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Climate in the southeastern U.S. is predicted to be changing at a slower rate than other parts of North America. However, land use change associated with urbanization is having a significant effect on wildlife populations and habitat availability. We sought to understand the effect of global warming on both beneficial and pest insects of trees. We used urban warming as a proxy for global warming as many cities have already warmed as much, due to heat island effects, as they are expected to warm due to climate change by 2050 or even 2100. We were able to develop good predictive models of how warming influences beneficial and pest insects for cities in the Southeast and across the east coast more generally. We were...
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Urbanization in the Southeast U.S. is among the fastest in the nation, and represents a primary threat to threatened and endangered species. As urbanized areas expand, they are encroaching on preserved areas, like national wildlife refuges, and are dividing forests into smaller fragments. Forests that are located next to cities and suburbs are exposed to high temperatures, pollution, insect pests, invasive plants, and other factors that threaten forest health. However, forests located within urban and suburban areas – “urban forests” are capable of supporting diverse plant and animal life, and could play an increasingly important role in conservation as urbanization continues. Little is currently known about how...
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In ecosystems characterized by flowing water, such as rivers and streams, the dynamics of how the water moves - how deep it is, how fast it flows, how often it floods - have direct effects on the health, diversity, and sustainability of underlying communities. Yet increasingly, climate extremes like droughts and floods are disrupting fragile stream ecosystems by specifically changing their internal aquatic flows. Human infrastructure, such as irrigation and dams, further disrupt these dynamics. These changes in climate and land use are leading to teh fragmentation of aquatic habtiat, degraded water quality, altered sediment transport processes, variation in the timing and duration of floodplain inundation, shifts...
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Recreational birding is a popular activity in the United States. To assess the spatial distribution of recreational birding in the southeast, we combined two data sources: eBird (Sullivan et al. 2009) and the National Survey of Fishing, Hunting, and Wildlife-associated Recreation (NSFHWAR; US Department of Interior, Fish and Wildlife Service, and Department of Commerce 2011). We used spatial birding data from eBird to distribute the state-level NSFHWAR birding data by watershed (HUC 8) and land protection status. This information was used to identify priority watersheds for conservation of birding areas. These are watersheds with a high level of birding activity where at least 90% of birding activity takes place...
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Publicly accessible open spaces provide valuable opportunities for people to exercise, play, socialize, and build community. People are more likely to use public open spaces that are close (ideally within walking distance) to their homes. To assess the spatial distribution of access to open space for recreation in the southeastern United States, we constructed an index of open space access based on the size of the largest publicly accessible open space within 10 miles of each point on the landscape, using three distance categories to represent whether people can reach the open spaces by walking (within 0.5 mile), via a short drive (within 3 miles), or via a longer drive (within 10 miles). Using the open space access...
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Wild insect pollination has significant positive effects on pollinator-dependent crop production. While managed honeybees are often used to provide pollination to pollinator-dependent crops, visits by wild insect pollinators have been shown to be more effective in increasing fruit set than managed pollinators, and wild insect pollination increases fruit set even when managed pollinator visitation is high (Garibaldi et al. 2013). The total value of the pollination services provided by wild, native insects has been estimated at $3.07 billion annually (2003 dollars) in the United States (Losey & Vaughan 2006). To assess the spatial distribution of potential wild insect pollination, we mapped the supply of potential...
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One of the largest and most expensive restoration efforts in the world is the restoration of the Everglades, a sub-tropical freshwater wetland system located in southern Florida. This unique ecosystem supports several endemic and endangered species, provides flood control for Florida’s large urban population, and provides water for both the agricultural and drinking supply within the state. The Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP), authorized by Congress in 2000, guides federal, state, and local efforts to build the infrastructure necessary to bring more water into the Everglades and restore its ecological integrity. The Everglades flows into the southern coast of Florida and restoration efforts are...
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Thousands of plant and animal species are culturally important to the Indigenous peoples of North America. Global change is leading to major shifts in the abundance, distribution, and life history of these species, with concomitant effects on their value to the peoples for whom they are most culturally important. While a number of studies have begun to explore the futures of culturally significant species, these studies typically do so in isolation, focusing on individual plant species and single future scenarios, and involve little engagement with the people for whom such species are most important. This project seeks to fill this gap by examining the future of culturally important species as climate conditions...
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A team of USGS and academic researchers developed a comprehensive web-based dataset of high-resolution (or ‘downscaled’) climate change projections, enabling scientists and decision-makers to better assess climate related ecosystem impacts. The research team implemented a three-part plan to provide high resolution climate data for the impact modeling community. First, a database was developed of up-to-date and state-of-the-art downscaled climate projections for the U.S., using a range of plausible future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Second, a series of workshops were held to solicit input about climate-related data needs and to discuss best practices for accessing and using downscaled climate projections....
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The broad range of complex factors influencing coastal systems contribute to large uncertainties in predicting long-term sea level rise impacts. Researchers demonstrated the capabilities of a Bayesian network (BN) to predict long-term shoreline change associated with sea level rise and make quantitative assessments for predicting uncertainty. A BN was used to define relationships between driving forces, geologic constraints, and coastal response for the U.S. Atlantic coast that include observations of local rates of relative sea level rise, wave height, tide range, geomorphic classification, coastal slope, and shoreline change rate. The BN was used to make probabilistic predictions of shoreline retreat in response...
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This project seeks to enhance the stewardship of historic buildings vulnerable to climate change impacts. As sea level rise and storm-related flooding and erosion threaten our nation’s cultural heritage, there is a critical need to ensure that climate change adaptation decisions, including what cultural resources will be “let go”, are transparent and informed by the opinion of people whose heritage is tied to those resources. This project aims to enhance an existing decision support framework that supports adaptation planning by the National Park Service at coastal parks. The researchers of this project will focus particularly on Cape Lookout National Seashore. The current decision support framework, called the...
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The North Carolina Natural and Working Lands Action Plan, part of the North Carolina Climate Risk Assessment and Resilience Plan, was created in response to Executive Order 80 to identify opportunities for North Carolina’s natural and working lands (NWL), including farms, forests, and wetlands, to sequester carbon, support ecosystem and community resilience, and enhance the state’s economy. In collaboration with the North Carolina’s Natural and Working Lands stakeholder group, the Nicholas Institute helped to develop maps and recommendations for the Natural and Working Lands Action Plan (PDF) related to managing lands in the state to enhance these benefits. Opportunity maps identified the geographic scope of many...
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Changing climate conditions could have significant impacts on wildlife health. Shifts in temperature and precipitation may directly affect the occurrence of disease in fish and wildlife by altering their interactions with pathogens (such as the bacterium that causes Lyme disease), helping vectors like mosquitoes and ticks expand their range, or speeding up the time it takes for a parasite to develop from an egg to an adult. Climate change can also indirectly affect the health of fish and wildlife as their habitats change. For example, reduced food availability could lead to overcrowding and increased disease transmission, or warmer temperatures might increase stress levels, weakening immune systems and making animals...
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Habitat fragmentation occurs when loss of habitat (e.g. to land use changes or human development) divides large or connected habitat areas into smaller, more isolated areas. This process is recognized as one of the most pressing conservation issues in the Southeastern U.S. Habitat loss and fragmentation reduces the amount of suitable habitat available to wildlife species, divides wildlife populations and reduces genetic diversity, and interrupts important migration patterns; and climate change is likely to disrupt habitat areas even more. Maintaining connectivity between habitats and wildlife populations will be a key management strategy for conserving biodiversity in the region into the future. Previous work by...
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Coastal wetlands provide a suite of valuable benefits to people and wildlife, including important habitat, improved water quality, reduced flooding impacts, and protected coastlines. However, in the 21st century accelerated sea-level rise and coastal development are expected to greatly alter coastal landscapes across the globe. The future of coastal wetlands is uncertain, challenging coastal environmental managers to develop conservation strategies that will increase the resilience of these valuable ecosystems to change and preserve the benefits they provide. One strategy for preparing for the effects of sea-level rise is to ensure that there is space available for coastal wetlands to adapt by migration. In a...
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The southeastern U.S. contains a unique diversity of ecosystems that provide important benefits, including habitat for rare wildlife and plants, improved water quality, and recreation opportunities. Understanding how climate change will affect these ecosystems is vital for knowing how best to protect them and the services they supply. The goal of this project was to assess the climate change vulnerability of 12 key ecosystems in the southeastern U.S. and Caribbean, ranging from Caribbean coastal mangrove to Nashville Basin limestone glade and woodland. Scientists used the existing scientific literature and geospatial analysis to determine each ecosystem’s sensitivity to changes in climate, its exposure level to...
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Low-lying public lands along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast are vulnerable to sea-level rise. Coastal planners and resource managers in the region have requested customized information that can be used to concisely communicate local sea-level rise scenarios and identify potential impacts to the missions of management agencies. In this project, researchers will work with the Northern Gulf of Mexico Sentinel Site Cooperative to develop fact sheets outlining potential sea-level rise scenarios for the region through 2100, and the potential impacts of these varying amounts of sea-level rise on the missions of national wildlife refuge and national park lands along the U.S. Gulf Coast. Researchers will draw from existing...
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Located between Wellfleet and Turo, Massachusetts, the 1100-acre Herring River watershed has historically provided many ecological and social benefits, including forest and wetland habitat for native fish, birds, and mammals and recreational and educational opportunities for residents and visitors. Construction of a dike and ditches beginning in the early 1900s constricted tidal exchange into the river basin, resulting in ecological degradation of the estuary, loss of valued salt marsh and extensive conversion to upland habitat vegetation. Tidal restrictions limit passage of fish species that spend their time in both fresh and salt water into the Herring River, have resulted in dangerous bacterial levels posing...
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Coastal wetlands purify water, protect coastal communities from storms, sequester (store) carbon, and provide habitat for fish and wildlife. They are also vulnerable to climate change. In particular, changes in winter climate (warmer temperatures and fewer freeze events) may transform coastal wetlands in the northern Gulf of Mexico, as mangrove forests are expected to expand their range and replace salt marshes. The objective of this research was to evaluate the ecological implications of mangrove forest migration and salt marsh displacement. As part of this project, researchers identified important thresholds for ecosystem changes and highlighted coastal areas in the southeastern U.S. (e.g., Texas, Louisiana,...
map background search result map search result map Ecological Implications of Mangrove Forest Migration in the Southeastern U.S. Assessing Climate-Sensitive Ecosystems in the Southeastern U.S. Tree Eaters: Predicting the Response of Herbivores to the Integrated Effects of Urban and Global Change Beyond just sea level rise: incorporating climate into coastal wetland vulnerability assessments SERAP: Comprehensive Web-based Climate Change Projections: Downscaled Maps and Data SERAP: Assessment of Shoreline Retreat in Response to Sea Level Rise Enhancing the Capacity of Coastal Wetlands to Adapt to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Development Turning the Science of Connectivity into Action: Finding Model Consistency and Identifying Priority Habitats for Conservation Synthesizing Climate Change Impacts on Wildlife Health and Identifying Adaptation Strategies The Future of Culturally Important Species in North America Effects of Urbanization on the Conservation Value of Forests Communicating Future Sea-Level Rise Scenarios for Gulf Coast National Wildlife Refuge and National Park Lands Conservation and Restoration Priorities for Wild Pollinator Habitat in the Southeast United States, by Subwatershed (2011) Conservation Priorities for Recreational Birding in the Southeast United States, by Watershed (2011) Conservation Priorities for Open Space Recreation Access in the Southeast United States, by County (2018) Application of an Adaptive Management Plan to Reduce Uncertainty and Improve Decisions in Restoring the Herring River Estuary Examining Diverse Management Objectives and Broadening Stakeholder Engagement for Climate Adaptation Planning of Historic Structures within the National Park System Integrating Sea Level Rise Scenarios into Everglades Restoration Planning Future of Aquatic Flows: Towards a National Synthesis of Streamflow Regimes Under a Changing Climate Natural and Working Lands Planning in North Carolina Application of an Adaptive Management Plan to Reduce Uncertainty and Improve Decisions in Restoring the Herring River Estuary Integrating Sea Level Rise Scenarios into Everglades Restoration Planning Examining Diverse Management Objectives and Broadening Stakeholder Engagement for Climate Adaptation Planning of Historic Structures within the National Park System SERAP: Assessment of Shoreline Retreat in Response to Sea Level Rise Natural and Working Lands Planning in North Carolina Ecological Implications of Mangrove Forest Migration in the Southeastern U.S. Turning the Science of Connectivity into Action: Finding Model Consistency and Identifying Priority Habitats for Conservation Effects of Urbanization on the Conservation Value of Forests Beyond just sea level rise: incorporating climate into coastal wetland vulnerability assessments Enhancing the Capacity of Coastal Wetlands to Adapt to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Development Communicating Future Sea-Level Rise Scenarios for Gulf Coast National Wildlife Refuge and National Park Lands Conservation Priorities for Open Space Recreation Access in the Southeast United States, by County (2018) Conservation and Restoration Priorities for Wild Pollinator Habitat in the Southeast United States, by Subwatershed (2011) Conservation Priorities for Recreational Birding in the Southeast United States, by Watershed (2011) Assessing Climate-Sensitive Ecosystems in the Southeastern U.S. Tree Eaters: Predicting the Response of Herbivores to the Integrated Effects of Urban and Global Change The Future of Culturally Important Species in North America SERAP: Comprehensive Web-based Climate Change Projections: Downscaled Maps and Data Future of Aquatic Flows: Towards a National Synthesis of Streamflow Regimes Under a Changing Climate Synthesizing Climate Change Impacts on Wildlife Health and Identifying Adaptation Strategies