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The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. CoSMoS 3.2 for Northern California shows projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms) to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm-hazards information that can be used to increase public safety, mitigate physical damages, and more effectively manage and allocate resources within complex coastal settings. Data for Northern California covers the coastline from Golden Gate Bridge to the California-Oregon state border.
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Simulatations of water levels in the Salish Sea for a continuous hindcast of the period October 1, 1985, to September 30, 2015 were conducted to evaluate the utility and skill of a sea-level anomaly predictor and to develop extreme water level estimates accounting for decadal climate variability. The model accounts for sea level position, tides, remote sea-level anomalies, local winds and storm surge and stream flows as they affect water density. Comparison of modeled and measured water levels showed the model predicts extreme water levels at NOAA tide gage stations within 0.15 m. Model inputs and outputs of time-series water levels along the -5 m depth isobath are presented. In addition, extreme water level recurrence...
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Cross-shore transects (CSTs) developed for Coastal Storm Model (CoSMoS) work in Northern California 3.2 are presented. 3,528 CSTs are numbered consecutively from 8067 at Golden Gate Bridge to 11,594 at the California/Oregon state border. Each of the profiles extend from the approximate -15 m isobath to at least 10 m above NAVD88 (truncated in cases where a lagoon or other waterway exists on the landward end of the profile), and are spaced approximately 100-250 m apart.
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Simulations of water levels in the Salish Sea over the period October 1, 2016 to September 30, 2020 were conducted to validate the Salish Sea hydrodynamic model. The model accounts for sea level position, tides, remote sea-level anomalies, local winds and storm surge and stream flows as they affect water density. Comparison of modeled and measured water levels showed the model predicts extreme water levels at NOAA and USGS tide gage stations within 0.15 m. Model inputs and outputs of time-series forcing and water levels, respectively, are presented.
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This dataset contains projections of shoreline change and uncertainty bands across California for future scenarios of sea-level rise (SLR). Projections were made using the Coastal Storm Modeling System - Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool (CoSMoS-COAST), a numerical model run in an ensemble forced with global-to-local nested wave models and assimilated with satellite-derived shoreline (SDS) observations across the state. Scenarios include 25, 50, 75, 100, 125, 150, 175, 200, 250, 300 and 500 centimeters (cm) of SLR by the year 2100. Output for SLR of 0 cm is also included, reflective of conditions in 2000.
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Meteorological data, including wind speed, wind direction, air temperature, relative humidity, and air pressure, were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center at a site located in Grizzly Bay, California. A Vaisala WXT530 meteorological station was mounted atop of a dolphin-type mooring structure, from January to June 2020. The data were truncated based on deployment and recovery times of hydrodynamic time-series data, spurious data points from the wind sensor were removed, and the file was written to netCDF. Spurious points were identified based on a recorded wind speed of 0. These points were set to NaN (Not a Number). Users are advised to assess data quality carefully,...
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This dataset contains projections coastal cliff retreat and associated uncertainty across Northern California for future scenarios of sea-level rise scenarios; scenarios include 25, 50, 75, 100, 125, 150, 175, 200, 250, 300, and 500 centimeters (cm) of SLR by the year 2100 and cover coastline from the Golden Gate Bridge to the California-Oregon state border. Present-day cliff-edge positions used as the baseline for projections are also included. Projections were made using numerical models and field observations such as historical cliff retreat rate, nearshore slope, coastal cliff height, and mean annual wave power, as part of Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS). See cited references and methods for more detail.
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Simulations of the period 2016-2099 were conducted using the Salish Sea hydrodynamic model to evaluate extreme water levels associated with anticipated changes in sea level and climate forcing. The model projections accounting for sea level position, tides, remote sea-level anomalies, local winds and storm surge and stream flows as they affect water density. Dynamically downscaled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) CMIP5 GFDL wind and atmospheric pressure fields were prescribed over the model open boundary and used to compute sea-level anomaly prescribed at the model ocean boundary. Simulations were made for eight different Sea-Level Rise (SLR) conditions, 0, 0.25, 0.5, 1, 1.5, 2, 3, and 5 meters relative to...
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Nearshore proxies for total water level (TWL) developed for Coastal Storm Model (CoSMoS) work in Northern California 3.2 are presented. Deterministic dynamical modeling of future climate conditions and associated hazards, such as flooding, can be computationally-expensive if century-long time-series of waves, sea level variations, and overland flow patterns are simulated. To focus such modeling on storm events of interest, local impacts over long time periods and large geographical areas are estimated. Nearshore proxies for total water level (TWL) are generated via a computationally simple approach, assuming a linear superposition of the important processes contributing to overall total water level. A time series...
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A two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of the Salish Sea was constructed using the Delft3D Flexible Mesh Suite (Deltares, 2020) to simulate still water levels in the past and future and evaluate extreme recurrence water level events accounting for sea level rise and climate change. Three sets of model simulations were performed following Grossman and others (2023). The first simulated the water years (October 1 – September 30) of 2017 to 2020 to validate the model and assess model error. The second simulation used the validated model to evaluate the period 1985-2015, the utility of a computed “remote sea level anomaly predictor” important to understanding of extreme water levels inside the Salish Sea, and to quantify...


    map background search result map search result map Meteorological data from Grizzly Bay, California, 2020 Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for Northern California 3.2 Nearshore total water level (TWL) proxies (2018-2100) for Northern California Northern California cross-shore transects for CoSMoS 3.2 CoSMoS Northern California (3.2) projections of coastal cliff retreat due to 21st century sea-level rise Salish Sea Hydrodynamic Model Salish Sea water level validation simulations: 2017-2020 Salish Sea water level hindcast simulations: 1985-2015 Salish Sea water level simulation projections: 2016-2099 Projections of shoreline change for California due to 21st century sea-level rise Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for Northern California 3.2 Nearshore total water level (TWL) proxies (2018-2100) for Northern California Northern California cross-shore transects for CoSMoS 3.2 CoSMoS Northern California (3.2) projections of coastal cliff retreat due to 21st century sea-level rise Salish Sea Hydrodynamic Model Salish Sea water level validation simulations: 2017-2020 Salish Sea water level hindcast simulations: 1985-2015 Salish Sea water level simulation projections: 2016-2099 Projections of shoreline change for California due to 21st century sea-level rise