, soil moisture—an important determinant of wildfire risk—is not currently used for wildfire danger assessments because data are generally unavailable at the...
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Spatial data depicting marsh types (e.g. fresh, intermediate, brackish and saline) for the north-central Gulf of Mexico coast are inconsistent across the region, limiting the ability of conservation planners to model the current and future capacity of the coast to sustain priority species. The goal of this study was to (1) update the resolution of coastal Texas vegetation data to match that of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, and (2) update vegetation maps for the Texas through Alabama region using current Landsat Imagery. Creating consistent regional vegetation maps will enable scientists to model vegetation response to and potential impacts of future climate change.
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Prairies were once widespread across North America, but are now one of the most endangered and least protected ecosystems in the world. Agriculture and residential development have reduced once extensive prairies into a patchwork of remnant prairies and “surrogate” grasslands (e.g., hayfields, planted pastures). Grassland ecosystems and many grassland-dependent birds are also particularly vulnerable to rapid shifts in climate and associated changes in drought and extreme weather. The Central Flyway is a vast bird migration route that comprises more than half of the continental U.S., and extends from Central America to Canada, and harbors the greatest diversity of grassland birds in North America. Throughout this...
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The fast pace of change in coastal zones, the trillions of dollars of investment in human communities in coastal areas, and the myriad of ecosystem services natural coastal environments provide makes managing climate-related risks along coasts a massive challenge for all of the U.S. coastal states and territories. Answering questions about both the costs and the benefits of alternative adaptation strategies in the near term is critical to taxpayers, decision-makers, and to the biodiversity of the planet. There is significant public and private interest in using ecosystem based adaptation approaches to conserve critical significant ecosystems in coastal watersheds, estuaries and intertidal zones and to protect man-made...
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This data set includes a dropped-edge analysis of grassland and forest networks in the South Central United States based on land cover data from 2006 and graph theory to evaluate Landscape Resistance to Dispersal (LRD). LRD represents the degree to which habitat availability limits species movement. LRD decreases as habitat availability increases and increases as habitat availability decreases. This data set includes a range of LRD thresholds to represent species with different dispersal abilities and responses to landscape structure. A threshold indicates the highest LRD that still allows dispersal by a particular group of species. LRD thresholds are included in the data set, with low values representing connectivity...
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This data set includes bi-monthly data on submerged aquatic vegetation species composition, percent cover, above and below ground biomass and environmental data at coastal sites across the fresh to saline gradient in Barataria Bay, LA. This project was co-funded by the South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center and the Gulf Coast Prairie and the Gulf Coastal Plains and Ozarks Landscape Conservation Cooperatives. An alternate reference to this product can be found here.
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Create an inventory of water-related models that have been developed for the Rio Grande/Bravo basin. The summary includes a description of model river extent, spatial and temporal resolution, time period, model type, and their possible application for testing environmental flows or climate change future alternatives.
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The U.S. Geological Survey Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) was used to assess the effects of changing climate and land disturbance on seasonal streamflow in the Rio Grande Headwaters (RGHW) region. Three applications of PRMS in the RGHW were used to simulate 1) baseline effects of climate, 2) effects of bark-beetle induced tree mortality, and 3) effects of wildfire, on components of the hydrologic cycle and subsequent seasonal streamflow runoff from April through September for water years 1980 through 2017. PRMS input files and select PRMS output variables for each simulation are contained in this data release to accompany the journal article.
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Understanding the changes in the distribution and quantity of, and demand for, water resources in response to a changing climate is essential to planning for, and adapting to, future climatic conditions. In order to plan for future conditions and challenges, it is crucial that managers understand the limitations and uncertainties associated with the characterization of these changes when making management decisions. Changes in consumptive water use (water removed without return to a water resources system) will change streamflow, impacting downstream water users, their livelihoods, as well as aquatic ecosystems. Historical changes in available water may be attributed to changes in precipitation; but these changes...
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Freshwater mussels are an important component of freshwater ecosystems. They can filter a large amount of water, affecting both water clarity and water chemistry. Their shells provide physical habitat for other organisms, they re-direct necessary nutrients to the bottom of the water column, and their excreted material can enhance the growth of algae and macroinvertebrates. However, dramatic declines of freshwater mussels have occurred due to habitat loss, destruction and modification, pollution, and invasive species. One mussel species in Texas (Texas Hornshell) has been listed as endangered under the Endangered Species Act and several other species are candidates for listing. Changes in precipitation patterns...
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The South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center (CASC) has worked diligently to build new partnerships between scientists and resource managers to help address the science needs and questions of their stakeholders through actionable science. However, the growth of their stakeholder base and the loss of the Landscape Conservation Cooperatives has led to unmet demand for climate “extension services” from stakeholders. This project plans to establish a new scientist position at the South Central CASC focused on climate extension services and research coordination to help discover needed science solutions and to facilitate connections between the researcher and practitioner communities. The Climate Extension...
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Climate change has been, is, and will continue to affect Indigenous peoples across the south-central United States, amplifying a need to plan for and adapt to these changes before the impacts become catastrophic. Since June 2012, the South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center (CASC) has partnered with Tribes across Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas to conduct research, education, and outreach related to climate change, adaptation, and resilience; however, much more work is needed to prepare for climate change impacts on Indigenous lands, waters, and people. In this project, the research team will focus on strengthening South Central CASC partnerships with the Tribes and Pueblos in the South Central...
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The South Central CASC supports Communities of Practice who are dedicated to finding solutions to the challenges of a changing climate. The Communities of Practice comprise researchers and stakeholders who share a common interest and choose to invest their time in learning from others and developing new collaborations. As of March 2021, the South Central CASC is actively supporting six Communities of Practice. The Communities of Practice members meet together regularly and engage in a formal check-in with South Central CASC staff on a quarterly basis. The groups are also a key part of our Annual Fall Science Meeting where they outline goals and objectives for their group over the next year. The topics of interest...
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We used land cover projections for 2011 and 2050 of two scenarios derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). Scenario A1B emphasizes economic growth with a global orientation and scenario B2 focuses on environmental sustainability with a regional view. Our study area included counties within the southern Great Plains ecoregion in Oklahoma, Texas, and New Mexico. We calculated changes in landscape connectivity (dECA) between 2011 and 2050 for different species groups and landscape scenarios. We also calculated changes in habitat suitability (dA). We assessed the degree to which changes in landscape connectivity were influenced by changes in grassland...
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Extreme weather events (such as floods, ice storms, tropical cyclones, and tornadoes) are increasing in frequency and causing severe consequences throughout the U.S. and particularly in Louisiana. These natural disasters are especially devastating for farmers, whose livelihoods depend on the environment. Most climate research and extension outreach focus on large-scale farmers and tend to reach White farmers who outnumber other farming communities, often failing to connect with smallholding and African American farmers. While these farmers make up less of the total agricultural population and economy, they are a critical part of the agricultural and ecological systems and a crucial component in building sustainable...
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The loss or decline of culturally significant plants is a major concern for many tribal managers. Culturally significant plants are essential to many aspects of life for tribal members, including medicine, ceremonial practices, and traditional food dishes. In many parts of the U.S., droughts, floods, and changes in the timing of frost events are stressing these plants and in some cases have led to decreases in their areas of suitable habitat or a reduction in their resistance to disease. The goal of this project is to hold a research symposium that will bring together tribal resource managers and scientists from a range of disciplines in the South Central region to identify which culturally significant species...
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The combined effects of climate change (e.g. increased freshwater supply, sea level rise, etc.), leveeing of the Mississippi River, and the gradual settling of soil have led to a land loss crisis in coastal Louisiana. Coastal wetlands provide various ecosystem services to local coastal communities, such as storm protection, flood control, and habitat for economically and ecologically important plants and animals. The loss of such valuable wetlands has become concerning to these communities as well as natural resource managers. Creating new coastal wetlands and reconnecting the Mississippi River to adjacent wetlands are two common strategies to mitigate coastal land loss and protect vulnerable coastal communities,...
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The South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center (CASC) strives to provide actionable science, tools, and information to decision makers in order to address climate change and variability. In this effort, the South Central CASC supports actionable science through multi-institutional and stakeholder driven approaches to assessing the impacts of climate on natural and cultural resources. The South Central CASC is hosted by the University of Oklahoma with six consortium partners: Texas Tech University, The Chickasaw Nation, The Choctaw Nation of Oklahoma, Louisiana State University, Oklahoma State University, and University of New Mexico. During the period of 2019 – 2024, the South Central CASC consortium will strive...
map background search result map search result map Mapping Fresh, Intermediate, Brackish and Saline Marshes in the North Central Gulf of Mexico Coast to Inform Future Projections Assessing the Drivers of Water Availability for Historic and Future Conditions in the South Central U.S. Developing Tools for Improved Water Supply Forecasting in the Rio Grande Headwaters Submerged aquatic vegetation and environmental data along a salinity gradient in Barataria Bay, Louisiana (2015) River extent of water related models in the Rio Grande/Bravo basin Rio Grande-Rio Bravo Basin Subset Data Wildfire Probability Mapping Based on Regional Soil Moisture Models Future changes in landscape connectivity for grassland species in the southern Great Plains based on a scenario of future land-use change that focuses on environmental sustainability with a regional view Dropped-edge analysis of terrestrial connectivity of grassland and forest networks in the South Central United States based on the National Land Cover Database from 2006 Assessing the Impacts of Rapid Rainfall Shifts (“Whiplashes” and “Boomerangs”) on Freshwater Mussels in Central Texas Strategies for Reducing the Vulnerability of Grassland Birds to Climate Change within the Central Flyway Research Symposium: Culturally Significant Plants and Climate Change Model input and output for hydrologic simulations in the Rio Grande Headwaters, Colorado, using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) Evaluating Ecosystem-Based Adaptation Options for Coastal Resilience Climate Extension Services for the South Central U.S. South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center Consortium - Hosted by The University of Oklahoma (2019-2024) Planning for a Fresher Future: Implications of River Management Practices on Salt Marsh Restoration Projects in Coastal Louisiana Communities of Practice Assessing the Needs and Adaptation Practices of Smallholding and African American Farmers Facing Extreme Weather Events in Louisiana Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience for Tribes and Pueblos in OK, TX, NM, and LA Mapping Fresh, Intermediate, Brackish and Saline Marshes in the North Central Gulf of Mexico Coast to Inform Future Projections Planning for a Fresher Future: Implications of River Management Practices on Salt Marsh Restoration Projects in Coastal Louisiana Assessing the Needs and Adaptation Practices of Smallholding and African American Farmers Facing Extreme Weather Events in Louisiana Submerged aquatic vegetation and environmental data along a salinity gradient in Barataria Bay, Louisiana (2015) Assessing the Impacts of Rapid Rainfall Shifts (“Whiplashes” and “Boomerangs”) on Freshwater Mussels in Central Texas Future changes in landscape connectivity for grassland species in the southern Great Plains based on a scenario of future land-use change that focuses on environmental sustainability with a regional view River extent of water related models in the Rio Grande/Bravo basin Rio Grande-Rio Bravo Basin Subset Data Dropped-edge analysis of terrestrial connectivity of grassland and forest networks in the South Central United States based on the National Land Cover Database from 2006 Wildfire Probability Mapping Based on Regional Soil Moisture Models Research Symposium: Culturally Significant Plants and Climate Change South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center Consortium - Hosted by The University of Oklahoma (2019-2024) Communities of Practice Climate Extension Services for the South Central U.S. Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience for Tribes and Pueblos in OK, TX, NM, and LA Assessing the Drivers of Water Availability for Historic and Future Conditions in the South Central U.S. Strategies for Reducing the Vulnerability of Grassland Birds to Climate Change within the Central Flyway Evaluating Ecosystem-Based Adaptation Options for Coastal Resilience