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This project developed a soil vulnerability index and map indicating where forest cover will be most affected by climate change. Using this map, researchers developed a greater understanding of potential changes in soil moisture and temperature regimes under future climate conditions. They then evaluated how this information could be used to improve vegetation models across the landscape. They compared the results of different modeling approaches to the soil vulnerability map, synthesized the state of knowledge and uncertainty, and introduced management implications for action.
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2011, AK, AK, AK, AK, All tags...
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This project evaluates the connections between climate change impacts and health in Bristol Bay communities. Climate change impacts were assessed through the lens of public health, with an eye towards the potential effects on disease, injury, food and water security, and mental health. Three focal communities were included in this assessment: Nondalton, a lake community, Levelock, a river community, and Pilot Point, a coastal community. The resulting assessment reports will be used to assist focal communities, as well as neighboring communities, in addressing climate-change related issues.
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT MODELS, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT MODELS, COASTAL AREAS, COASTAL AREAS, Decision Support, All tags...
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Our project focuses on understanding patterns and causes of recent population declines in the Haleakala silversword that are associated with decreasing precipitation, increasing temperature, and related climate changes in Hawaii’s high-elevation ecosystems. The Haleakala silversword is an ideal taxon with which to assess impacts from climate change. It forms the foundation of a diverse alpine community and likely reflects wider ecological changes; it is already exhibiting patterns of mortality consistent with an upslope shifting distribution; and its high visibility and symbolic status make it unmatched in educational potential. Building on extensive research infrastructure, we propose to collect the demographic...
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Contemporary observations suggest that water may disappear entirely from portions of some North Slope stream-beds during periods of drought or low flow. Climate models project even drier summers in the future. This could pose a problem for migrating fish that must be able to move back and forth from breeding and summer feeding areas to scarce overwintering sites. This work uses the best available long-term hydrologic data set for the North Slope (in the upper Kuparuk River watershed) to develop a model to assess the vulnerability of stream systems to periodic drought, and the vulnerability of migrating fish to a loss of stream connectivity.
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The Wildlife Conservation Society will assess the climate change vulnerability of bird species that regularly breed in substantial populations in Alaska using the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) tool. Initial work will focus on breeding birds in Arctic Alaska including shorebirds, waterfowl and waterbird species (loons, gulls, terns, jaegers), and land bird species (passerines, raptors, ptarmigan).
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The rugged landscapes of northern Idaho and western Montana support biodiverse ecosystems, and provide a variety of natural resources and services for human communities. However, the benefits provided by these ecosystems may be at risk as changing climate magnifies existing stressors and allows new stressors to emerge. Preparation for and response to these potential changes can be most effectively addressed through multi-stakeholder partnerships, evaluating vulnerability of important resources to climate change, and developing response and preparation strategies for managing key natural resources in a changing world. This project supports climate-smart conservation and management across forests of northern Idaho...
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This project used species distribution modeling to assess the risk to habitat change under various climate change scenarios for rare plants. To predict the response of rare plant species to climate change, the project modeled the current distribution of the species using climate and environmental data (e.g., soils, disturbance, land-use), use these models to predict the species distribution given climate change, calculate current and future range size, calculate the amount of overlap of predicted future distribution with current distribution, and assess where barriers and protected areas are located with reference to the change in species distribution. Given the results of the distribution modeling, each species...
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The USGS National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC), as part of the work of the Interagency Land Management Adaptation Group (ILMAG), initiated a project in 2013 to develop plans for a searchable, public registry on climate change vulnerability assessments. Member agencies from the USGCRP Adaptation Science Work Group, the Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies (AFWA), and several NGO’s also contributed. Vulnerability assessments are important for identifying resources that are most likely to be affected by climate change and providing insights on why certain resources are vulnerable. Consequently, they provide valuable information for informing climate change adaptation planning. CRAVe allows...
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There are many challenges in detecting precipitation trends in Alaska. The most substantial are the small number of observations, inhomogeneities, differences among gridded data sets, and differentiating between long-term trends and decadal variability. Analyzing both station and regional products will increase our understanding of where local trends in precipitation may differ significantly from regional trends, providing key information for developing better downscaled climate projections. These in turn, will provide insight into fine scale heterogeneity in climate change that may be important in determining the stability of key habitat features, such as wetlands and insect avoidance areas. As a by-product of...
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The Beaufort Sea coast in Arctic Alaska and neighboring northern Canada has recently experienced extreme and accelerated climate change, including a dramatic reduction in summer sea ice. Human systems will likely be impacted through changes to oil industry and community infrastructure currently in place along parts of the coast, to habitat availability for harvested species such as caribou, waterbirds, and anadromous fish, to culturally important landscape elements, and to both recreational and subsistence coastal access. We used literature review and structured interviews to 1) identify current, broad interests for ongoing coastal research in the arctic, 2) identify the best mechanisms and format for communicating...
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Our proposal addresses Funding Category Ill by evaluating natural resource management practices and adaptation opportunities. More specifically, our project addresses Science Need #6 to improve monitoring and inventory of watersheds and ecosystems (including invasive species). Our proposed study will occur within the Southern Rockies Landscape Conservation Cooperative (LCC) (upper Virgin River, UT) and the Desert LCC (lower Virgin River, AZ and NVL and therefore will be submitting to both cooperatives. Invasive saltcedar (Tamarix spp.) is the third most abundant tree in Southwestern riparian systems (Friedman et al. 2005). Resource managers must often balance the management goals of protecting wildlife species and...
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2012, AZ-01, AZ-02, AZ-03, AZ-04, All tags...
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Texas Tech University will conduct quantitative and predictive analysis of the connectivity of isolated desert “wetlands”, that include tinajas, the name for eroded pools in bedrock, for 20 wildlife species over the Sonoran desert ecoregion. Potential loss of wetlands due to climate change will also be studied to identify high value areas that can be prioritized for future restoration efforts and targeted for better management practices.Target species for landscape connectivity analysis include:Colorado River toad ( Incilius alverius )American bullfrog ( Lithobates catesbeianus )Chiricahua leopard frog ( Lithobates chiricahuensis )Lowland leopard frog ( Lithobates yavapaiensis )Couch’s spadefoot ( Scaphiopus couchii...
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This project obtained information regarding past catastrophic events, such as tsunamis, and TEK through oral history interviews with Tolowa elders regarding the effects of climate change and tsunamis on traditional smelt fishing camps; generated a GIS model of coastal inundation due to sea level rise and overlaid that with known archaeological and ethnographic resources; generated a final report with detailed information of past tsunami events, and modeled the potential effects of climate change and sea level rise on archaeological and ethnographic Tolowa sites using TEK and GIS based upon the results of this study.
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2012, CA-2, CA-2, California, California, All tags...
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This project applied sea-level rise (SLR) modeling approaches along the Pacific coast tidal gradient at a parcel scale through improved data collection tools and collaboration relevant to land managers. At selected salt marsh parcels in both the North Pacific and California LCCs, data collection techniques were employed to assess detailed baseline habitat elevations; tidal ranges, microclimate, and extreme weather events; sediment supply sources; vegetation community composition; and vertebrate population indices. The design provides resource managers with information on the value of different datasets and methods including their uncertainty, as well as determines their usefulness in climate change adaptation planning...
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2011, Academics & scientific researchers, Alaska, British Columbia, CA-2, All tags...
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Building on currently available resources and on the prior climate adaptation experiences of our team,which includes tribal staff and a cultural anthropologist who is also an enrolled member of theConfederated Tribes of Siletz Indians, we will co-develop a guidebook for tribal adaptation. Thisguidebook will bring a tribal focus to adaptation planning and building resilience, in the context ofexisting tribal priorities, and will include traditional and local knowledge as well as western scientificresources and tools. Under the direction of an advisory group, the guidebook will be road-tested withseveral tribes, two of which have already been identified, and then revised at least once before beingreleased.
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Climate change is already affecting species in many ways. Because individual species respond to climate change differently, some will be adversely affected by climate change whereas others may benefit. Successfully managing species in a changing climate will require an understanding of which species will be most and least impacted by climate change. Although several approaches have been proposed for assessing the vulnerability of species to climate change, it is unclear whether these approaches are likely to produce similar results. In this study, we compared the relative vulnerabilities to climate change of 76 species of birds, mammals, amphibians, and trees based on three different approaches to assessing vulnerability....
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FY2014Although the future of sage grouse depends on the future of sagebrush, we have limited ability to anticipate impacts of climate change on sagebrush populations. Current efforts to forecast sagebrush habitat typically rely on species distribution models (SDMs), which suffer from a variety of well-known weaknesses. However, by integrating SDMs with complementary research approaches, such as historical data analysis and mechanistic models, we can provide increased confidence in projections of habitat change. Our goal is to forecast the effect of climate change on the distribution and abundance of big sagebrush in order to inform conservation planning, and sage grouse management in particular, across the Intermountain...
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This project will apply the results of an on-going climate change vulnerability assessment to the management of two complex landscapes. The vulnerability assessment project team will work with mangers, land-owners, and conservation practitioners to explore 1) how downscaled climate datasets, modeled vegetation changes, and information on estimated species sensitivities can be used to develop climate change adaptation strategies, and 2) how model results and datasets can be made more useful for informing the management of species and landscapes. To accomplish these two goals, we will prepare datasets and model outputs for two landscapespotentially, the Pioneer Mountains-Craters of the Moon region in Idaho and the...
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: Climate Change, Columbia Basin, Columbia Plateau, Connectivity, Conservation Plan/Design/Framework, All tags...
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FY2013This project retrieves four years of data from over 200 temperature sensors nested within 28 sites across ~40 million hectares of the hydrographic Great Basin. The sensors span all major aspects and up to 700 m of elevation within sites, and occur in numerous management jurisdictions in 18 mountain ranges plus other areas not in ranges. This project: Quantifies the variability of climate at micro-, meso-, and macroscales across the Basin, and across diel, seasonal, and interannual periods. Informs management and conservation efforts, in terms of helping calibrate and refine the climatic stage upon which all biological actors and efforts hinge (Beier and Brost 2010). Feeds into other bioclimatic and wildlife...
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2013, 2014, Academics & scientific researchers, California, California, All tags...
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This project evaluated the potential impacts of storm surges and relative sea level rise on nesting geese and eider species that commonly breed on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (Y-K Delta). Habitat suitability maps for breeding waterbirds were developed to identify current waterbird breeding habitat and distributions. Short-term climate change impacts were assessed by comparing nest densities in relation to magnitude of storms that occurred in the prior fall from 2000-2013. Additionally, nest densities were modeled using random forests in relation to the time-integrated flood index (e.g., a storm specific measure accounting for both water depth and duration of flooding) for four modeled storms (2005, 2006, 2009, and...
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: DELTAS, DELTAS, DUCKS/GEESE/SWANS, DUCKS/GEESE/SWANS, Decision Support, All tags...


map background search result map search result map Understanding Climate Change Vulnerability in the Pacific Northwest: A Comparison of Three Approaches Pacific Northwest Forest Soils:  Creating a Soil Vulnerability Index to Identify Drought Sensitive Areas Humboldt Bay NWR Sea-level rise modeling Assessing and Mapping Rare Plant Species Vulnerability to Climate Change Applying Vulnerability Assessment Tools to Plan for Climate Adaptation: Case Studies in the Great Northern LCC Development of the Climate Registry for the Assessment of Vulnerability (CRAVe): A Searchable, Public Online Tool for Understanding Species and Habitat Vulnerability Moving from Awareness to Action: Informing Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments and Adaptation Planning for Idaho and Montana National Forests Effects of Bio-Control and Restoration on Wildlife in Southwestern Riparian Habitats Landscape Connectivity of Isolated Waters for Wildlife in the Sonoran Desert Characterization of Montane Ecosystems, Their Microclimates, and Wildlife Distribution and Abundance Across the Hydrographic Great Basin Using TEK to model the effects of climate change and sea-level rise on coastal cultural resources at Tolowa Dunes State Park, Del Norte County, California Understanding how climate change is affecting Hawaii's high-elevation ecosystems: an assessment of the long-term viability of Haleakala silverswords and associated biological communities Forecasting Changes in Sagebrush Distribution and Abundance Under Climate Change: Integration of Spatial, Temporal, and Mechanistic Models Developing resilience to natural and cultural dimensions of climate change: Tribal perspectives and applications
the transboundary Cascadia landscape, and assessing contribution of eDNA to monitoring
priority species Linking North Slope Climate, Hydrology, and Fish Migration Needs Assessment and Work Plan for Coastal Change Outreach on the Beaufort Sea coast, Alaska Climate Change Health Assessments for Three Coastal, Riverine and Lake System Communities Reconciling precipitation trends in Alaska: Comparison of trends in gridded precipitation products and station records The impacts of storm surges on breeding waterbirds on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska: past effects and future projected impacts Climate Change Vulnerability of Migrating Bird Species Breeding in Arctic Alaska Developing resilience to natural and cultural dimensions of climate change: Tribal perspectives and applications
the transboundary Cascadia landscape, and assessing contribution of eDNA to monitoring
priority species Understanding how climate change is affecting Hawaii's high-elevation ecosystems: an assessment of the long-term viability of Haleakala silverswords and associated biological communities Humboldt Bay NWR Sea-level rise modeling Using TEK to model the effects of climate change and sea-level rise on coastal cultural resources at Tolowa Dunes State Park, Del Norte County, California Linking North Slope Climate, Hydrology, and Fish Migration The impacts of storm surges on breeding waterbirds on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska: past effects and future projected impacts Applying Vulnerability Assessment Tools to Plan for Climate Adaptation: Case Studies in the Great Northern LCC Effects of Bio-Control and Restoration on Wildlife in Southwestern Riparian Habitats Moving from Awareness to Action: Informing Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments and Adaptation Planning for Idaho and Montana National Forests Landscape Connectivity of Isolated Waters for Wildlife in the Sonoran Desert Needs Assessment and Work Plan for Coastal Change Outreach on the Beaufort Sea coast, Alaska Characterization of Montane Ecosystems, Their Microclimates, and Wildlife Distribution and Abundance Across the Hydrographic Great Basin Climate Change Health Assessments for Three Coastal, Riverine and Lake System Communities Pacific Northwest Forest Soils:  Creating a Soil Vulnerability Index to Identify Drought Sensitive Areas Assessing and Mapping Rare Plant Species Vulnerability to Climate Change Climate Change Vulnerability of Migrating Bird Species Breeding in Arctic Alaska Forecasting Changes in Sagebrush Distribution and Abundance Under Climate Change: Integration of Spatial, Temporal, and Mechanistic Models Understanding Climate Change Vulnerability in the Pacific Northwest: A Comparison of Three Approaches Reconciling precipitation trends in Alaska: Comparison of trends in gridded precipitation products and station records Development of the Climate Registry for the Assessment of Vulnerability (CRAVe): A Searchable, Public Online Tool for Understanding Species and Habitat Vulnerability