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Folders: ROOT > ScienceBase Catalog > National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers > National CASC > FY 2009 Projects ( Show all descendants )

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Water scarcity is a growing concern in Texas, where surface water is derived almost entirely from rainfall. Changes in air temperature and precipitation patterns associated with global climate change are anticipated to regionally affect the quality and quantity of inland surface waters and consequently their suitability as habitat for freshwater life. In addition to directly affecting resident organisms and populations, these changes in physicochemical traits of aquatic habitats may favor the establishment of harmful invasive species. As conflicts over the use of water resources grow in intensity, this information will become important for fish and wildlife managers to anticipate impacts of climate change on trust...
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Throughout its native range in the Eastern U.S., the brook trout is a culturally and economically important species that is sensitive to warming stream temperatures and habitat degradation. The purpose of this assessment was to determine the impacts that projected future land use and climate changes might have on the condition of stream habitat to support self-sustaining brook trout populations. The study region encompassed the historic native range of brook trout, which includes the northeastern states and follows the Appalachian Mountains south to Georgia, where the distribution is limited to higher elevation streams with suitable water temperatures. Relationships between recent observations of brook trout and...
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Global climate change and sea-level rise will have profound effects on estuarine fish, shellfish and wildlife populations and their habitats. Our ability to manage sustainable fish, shellfish and other wildlife populations in the future will be seriously compromised unless we have a basic understanding of the coming changes and use this to develop mitigation and adaptation measures. The overall objective of this multi-agency research is to develop the baseline climatic and biological data, models, and tools to predict the cumulative impact of climate change on habitats and ecosystem services in a series of coastal estuaries of the Pacific Northwest. In collaboration with other federal, state, and non-governmental...
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Quaking aspen populations are declining in much of the West due to altered fire regimes, competition with conifers, herbivory, drought, disease, and insect outbreaks. Aspen stands typically support higher bird biodiversity and abundance than surrounding habitat types, and maintaining current distribution and abundance of several bird species in the northern Great Basin is likely tied to the persistence of aspen in the landscape. This project examined the effects of climate change on aspen and associated bird communities by coupling empirical models of avian-habitat relationships with landscape simulations of vegetation community and disturbance dynamics under various climate change scenarios. Field data on avian...
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This project built on an existing regional conservation partnership to use the most recent downscaled climate model projections to forecast the likely impacts of climate change to species and ecosystems in the Lower Mississippi Valley (LMV). The objective of this work was to develop and test ecological and biological models to facilitate regional adaptive management of wildlife resources and the forest and wetland ecosystems that support them in the LMV. The modeled projections were then used to evaluate climate change effects on high priority bird species, waterfowl, amphibians, and fisheries. In particular, the researchers sought to answer two key questions: (1) what are the impacts of predicted climate change...
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As glaciers melt from climate change, their contents – namely, large quantities of freshwater, sediment, and nutrients – are slowly released into coastal ecosystems. This project addressed the impacts of melting glaciers on coastal ecosystems in the Copper River region of the Gulf of Alaska, which is home to several commercially important fisheries. Researchers examined how glacial melting is altering the amount and timing of freshwater that enters the Gulf of Alaska from the Copper River. They also investigated the source and amount of two nutrients, iron and nitrate, dissolved in the water. As a complementary piece of the study, researchers tested the relationship between nutrient levels, plankton populations,...
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North American freshwater mussels are in serious decline as a result of pollution and habitat destruction from human activities. In addition, many mussel species are living in habitats that push the upper limits of their heat tolerance, which may become problematic as the climate and, as a result, water temperatures warm. As part of this project, we created a set of models to predict how freshwater mussels would respond to climate change effects. Our primary objective was to help federal and state natural resource managers forecast how mussel species will respond to climate change over the next 30 to 50 years, so that managers can develop appropriate adaptation strategies to address these changes. Additionally,...
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Conservation and natural resource managers require information about potential future climate changes for the areas they manage, in terms that are relevant for the specific biotic and environmental resources likely to be affected by climate change. We produced a suite of data sets that provide managers with climate and climate-derived data and a visualization approach that allows managers to map where 1) a managed area's potential future climate is located on today's landscape (i.e., the locations of the modern analogues of future climate) and 2) the areas to which the present climate (and habitat) of managed areas are projected to move. We produced downscaled climate data from historical (1901-2000) data sets and...
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Florida is home to 50 endangered species, 23 National Wildlife Refuges, 9 national parks, and 119 state parks. Straddling both temperate and sub-tropical zones, the state is also unique in that it is a long and narrow peninsula, surrounded on three sides by warm water, creating a dynamic environment. The impacts of climate change, such as sea-level rise and severe storms, threaten the state’s unique biodiversity—yet managers are unsure how species will respond to these changes, which makes planning for the future difficult. In order to identify the impacts of climate change on Florida’s plants and wildlife, researchers developed regional climate scenarios identifying how temperature and precipitation patterns...
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If current climate change trends continue, rising sea levels could inundate low-lying islands across the globe. The Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI) is a group of islands of great conservation importance that is threatened by sea-level rise. Stretching 2,000 km beyond the main Hawaiian Islands, the NWHI are a World Heritage Site and part of the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument. The islands support the largest tropical seabird rookery in the world, providing breeding habitat for 21 species of seabirds, 4 land bird species, and essential habitat for other resident and migratory wildlife. Because these are low-lying islands, even small increases in sea-level could result in the loss of critical habitat,...
Categories: Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2009, Baby Brooks Bank, Bank 66, Birds, Birds, All tags...
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This project produced long simulations (multi-decadal to multi-century in scale) of past, present, and future regional climate at a grid spacing of 50 kilometers (km) over North America and at a grid spacing of 15 km over western and eastern North America. These model runs were the first attempt to achieve coordinated, high-resolution downscaling with such wide geographic and temporal coverage. The objectives of this project were to (1) understand the nature of climate change and variability, (2) quantify the climate-driven responses and feedbacks of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, wildfire, the hydrologic cycle, and alpine glaciers, and (3) provide climate information in a form that is useful to a wide range...
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Great Lakes fishery managers and stakeholders have little information regarding how climate change could affect the management and conservation of fish populations, including those of high recreational and commercial value. Scientists from the US Geological Survey (USGS) worked closely with state management agencies and the National Wildlife Federation to complete several objectives that provide knowledge to aid their planning and management strategies in anticipation of coming changes. First, researchers updated a regional Great Lakes climate model to predict water level changes, water temperatures, and ice cover data for the entire Great Lakes basin 50-100 years into the future. Second, researchers used satellite...
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To develop effective adaptive management plans, conservation and natural resource managers need to know how climate change will affect the species and ecosystems they manage. This project provides managers with information about potential climate change effects on species and managed areas in the Pacific Northwest. We evaluated projected changes in climate, vegetation, and species distributions through the year 2099 and assessed the potential impacts of these changes on key species and managed lands. We worked with conservation and natural resource managers to incorporate the results of this study into state, federal, and non-governmental organization (NGO) management plans. The projected changes in climate, vegetation,...
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Previous climate change research for the Colorado River Basin has used down-scaled climate models to predict impacts to hydropower and the potential ability to meet mandated water releases. The Lower Colorado River Basin (LCRB) has one of the most imperiled fish faunas in the nation with about half of the native fish species listed as Threatened or Endangered under the Federal Endangered Species Act. Current water demands for agriculture and human consumption are only slightly less than long-term annual flows. Future projections based on climate change alone indicate decreased precipitation, increased temperatures, and lower annual runoff which will further stress this ecosystem that is experiencing among the highest...
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Migratory birds are important for recreation and tourism, contributing to a vibrant birdwatching industry in Alaska. Every spring, hundreds of birds migrate to their summer breeding grounds in Alaska and northern Canada. Their arrival is timed with the height of the spring green-up of plants, which provide the food necessary for birds to reproduce and raise their young. However, over the last fifty years, warming temperatures in Alaska as a result of climate change have prompted an earlier transition from winter to spring. The purpose of this project was to examine whether there have been changes in the timing of spring green-up in recent years (1985-2009) and, if so, whether migratory birds are adapting their migration...
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Snowshoe hares are the primary food source of the federally threatened Canada lynx. In western Montana for example, snowshoe hare make up 96% of lynx diet. In fact, hares are critical players in forest ecosystems because most carnivores prey on them. The main way that snowshoe hares escape predation is through camouflage. In response to changes in day length, snowshoe hares molt seasonally, changing color from brown to white in the winter to blend in with the snowfall and hide from predators. However, due to shorter snow seasons caused by recent changes in climate, snowshoe hares are turning white before it snows, making them more visible to predators. Because 21 other species around the world also undergo these...
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Fisheries and aquatic habitats throughout the United States are in dire need of protection or restoration because human activities have resulted in severe degradation of those habitats. Further, future climatic changes will continue to affect human land-use, temperature, and water flows. Natural resource managers need to identify and prioritize habitats so that limited time and funding can be focused on habitats that are in most need of protection both now and in the future, based on projected climate changes. This project was comprised of a team of scientists from the US Geological Survey, Kansas State University, Michigan State University, Penn State University, the University of Minnesota-Duluth, the University...
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Climate change has emerged as a key environmental concern of the 21st century and a major challenge for land and wildlife managers. Although scientists have made tremendous progress in predicting the impact of climate change on a regional and global scale, drilling down such projections to a locally applicable form has been difficult. A major project of the US Geological Survey's (USGS) Southwest Biological Science Center (SBSC), funded by the USGS National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC), drew on the work of an interdisciplinary team of scientists to help close the gap between theory and practical application in the arid southwestern U.S. Climate change in this region is predicted to be extreme,...
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In collaboration with the University of Missouri and Iowa State University, this project advanced efforts to understand and accommodate uncertainty by applying to Missouri River sturgeon population dynamics the tools of multi-scale climate models and hierarchical Bayesian modeling frameworks, linking models for system components together by formal rules of probability. While a complete climate prediction may be intractable at this time -- for instance, the climate projections may not incorporate land use changes and solar fluctuations into the boundary conditions -- we proposed a framework to quantify known uncertainty that is also flexible enough to adapt to advances in climate predictions. A key advantage of the...


    map background search result map search result map How will Florida’s Biodiversity Respond to Climate Change? Can Camouflage Keep up with Climate Change? Connecting Climate Projections to Adaptation for the Snowshoe Hare Projecting Future Impacts to River Systems and Large River Fish: Missouri River Sturgeon Example Forecasting Climate Impacts on Wildlife of the Arid Southwest at Regional and Local Scales Using Downscaled Climate Models Forecasting Climate Change Induced Effects on Recreational and Commercial Fish Populations in the Great Lakes Impacts of Climate Change and Melting Glaciers on Coastal Ecosystems in the Gulf of Alaska Impacts of Climate-Driven Changes in Spring Green-Up on Migratory Birds in Alaska Science to Inform Future Management of the Nation's Fisheries and Aquatic Habitat Modeling the Response of Freshwater Mussels to Changes in Water Temperature, Habitat, and Streamflow Predicting Climate Change Threats to Key Estuarine Habitats and Ecosystem Services in the Pacific Northwest Predicting the Risk of Species Extinctions Due to Sea-Level Rise in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands Quantifying Vulnerability of Quaking Aspen Woodlands and Associated Bird Communities to Global Climate Change in the Northern Great Basin A Visualization Approach for Projecting Future Climate Distributions in North America Modeling and Projecting the Influence of Climate Change on Texas Surface Waters and their Aquatic Biotic Communities Assessing the Vulnerability of Species and Ecosystems to Projected Future Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest Downscaled Climate Change Modeling for the Conterminous United States (National Assessment) Projected Vulnerability of Brook Trout to Climate and Land Use Changes in the Eastern U.S. (Regional Assessment) Projected Climate and Land Use Change Impacts on Aquatic Habitats of the Lower Colorado River Basin (Regional Assessment) Forecasting the Effects of Land-Use and Climate Change on Wildlife Communities and Habitats in the Lower Mississippi Valley Predicting Climate Change Threats to Key Estuarine Habitats and Ecosystem Services in the Pacific Northwest Quantifying Vulnerability of Quaking Aspen Woodlands and Associated Bird Communities to Global Climate Change in the Northern Great Basin Can Camouflage Keep up with Climate Change? Connecting Climate Projections to Adaptation for the Snowshoe Hare How will Florida’s Biodiversity Respond to Climate Change? Forecasting the Effects of Land-Use and Climate Change on Wildlife Communities and Habitats in the Lower Mississippi Valley Impacts of Climate Change and Melting Glaciers on Coastal Ecosystems in the Gulf of Alaska Projected Climate and Land Use Change Impacts on Aquatic Habitats of the Lower Colorado River Basin (Regional Assessment) Modeling and Projecting the Influence of Climate Change on Texas Surface Waters and their Aquatic Biotic Communities Predicting the Risk of Species Extinctions Due to Sea-Level Rise in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands Forecasting Climate Change Induced Effects on Recreational and Commercial Fish Populations in the Great Lakes Projected Vulnerability of Brook Trout to Climate and Land Use Changes in the Eastern U.S. (Regional Assessment) Projecting Future Impacts to River Systems and Large River Fish: Missouri River Sturgeon Example Forecasting Climate Impacts on Wildlife of the Arid Southwest at Regional and Local Scales Using Downscaled Climate Models Assessing the Vulnerability of Species and Ecosystems to Projected Future Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest Science to Inform Future Management of the Nation's Fisheries and Aquatic Habitat Impacts of Climate-Driven Changes in Spring Green-Up on Migratory Birds in Alaska Downscaled Climate Change Modeling for the Conterminous United States (National Assessment) Modeling the Response of Freshwater Mussels to Changes in Water Temperature, Habitat, and Streamflow A Visualization Approach for Projecting Future Climate Distributions in North America