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Abstract (from ELSEVIER) Population persistence probability is valuable for characterizing risk to species and informing listing and conservation decisions but is challenging to estimate through traditional methods for rare, data-limited species. Modeling approaches have used citizen science data to mitigate data limitations of focal species and better estimate parameters such as occupancy and detection, but their use to estimate persistence and inform conservation decisions is limited. We developed an approach to estimate persistence using only occurrence records of the target species and citizen science occurrence data of non-target species to account for search effort and imperfect detection. We applied the...
Coastal ecosystems in the Eastern U.S. have been severely altered by processes associated with human development, including drainage of wetlands, changes in hydrology, land clearing, agricultural and forestry activity, and the construction of structures that "harden" the coast. Sea-level rise and the changing frequency of extreme events associated with climate change are now further degrading the capacity of those ecological and social systems to remain resilient. As custodians of ecological goods and services valued by society, coastal National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) have an especially important role to play in helping socio-ecological systems adapt to global-change processes. To help refuges address this challenge,...
Abstract (from ScienceDirect): Climate change poses great challenges for cultural resource management, particularly in coastal areas. Cultural resources, such as historic buildings, in coastal areas are vulnerable to climate impacts including inundation, deterioration, and destruction from sea-level rise and storm-related flooding and erosion. However, research that assesses the trade-offs between actions for protecting vulnerable and valuable cultural resources under budgetary constraints is limited. This study focused on developing a decision support model for managing historic buildings at Cape Lookout National Seashore. We designed the Optimal Preservation Decision Support (OptiPres) model to: (a) identify optimal,...
Suppose you are a city planner, regional water manager, or wildlife conservation specialist who is asked to include the potential impacts of climate variability and change in your risk management and planning efforts. What climate information would you use? The choice is often regional or local climate projections downscaled from global climate models (GCMs; also known as general circulation models) to include detail at spatial and temporal scales that align with those of the decision problem. A few years ago this information was hard to come by. Now there is Web-based access to a proliferation of high-resolution climate projections derived with differing downscaling methods.
Longleaf pine (LLP, Pinus palustris) has been reduced to 3–5% of its original range, but may be particularly resilient to conditions associated with climate change including drought, severe storms, and increased prevalence of pests. Despite the critical role of LLP in building climate resilient ecosystems, little is known about how landscape managers in the region have considered climate change in planning efforts. We gathered 83 publicly accessible natural resource management plans from the southeastern United States that included management of LLP ecosystems between 1999 and 2016. We used document analysis to identify how plans addressed climate change threats on LLP, considered climate change in identification...
The frequency and intensity of hurricanes are increasing globally, and anthropogenic modifications in cities have created systems that may be particularly vulnerable to their negative effects. Organisms living in cities are exposed to variable levels of chronic environmental stress. However, whether chronic stress ameliorates or exacerbates the negative effects of hurricanes remains an open question. Here, we consider two hypotheses about the simultaneous consequences of acute disturbances from hurricanes and chronic stress from urbanization for the structure of urban arthropod communities. The tipping point hypothesis posits that organisms living in high stress habitats are less resilient than those in low stress...
Introduction (from ncsc.edu): The southeastern United States is experiencing high rates of population growth, urbanization, land use change, and rapidly shifting climatic conditions. Collectively, these changes present considerable near and long-term challenges to the health and sustainability of the region’s fish and wildlife populations. Employing a collaborative, forward-looking conservation approach represents a key step towards addressing these challenges and was the impetus for the establishment of the Southeast Conservation Adaptation Strategy (SECAS). SECAS consists of diverse state, federal, non-profit, and private organizations, working together to identify and coordinate shared conservation goals and...
Abstract (from PeerJ): Urban trees serve a critical conservation function by supporting arthropod and vertebrate communities but are often subject to arthropod pest infestations. Native trees are thought to support richer arthropod communities than exotic trees but may also be more susceptible to herbivorous pests. Exotic trees may be less susceptible to herbivores but provide less conservation value as a consequence. We tested the hypotheses that native species in Acer and Quercus would have more herbivorous pests than exotic congeners and different communities of arthropod natural enemies. The density of scale insects, common urban tree pests, was greatest on a native Acer and a native Quercus than exotic congeners...
Abstract (from EfD): This study develops an integrated framework to evaluate the relative effectiveness of alternative land use policies that target the management of natural resources in the face of climate change pressures. This framework is then applied to evaluate the relative performance of three different land use regulations that protect natural resources and alter current trends of urbanization using data from three rapidly urbanizing coastal counties in the southeastern United States facing growing risks of​ flooding. The framework developed in this study is an iterative procedure that integrates a spatially explicit econometric model of land use change, local ecosystem service delivery, and feedback mechanisms...
This project provided broader training for graduate students, university faculty and staff, and some partners on how decision analysis can be used to support natural and cultural resource management decisions. NC State graduate students and SE CSC staff were supported for travel to engage with natural resource managers on on-the-ground adaptation issues. Broader training in science communication was developed for students, staff, and CSC leadership. Graduate students and staff were supported for science communication training, and three regional CSCs were engaged to develop center communication plans.
Abstract (from ScienceDirect): Today, cultural heritage planning and decision-making operate under considerable climate, political, and financial uncertainties and constraints. Consequently, decision-makers are often left making value-laden judgments of what to preserve, restore, and maintain in their best judgments, which can leave them open to criticism for not protecting the cultural resources most important to various and diverse stakeholder groups. Thus, a transparent and robust process to optimally maintain cultural heritage values for present and future generations is needed. We address this knowledge gap by developing a novel, transparent, and value-based measurement framework for assessing relative “historical...
Abstract (from British Ecological Society): Near the tropical‐temperate transition zone, warming winter temperatures are expected to facilitate the poleward range expansion of freeze‐sensitive tropical organisms. In coastal wetlands of eastern and central North America, freeze‐sensitive woody plants (mangroves) are expected to expand northward into regions currently dominated by freeze‐tolerant herbaceous salt marsh plants. To advance understanding of mangrove range expansion, there is a need to refine temperature thresholds for mangrove freeze damage, mortality, and recovery. We integrated data from 38 sites spread across the mangrove range edge in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coasts of North America, including...
The gopher tortoise is a familiar turtle species across the southeastern Coastal Plain, but its population has declined significantly over several decades. A principal reason is that much of its primary habitat – sparse, open stands of mature pine – has been replaced by development or agriculture, or has become degraded through the suppression of low‐intensity, forage‐producing ground fires. The gopher tortoise is a “keystone” species, meaning that its disappearance from the landscape would negatively impact many other species that make use of its underground burrows. Out of concern over its decline and its important role in the ecosystem, the gopher tortoise is being considered for listing under the federal...
Extreme events such as heat waves, cold spells, floods, droughts, tropical cyclones, and tornadoes have potentially devastating impacts on natural and engineered systems and human communities worldwide. Stakeholder decisions about critical infrastructures, natural resources, emergency preparedness and humanitarian aid typically need to be made at local to regional scales over seasonal to decadal planning horizons. However, credible climate change attribution and reliable projections at more localized and shorter time scales remain grand challenges. Long-standing gaps include inadequate understanding of processes such as cloud physics and ocean–land–atmosphere interactions, limitations of physics-based computer models,...
Abstract (from http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0102261): The future health of ecosystems is arguably as dependent on urban sprawl as it is on human-caused climatic warming. Urban sprawl strongly impacts the urban ecosystems it creates and the natural and agro-ecosystems that it displaces and fragments. Here, we project urban sprawl changes for the next 50 years for the fast-growing Southeast U.S. Previous studies have focused on modeling population density, but the urban extent is arguably as important as population density per se in terms of its ecological and conservation impacts. We develop simulations using the SLEUTH urban growth model that complement population-driven models...