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Hellbender presence data was acquired from NatureServe and limited to points dating from 1980 to the present, with individual points adapted from the available data. Geospatial data was acquired from the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Land Cover Database (NLCD) and the Horizon Systems Corporation National Hydrography Dataset (NHD) Version 2. The study was conducted over the extent of the Appalachian LCC. Environmental variables of consideration were determined through literature review and expert advice on the species (Personal correspondence, Quinn, 2009). Hellbender presence data was sub-sampled to reduce spatial bias. Pseudo-absence points were also calculated to be within 1 km of the position of the presence...
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There is mounting concern that climate change will lead to the collapse of cyclic population dynamics, yet the influence of climate variability on population cycling remains poorly understood. We hypothesized that variability in survival and fecundity, driven by climate variability at different points in the life cycle, scales up from local populations to drive regional characteristics of population cycling and spatial synchronization.
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The availability of output from climate model ensembles,such as phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP3 and CMIP5), has greatly expanded information about future projections,but there is no accepted blueprint for how this data should be utilized.The multi-model average is themost commonly cited single estimate of future conditions,but higher-order moments representing thevariance and skewness of the distribution of projections provide important information about uncertainty. We have analyzed a set of statistically downscaled climate model projections from the CMIP3 archive to assess extreme weather events at a level aimed to be appropriate for decisionmakers. Our analysis uses the distribution...
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Systematic conservation planning is well suited to address the many large-scale biodiversity conservation challenges facing the Appalachian region. However, broad, well-connected landscapes will be required to sustain many of the natural resources important to this area into the future. If these landscapes are to be resilient to impending change, it will likely require an orchestrated and collaborative effort reaching across jurisdictional and political boundaries. The first step in realizing this vision is prioritizing discrete places and actions that hold the greatest promise for the protection of biodiversity. The irreplacebility of the landscape was assessed to determine the importance of conservation. The number...
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The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides impartial and independent data on the nation’s energy infrastructure, its sources, flows, and end uses, as well as forecasts and outlooks. Location information for specific extraction activities, as well as power plants and other supply chain components, can help reveal the regional nature of specific impacts and the often large distances between those effects and end-use drivers.This is a point dataset representing operating surface and underground coal mines in the United States in 2012. These data originate from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-7A “Coal Production and Preparation Report” and the U.S. Department of Labor, Mine Safety...
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The capacity of ecosystems to provide services such as carbon storage, clean water, and forest products is determined not only by variations in ecosystem properties across landscapes, but also by ecosystem dynamics over time. ForWarn is a system developed by the U.S. Forest Service to monitor vegetation change using satellite imagery for the continental United States. It provides near real-time change maps that are updated every eight days, and summaries of these data also provide long-term change maps from 2000 to the present. Based on the detection of change in vegetation productivity, the ForWarn system monitors the effects of disturbances such as wildfires, insects, diseases, drought, and other effects of weather,...
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Regional Climate Centers (RCC) Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI: drought index). Recent 10-year climatology for drought in all months, 2005-2014. Drought is one of the most consequential aspects of variation in precipitation and temperature patterns in terms of its impacts on natural ecosystems and human systems. The production of food and clean water can be strongly affected, as can forest products production, outdoor recreation, ecosystem processes such as wildland fire, and many other processes affecting ecosystem services. Having a grasp on recent ranges of variability in drought conditions can provide a context for understanding ongoing and future climate change and its impacts on ecosystem services. Although...
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Our goal was to predict road culvert passability, as defined by culvert outlet drop and outlet water velocity, for three fish swimming groups using remotely collected environmental variables that have been shown to influence the passability of road culverts.We generated four boosted regression tree models, one for road culvert outlet drop and one each for the three culvert outlet water velocities, and predicted the probability of impassable road culverts on low-order streams based on the models. Independent variables in the modelsincluded the upstream area draining to the culvert, slope at the culvert, stream segment gradient and stream reach gradient.Gradient of the stream segment was the most important predictor...
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Northern Great Lakes forests represent an ecotone in the boreal–temperate transition zone and are expected to change dramatically with climate change. Managers are increasingly seeking adaptation strategies to manage these forests. We explored the efficacy of two alternative management scenarios compared with business-as-usual (BAU) management: expanding forest reserves meant to preserve forest identity and increase resistance, and modified silviculture meant to preserve forest function and increase adaptive capacity. Our study landscapes encompassed northeastern Minnesota and northern Lower Michigan, which are predicted to experience significant changes in a future climate and represent a gradient of latitude,...
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Regional Climate Centers (RCC) Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI: drought index). Recent 10-year climatology for drought in summer months, 2005-2014.Drought is one of the most consequential aspects of variation in precipitation and temperature patterns in terms of its impacts on natural ecosystems and human systems. The production of food and clean water can be strongly affected, as can forest products production, outdoor recreation, ecosystem processes such as wildland fire, and many other processes affecting ecosystem services. Having a grasp on recent ranges of variability in drought conditions can provide a context for understanding ongoing and future climate change and its impacts on ecosystem services. Although...
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Total Basal Area (BA) for all tree species is in square feet per acre.To monitor the potential hazards posed by invasive pathogens, the U.S. Forest Service’s Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team (FHTET) created a national database designed to assess the potential hazards on tree mortality and identify forest ecosystems at risk of invasive or pathogenic threats.When the introduction or increased activity of invasive or pathogenic plant and animal species dramatically alters the structure and function of ecosystems, the benefits that those ecosystems provide to people are also affected. Additionally, the negative effects of forest pathogens and invasives on certain species may be exacerbated by climate change,...
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Landscape conservation cooperatives (LCCs) are conservation-science partnerships between the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and other federal agencies, states, tribes, NGOs, universities and stakeholders within a geographically defined area. They inform resource management decisions to address national-scale stressors, including habitat fragmentation, genetic isolation, spread of invasive species, and water scarcity, all of which are accelerated by climate change. This dataset represents the geographic boundary of the Appalachian LCC.
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Regional Climate Centers (RCC) Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI: drought index). Recent 10-year climatology for drought in all months, 1950-1999.Drought is one of the most consequential aspects of variation in precipitation and temperature patterns in terms of its impacts on natural ecosystems and human systems. The production of food and clean water can be strongly affected, as can forest products production, outdoor recreation, ecosystem processes such as wildland fire, and many other processes affecting ecosystem services. Having a grasp on recent ranges of variability in drought conditions can provide a context for understanding ongoing and future climate change and its impacts on ecosystem services. Although...
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The Urban Influence measure developed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Economic Research Service (ERS) identifies metropolitan counties by population size and outlines where natural area and urban boundaries exist. This can help to indicate where increased stresses on ecosystem services may occur.The boundaries between urban, rural, and natural areas in Appalachia are increasingly defined by the accelerated demand for ecosystem services from growing urban populations. Increases in “urbanness” not only stress the capacity of affected landscapes to provide ecosystem services, but also magnify the pressure on nearby natural areas to provide those services to more people. However, opportunities exist for...
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A key challenge in aquatic restoration efforts is documenting locations where ecological connectivity is disrupted in water bodies that are dammed or crossed by roads (road crossings). To prioritize actions aimed at restoring connectivity, we argue that there is a need for systematic inventories of these potential barriers at regional and national scales. Here, we address this limitation for the North American Great Lakes basin by compiling the best available spatial data on the locations of dams and road crossings. Our spatial database documents 38 times as many road crossings as dams in the Great Lakes basin, and case studies indicate that, on average, only 36% of road crossings in the area are fully passable...
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Developing conservation strategies for threatened species increasingly requires understanding vulnerabilities to climate change, in terms of both demographic sensitivities to climatic and other environmental factors, and exposure to variability in those factors over time and space. Weconducted a range-wide, spatially explicit climate change vulnerability assessment for Eastern Massasauga (Sistrurus catenatus), a declining endemic species in a region showing strong environmental change. Using active season and winter adult survival estimates derived from 17 data sets throughout the species’ range, we identified demographic sensitivities to winter drought, maximum precipitation during the summer, and the proportion...
College of Menominee Nation Sustainable Development Institute hosted a 3-day summit in October 2014 focused on different levels of climate change adaptation training for Tribes. This event included opportunities to network between indigenous practitioners, tribal leaders and land managers, federal agencies, and climate change scientists. The information was specific to the Northeast region, but was open to all who were interested in the issues of climate change and Tribes. The Summit provided an opportunity to gain introductory and more advanced climate change adaptation planning skills and information, identify next steps for adaptation, and make connections between tribes and academic/governmental climate change...
map background search result map search result map Eastern Hellbender Suitable Habitat Drought The Palmer Drought Severity Index Annual Mean 2005-2014 Drought The Palmer Drought Severity Index Winter Mean 2005-2014 Drought The Palmer Drought Severity Index Annual Mean 1950-1999 Percent of Tree Basal Area at Risk of Forest Pathogens ForWarn Evergreen Thrive and Decline 2000-2012 Economic Research Council Urban Influence Codes 2013 Energy Information Association U.S. Coal Mining Locations Density of upstream dams_rivers Anthropogenic sediment yield Appalachian LCC Landscape Conservation Design Phase 1 Species Richness Appalachian LCC Boundary_applcc-shp-004 Publication: Restoring aquatic ecosystem connectivity requires expanding inventories of both dams and road crossings Publication: Predicting road culvert passability for migratory fishes Publication: Interpreting climate model projections of extreme weather events Publication: Climate variability drives population cycling and synchrony Publication: Demographic consequences of climate change and land cover help explain a history of extirpations and range contraction in a declining snake species Publication: Effects of alternative forest management on biomass and species diversity in the face of climate change in the northern Great Lakes region Publication: Effects of alternative forest management on biomass and species diversity in the face of climate change in the northern Great Lakes region Economic Research Council Urban Influence Codes 2013 Appalachian LCC Boundary_applcc-shp-004 Density of upstream dams_rivers Anthropogenic sediment yield ForWarn Evergreen Thrive and Decline 2000-2012 Eastern Hellbender Suitable Habitat Appalachian LCC Landscape Conservation Design Phase 1 Species Richness Drought The Palmer Drought Severity Index Annual Mean 2005-2014 Drought The Palmer Drought Severity Index Winter Mean 2005-2014 Drought The Palmer Drought Severity Index Annual Mean 1950-1999 Percent of Tree Basal Area at Risk of Forest Pathogens Publication: Restoring aquatic ecosystem connectivity requires expanding inventories of both dams and road crossings Publication: Predicting road culvert passability for migratory fishes Publication: Interpreting climate model projections of extreme weather events Publication: Climate variability drives population cycling and synchrony Publication: Demographic consequences of climate change and land cover help explain a history of extirpations and range contraction in a declining snake species Energy Information Association U.S. Coal Mining Locations