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Globally, ecosystemsare subjected toprolonged droughts and extremeheat events, leading to forest die-offs and dominance shifts in vegetation. Some scientists and managers view soil as the main resource to be considered in monitoring ecosystem responses to aridification. As the mediumthroughwhich precipitation is received, stored, and redistributed for plant use, soil is an important factor in the sensitivity of ecosystems to a drying climate. This study presents a novel approach to evaluating where on a landscape soils may be most sensitive to drying, making them less resilient to disturbance, and where potential future vegetation changes could lead to such disturbance. The drying and devegetation of arid lands...