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Vernal pools are small, seasonal wetlands that provide critically important seasonal habitat for many amphibian species of conservation concern. Natural resource managers and scientists in the Northeast, as well as the Northeast Refugia Research Coalition, coordinated by the Northeast CSC, recently identified vernal pools as a priority ecosystem to study, and recent revisions to State Wildlife Action Plans highlighted climate change and disease as primary threats to key vernal pool ecosystems. Mapping out the hydrology of vernal pools across the Northeast is an important step in informing land management and conservation decision-making. Project researchers modeled the hydrology of roughly 450 vernal pools from...
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Cold-water adapted Brook Trout were historically widely distributed – ranging from northern Quebec to Georgia, and from the Atlantic Ocean to Manitoba in the north, and along the Appalachian ridge in the south. However, studies show that due to factors associated with climate change, such as increased stream temperature and changing water flow, the number of streams containing Brook Trout is declining. Although efforts have been made to protect and restore this cold-water fish at local levels, the extent that temperature increases will vary within and across different streams and the ability of Brook Trout to seek cold-water refugia or adapt to these increasing stream temperatures currently remains unclear. The...
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Negative human-bear interactions are a common problem and management priority for many wildlife agencies in North America. Bears are adaptable to anthropogenic activity and food sources which creates opportunities for conflict with humans, including property damage, livestock depredation, and in severe cases, human injury. Acute climate events and long-term directional climate change can exacerbate the frequency and severity of human-bear interactions by changing resource availability, increasing overlap between humans and wildlife, and driving competition. Despite the pervasive threat that climate change poses, studies evaluating climate, human-wildlife interactions, and adaptive management strategies are limited....
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The smallmouth bass (SMB) is a widespread species with a distribution that extends throughout the eastern and central U.S., in addition to introduced populations in other regions. From a management perspective, the SMB is important both as a popular sport fish and as a threat to native species where it is present outside of its natural range. Understanding the population-level responses of this species to environmental change is thus a priority for fisheries resource managers. This project aimed to explicitly model the impacts of projected climate and land use change on the growth, population dynamics, and distribution of stream-dwelling SMB in the U.S. Impacts on growth and demographic variables were modeled using...
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The populations of many forest birds have declined in recent decades due to loss of habitat area and degradation of habitat quality. Past land management has left the landscape of the heavily forested Appalachian Mountains with too little old growth as well as too few young, regenerating forests. This change in habitat structure has led to the listing of several forest birds as Species of Greatest Conservation Need. Active management is needed to maintain habitat for these species, but climate change may alter the kinds of management that are effective. Climate change is likely to affect forest structure – and bird habitat suitability – because of shifts in temperature, precipitation, and disturbance. While current...
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A hydrologic model was developed as part of the Southeast Regional Assessment Project using the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a deterministic, distributed-parameter, process-based system that simulates the effects of precipitation, temperature, and land use on basin hydrology. Streamflow and other components of the hydrologic cycle simulated by PRMS were used to inform other types of simulations such as water-temperature, hydrodynamic, and ecosystem-dynamics simulations.
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This project brought together a team of researchers from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and universities to develop a comprehensive web-based dataset of high-resolution (or ‘downscaled’) climate change projections, to enable scientists and decision-makers to better assess climate related ecosystem impacts. Currently, scientists and resource managers often find it difficult to use downscaled climate projections because of the multiple methodologies used to produce them and the time-consuming process required to obtain model output. In response, the research team implemented a three-part plan to provide high resolution climate data for the impact modeling community. First, a database was developed of up-to-date...
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We are seeking to better understand networks among resource managers with respect to developing plans for climate change adaptation. We are pursuing this through a network analysis based on a survey of federal resource management staff and scientists in the southwestern and Midwestern U.S. Originally planned, this study was conceived to cover the Southwest and North Central Climate Science Centers, as defined by the USGS. In practice, surveys are most easily distributed within regions as defined by the federal resource agencies. Unfortunately, there is no uniform set of regions. We have tried to be comprehensive in our survey and cover at least the North Central and Southwestern Region.
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Landslides are a common hazard on FSM and identified as a significant risk to human life by the CDC. In 1997, tropical storms (TS) triggered landslides in Pohnpei that resulted in 20 fatalities, impacting 14 homes. In 2002, a TS triggered over 250 landslides in Chuuk resulting in 47 fatalities and impacting 231 structures, totaling $100 million in damages. FSM has also been impacted by disastrous landslides in 1991, 1992, 2004, and 2018 – and certainly many other unreported landslides. Following the 2002 event, the CDC found that “increasing knowledge of natural warnings can reduce the risk for mortality during landslides.” As a first step, knowing what areas are susceptible to landslide hazards is key. To this...
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Species are adapted to particular environmental conditions, but are threatened as climate change shifts habitat conditions. One way species can respond is by moving to new suitable locations, known as climate-driven range shifts. But some species can move more easily and/or more quickly than others, and some landscapes are more difficult to cross. In the upper Midwest, the movement potential of many species is reduced by broad expanses of row-crop agriculture, roads and other types of development that fragment the remaining habitat. It is important to sustain and improve connectivity across landscapes so they can continue to support biodiversity and ecosystem services like water filtration, carbon storage, pollinator...
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FY2019Multijurisdictional, international landscape with many shared priorities but lacks landscape (inter-jurisdictional) perspective. Landscape conservation design process will provide landscape context and future scenarios to support coordinated conservation investment.FY2020Entering Phase 2 of a 3-year project, a Landscape Conservation Design (LCD) will deliver a set of strategies that the Crown Managers Partnership and dozens of stakeholders can deploy to achieve desired ecological conditions based on defined, measurable resource outcomes across the Crown of the Continent ecosystem. LCD is a holistic, participatory process bringing stakeholders together to define a desired future for the Crown landscape and...
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Many amphibian species are highly susceptible to changes in precipitation timing and volume because of their reliance on intermittently flooded surface water pools, which are primarily filled through snowmelt and precipitation runoff. ​With increasing evapotranspiration (i.e. transfer of water from land to the atmosphere) due to climate change, the timing and availability of water in key amphibian reproductive habitats will likely be altered. This project will assess the future risk to amphibian populations in the Midwest, identifying present and future richness hotspots and those wetland species and populations most at risk of habitat loss due to climate change. The research team will model landscape level changes...
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The San Francisco Bay estuary contains the largest remaining expanse of tidal salt marshes in the western U.S. These marshes are home to a variety of federal and state protected species, such as the California clapper rail, California black rail, and the salt marsh harvest mouse. The estuary is also located on the Pacific Flyway, and is an important site for migrating and wintering birds. As climate conditions change, these salt marshes face a number of threats, including accelerated rates of sea-level rise, shifting precipitation, erosion, and more frequent and intense storms. Seas in the San Francisco Bay estuary have been rising 2.2 centimeters per decade, and could rise by as much as 1.24 meters by 2100, according...
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Quaking aspen populations are declining in much of the West due to altered fire regimes, competition with conifers, herbivory, drought, disease, and insect outbreaks. Aspen stands typically support higher bird biodiversity and abundance than surrounding habitat types, and maintaining current distribution and abundance of several bird species in the northern Great Basin is likely tied to the persistence of aspen in the landscape. This project examined the effects of climate change on aspen and associated bird communities by coupling empirical models of avian-habitat relationships with landscape simulations of vegetation community and disturbance dynamics under various climate change scenarios. Field data on avian...
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Marine and inland fisheries provide substantial economic, nutritional, recreational, and cultural benefits to human populations globally. Though extensive research and management efforts exist to ensure the sustainability of these important resources, many fisheries still face threats including climate change, habitat degradation, and overfishing. The inland fisheries community often cites that less attention is given to inland fisheries compared to marine but, to date, no quantitative analysis has examined these differences. Our goal is to compare investment and resources allocated to the research and management of marine and inland fisheries relative to their value at a global scale. Through the development of...
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This project built on an existing regional conservation partnership to use the most recent downscaled climate model projections to forecast the likely impacts of climate change to species and ecosystems in the Lower Mississippi Valley (LMV). The objective of this work was to develop and test ecological and biological models to facilitate regional adaptive management of wildlife resources and the forest and wetland ecosystems that support them in the LMV. The modeled projections were then used to evaluate climate change effects on high priority bird species, waterfowl, amphibians, and fisheries. In particular, the researchers sought to answer two key questions: (1) what are the impacts of predicted climate change...
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A large portion of the U.S. population lives in coastal areas along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts and the Caribbean; however, our coasts are also home to many fish, wildlife, and plant species that are important for recreation, tourism, local economies, biodiversity, and healthy coastal ecosystems. Coastal habitats also provide protective ecosystem services to human communities, which are increasingly at risk to storms and sea level rise under future climate change. Understanding how climate change will impact natural and human communities is a crucial part of decision making and management related to the protection of our coasts. In a collaborative project between the North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative...
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Indigenous Nations are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, due in part to their reliance on healthy ecosystems to provide culturally significant plants that are used for traditional foods, medicines, and materials. Further, many Indigenous communities have an under-resourced capacity for climate adaptation, resulting in significant environmental justice impacts that range from health disparities to heightened disaster risks. There is growing recognition across the globe of the important role of traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) in climate change resilience and the innovative solutions that lie at the intersection of Indigenous and western knowledge. However, Indigenous knowledge has...
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Prairie ecosystems and the grassland birds that rely on them for habitat may be particularly vulnerable to rapid changes in climate. Extensive portions of prairie have already been lost due to agriculture and urbanization, and as a result grassland birds have declined more than any other bird group in the last four decades. Now, climate change could exacerbate existing threats to these birds as temperatures in certain prairie ecosystems are expected to rise and extreme weather events, such as drought, could become more common. The goal of this project was to develop a framework to identify demographic sensitivities and assess the vulnerability of grassland bird species to future climate change. To do so, the researchers...
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Climate change will have sweeping impacts across the Northeast, yet there are key gaps in our understanding about whether species will be able to adapt to this changing environment. Results from this project will illuminate local and region-wide changes in forest ecosystems by studying the red-backed salamander, a species that is a strong indicator of forest conditions. This study identified habitat and forest characteristics that improve the resiliency of forest dwelling amphibians and other wildlife to climate change. Further, by studying a foundational species in forest floor ecosystems, the scientists can use the information to make inferences about rare and declining species. The researchers studied multiple...
map background search result map search result map Fate of Endangered Species in San Francisco Bay Tidal Marshes with Sea-Level Rise Quantifying Vulnerability of Quaking Aspen Woodlands and Associated Bird Communities to Global Climate Change in the Northern Great Basin Development of the Geo Data Portal to Make Climate Projections and Scientific Data More Accessible to Users Projected Climate Change Impacts on Stream Dwelling Smallmouth Bass Populations in the U.S. (Local Assessment) Climate Change and Federal Land Management: Assessing Priorities Using a Social Network Approach Forecasting the Effects of Land-Use and Climate Change on Wildlife Communities and Habitats in the Lower Mississippi Valley Assessing the Vulnerability of Grassland Bird Populations to Climate Change SERAP: Modeling of Hydrologic Systems Understanding the Future of Red-Backed Salamanders as an Indicator of Future Forest Health A Value and Investment Assessment of Marine and Inland Fisheries Globally to Inform Future Resource Management Strategies Identifying Critical Thresholds and Tipping Points for Priority Coastal Species in a Changing Future Mapping Climate Change Resistant Vernal Pools in the Northeastern U.S. Crown of the Continent Landscape Conservation Design Understanding Brook Trout Persistence in Warming Streams Informing Climate-Adaptive Forest Management for Breeding Bird Habitat in the Southern Appalachians The Effects of Climate Variability and Change on Human-Bear Interactions in North America Mapping Effects of Wetland Change on Amphibians in the Upper Midwest Prioritizing Sites for Habitat Restoration to Enhance Connectivity in the Upper Midwest Indigenous-led Restoration and Stewardship of Culturally Significant Plants for Climate Change Adaptation in the Northeast Landslide Data for the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) Fate of Endangered Species in San Francisco Bay Tidal Marshes with Sea-Level Rise Quantifying Vulnerability of Quaking Aspen Woodlands and Associated Bird Communities to Global Climate Change in the Northern Great Basin Understanding Brook Trout Persistence in Warming Streams Informing Climate-Adaptive Forest Management for Breeding Bird Habitat in the Southern Appalachians SERAP: Modeling of Hydrologic Systems Crown of the Continent Landscape Conservation Design Forecasting the Effects of Land-Use and Climate Change on Wildlife Communities and Habitats in the Lower Mississippi Valley Prioritizing Sites for Habitat Restoration to Enhance Connectivity in the Upper Midwest Projected Climate Change Impacts on Stream Dwelling Smallmouth Bass Populations in the U.S. (Local Assessment) Mapping Effects of Wetland Change on Amphibians in the Upper Midwest Landslide Data for the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) Mapping Climate Change Resistant Vernal Pools in the Northeastern U.S. Indigenous-led Restoration and Stewardship of Culturally Significant Plants for Climate Change Adaptation in the Northeast Understanding the Future of Red-Backed Salamanders as an Indicator of Future Forest Health Climate Change and Federal Land Management: Assessing Priorities Using a Social Network Approach Identifying Critical Thresholds and Tipping Points for Priority Coastal Species in a Changing Future Assessing the Vulnerability of Grassland Bird Populations to Climate Change Development of the Geo Data Portal to Make Climate Projections and Scientific Data More Accessible to Users The Effects of Climate Variability and Change on Human-Bear Interactions in North America A Value and Investment Assessment of Marine and Inland Fisheries Globally to Inform Future Resource Management Strategies