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The eulachon is a small fish that is both highly nutritious and culturally significant to the Chilkat and Chilkoot peoples of the Tlingit Nation in Southeast Alaska, for whom it is a traditional food. Tribal members are increasingly concerned about how climate change might stress the health and abundance of eulachon populations, which are already perceived as being low. In order to successfully manage these fisheries in light of climate change, tribal communities need information about how euchalon are vulnerable and which management strategies will help the species adapt. For this project, researchers used climate projections, monitoring data, and traditional ecological knowledge to assess the climate change vulnerability...
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Many fish species, including mountain whitefish and bull trout, need a variety of habitat types throughout their different life stages that include appropriate water temperatures, flows, refugia from predators, and adequate food. Key to a fish finding and using these different habitats is the connectivity between them. Changing conditions in the future, including increased air and water temperatures, are expected to impact many fish populations, as well as the rivers, streams, and habitats where they’re found. This project, jointly funded by the Great Northern Landscape Conservation Cooperative, focused on the Methow River Basin in the arid east-central part of Washington State. The project team used data on fish...
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The project aimed to use existing models and data to understand how wildfires (number, size, and location) and land-use change will affect watersheds, and therefore water supply, under current conditions and future climates (through 2050) in the western U.S. The projected changes in temperature and precipitation are expected to affect water supply in two major ways: 1) decreased water availability, and 2) increased risk to watersheds via loses from fire. As the western population is projected to grow by 310 million people by 2100, this will potentially increase demand for diminishing supplies if housing growth occurs in rangelands or forested lands. Understanding watershed vulnerabilities due to changing climate,...
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The purpose of this project was to (1) provide an internally-­consistent set of downscaled projections across the western U.S., (2) include information about projection uncertainty, and (3) assess projected changes of hydrologic extremes. These objectives were designed to address decision support needs for climate adaptation and resource management actions. Specifically, understanding of uncertainty in climate projections - in particular for extreme events - is currently a key scientific and management barrier to adaptation planning and vulnerability assessment. The new dataset fills in the Northwest domain to cover a key gap in the previous dataset, adds additional projections (both from other global climate models...
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The Columbia River Basin and the plants and animals it supports have been central to tribal culture and economy in the Pacific Northwest (Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Nevada, Montana, and British Columbia) for thousands of years. Climate change is expected to significantly alter the ecology of the Columbia River Basin, and tribal communities will be especially sensitive to these changes, including possible loss of culturally and economically significant foods such as salmon, deer, root plants, and berries. The purpose of this project was to assess the capacity of tribal communities and organizations in the Columbia River Basin to prepare for and respond to climate change. Researchers surveyed 15 tribes and three...
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Whitebark pine is a high-elevation, important tree species that provides critical habitat for wildlife and supplies valued ecosystem services. These trees currently face multiple threats, including attack by the mountain pine beetle, which has recently killed whitebark pines over much of the western U.S. Climate is an important factor in these outbreaks, and future warming is expected to affect epidemics. Our project developed statistical models of outbreaks in whitebark pine for three regions: the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, the Northern U.S. Rocky Mountains, and the Cascade Range. We used these models to understand climate/beetle outbreak relationships, evaluate climatic causes of recent outbreaks, and estimate...
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Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) is a candidate for listing under the Endangered Species Act because of population and habitat fragmentation combined with inadequate regulatory mechanisms to control development in critical areas. In addition to the current threats to habitat, each 1 degree celsius increase in temperature due to climate change is expected to result in an additional 87,000 km2 of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) that will be converted to unsuitable habitat for sage-grouse. Thus, the future distribution and composition of sagebrush landscapes is likely to differ greatly from today’s configuration. We conducted a large, multi-objective project to identify: (1) characteristics of habitats required...
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The objective of this study was to determine why certain stream insects tend to be found in certain temperature ranges. Many federal, state and local agencies use stream insects to monitor the health of freshwater ecosystems. While the temperature ranges for some insects are often inferred from the temperature of the waters where they were collected, this inference is coarse at best and problematic at worst. Stream temperatures fluctuate a lot during the year and temperature may or may not control where an insect lives. Field insects were collected and sent to a laboratory for testing several temperature endpoints, particularly at higher temperatures. Respiration, breathing rate, and some physical activities were...
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Climate change has been implicated in the range shifts and population declines of many species, but the confounding of climate change with other variables, particularly landscape change, hampers inference about causation. Climate envelope models have been used to predict population trends and future distributions, but the reliability of such predictions remains relatively unknown; without tests of model accuracy, policy development will be based on highly uncertain ground. Our team assembled recent developments in change detection mapping and species modeling. Specifically, our objectives were to: (1) use 32-year data on bird distributions to test the reliability of climate envelope models, (2) test whether changes...
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This project supported a climate assessment workshop for the Northwest region. The workshop brought together regional stakeholders interested in understanding regional climate impacts and identifying strategies for adapting resources to changing conditions. The workshop also initiated a process of participatory activities and communication about the climate assessment, which helped contribute to the broader National Climate Assessment (NCA). By discussing adaptive management solutions with regional stakeholders, the workshop provided regional case study results to the NCA, such as information on local lessons and best practices. Specific workshop objectives included (1) convening and launching a process for coordinating...
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The Klamath Basin in Oregon and California is home to a rich abundance of natural and cultural resources, many of which are vulnerable to present and future climate change. Climate change also threatens traditional ways of life for tribal communities, who have deep connections to the region. This project sought to increase the effectiveness of regional climate change adaptation and planning by (1) developing ways to integrate traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) with western science in decision making, (2) building partnerships between tribal, academic, and government institutions, and (3) increasing future capacity to respond to climate change by engaging tribal youth. Through this project, the Quartz Valley...
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Tribes in the Pacific Northwest rely on plants for food, medicine, and material for culturally important items (e.g., baskets, cages and traps, ceremonial items, tools, and musical instruments). Elders and wisdomkeepers from tribes of the Point No Point Treaty Council have expressed deep concerns about the potential effects of climate change on plant species of key cultural significance, particularly those located in tribal gathering areas on the Olympic Peninsula, Washington. This project was a direct response to tribal concerns about the loss of culturally significant plants from tribal gathering areas. Researchers conducted interviews with elders from the Port Gamble S’Klallam Tribe to identify eight plants...
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This project identified priority areas in the Columbia Plateau Ecoregion to focus on for riverine and riparian habitat conservation. The project’s products are tailored towards the Arid Lands Initiative (ALI) conservation goals and objectives and provide the foundation for adaptation to a changing climate. We adopted a “zoned” approach to identifying focal areas, connectivity management zones, and zones for riparian habitat and ecological representation. Through a series of workshops and webinars, the ALI identified freshwater species for targeted conservation, including Pacific lamprey, bull trout, redband trout, riparian birds and waterfowl, and beavers. The methods to spatially identify a conservation design...
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Wetlands provide critical services to natural and human communities alike, forming important wildlife habitat, storing and filtering water, sequestering carbon, and offering opportunities for recreation. Unfortunately, not only are these valuable ecosystems understudied compared to others, but they are also among the most sensitive to climate change. Climate change threatens wetlands by altering temperature and precipitation, which cause changes in water level and water temperature. Due to this threat, the international community and domestic agencies alike have highlighted the need to better understand wetlands in the face of climate change, from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, to the Ramsar Convention,...
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Salmonids, a group of coldwater adapted fishes of enormous ecological and socio-economic value, historically inhabited a variety of freshwater habitats throughout the Pacific Northwest (PNW). Over the past century, however, populations have dramatically declined due to habitat loss, overharvest, and invasive species. Consequently, many populations are listed as threatened or endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Complicating these stressors is global warming and associated climate change. Overall, aquatic ecosystems across the PNW are predicted to experience increasingly earlier snowmelt in the spring, reduced late spring and summer flows, increased winter flooding, warmer and drier summers, increased...
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Climate responses of sagebrush are needed to inform land managers of the stability and restoration of sagebrush ecosystems, which are an important but threatened habitat type. We evaluated climate responses of sagebrush using two approaches: (1) experimental manipulations of temperature and precipitation for natural plants in the field, and (2) assessment of how climate adaptation and weather have affected sagebrush seeding efforts on nearly 25 large-scale sagebrush seeding projects done over the past several decades. Experimental warming increased growth of sagebrush in high-elevation meadows in the Teton Mountains, but had marginal or no effect at lower elevations sites (near Twin Falls and Boise, Idaho, respectively)....
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Wild berries are a valued traditional food for tribes of the Chugachmiut Tribal Consortium (Chenega Bay, Eyak, Nanwalek, Port Graham, Qutekcak, Tatitlek, and Valdez) in the rural Chugach region of south-central Alaska. Berries supply essential nutrients that prevent heart disease and cancer, are used for medicinal purposes, and are the only sweet food in the traditional Native diet. Hence, berries have both nutritional and cultural significance. From 2008 to 2012, wild berry populations in the Chugach region were decimated by an unexpected outbreak of moths, thought to have been brought about by shifting climate (i.e., warmer temperatures allowed a greater number of moths to survive the winter). This outbreak...
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Enhancing ecological connectivity - the degree to which landscapes facilitate the movement of the organisms within them - is a frequently recommended strategy for conserving wildlife populations into the future. This is because a primary way in which species respond to climate change is by adjusting their geographic ranges to find more suitable temperatures and adequate food supplies. It is also because connectivity facilitates many other important ecological and evolutionary processes within species' ranges, further promoting resilience and healthy populations. However, widespread fragmentation of landscapes by human activities presents a serious obstacle to these processes, which may contribute to a decline in...
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Glaciers are a central component to the hydrology of many areas in Alaska and the Pacific Northwest. Glacier melt plays a crucial role in the movement of nutrients through a landscape and into the ocean, and the flow of water into streams that sustain many species. As air temperatures rise, increased rates of glacier melt may have significant impacts to the hydrology and ecology in these areas. This project aims to broaden our understanding of the role of glaciers in the hydrology of Alaska and Washington state and incorporate this knowledge into two types of models that simulate past and future scenarios of water flow. The project team aims to develop a public web portal to allow users to explore content, access...
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Tribal communities have spiritually rich and complex connections with the natural environment, and their traditions, identities, and economies rely heavily on local natural resources. Because of this intimate connection with nature, tribes are especially vulnerable to climate changes that disrupt their surroundings. Surprisingly, however, few studies have delved deeply into Native thinking around climate change and its cultural impacts. This project sought to understand the ways in which Native American culture and cultural practices in the northwestern U.S. have been affected by climate change. Researchers conducted in-depth interviews with tribal elders and cultural experts belonging to three Northwest tribes...
map background search result map search result map Quantifying the Effects of Climate Change on Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreaks and Subsequent Threats to Whitebark Pine Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Wetlands in the Pacific Northwest Predicting Climate Change Impacts on River Ecosystems and Salmonids across the Pacific Northwest Sagebrush Ecosystems in a Changing Climate Understanding Future Extreme Water Events in the Pacific Northwest and Related Uncertainties to Inform Assessments of Vulnerability Identification and Laboratory Validation of Temperature Tolerance for Macroinvertebrates: Developing Vulnerability Prediction Tools Climate Change Threats to Fish Habitat Connectivity Contribution of Landscape Characteristics and Vegetation Shifts from Global Climate Change to Long-Term Viability of Greater Sage-grouse Disentangling the Effects of Climate and Landscape Change on Bird Population Trends in the Western U.S. and Canada Stakeholder Engagement to Coordinate a Regional Assessment of Climate Vulnerability of Culturally Significant Plants on the Olympic Peninsula Mapping Wild Berries in the Chugach Region of Alaska to Inform Restoration of Traditional Foods Building Collaboration in the Klamath Basin Through Tribal Youth Internships Identifying Climate Vulnerabilities and Prioritizing Adaptation Strategies for Eulachon Populations in Southeast Alaska Assessing the Cultural Effects of Climate Change on Northwest Tribes Creating Practitioner‐Driven, Science‐Based Plans for Connectivity Conservation in the Washington-British Columbia Transboundary Region Changes to Watershed Vulnerability under Future Climates, Fire Regimes, and Population Pressures Assessing the Capacity of Columbia River Basin Tribes to Address Climate Change Spatial Conservation Priorities for Riverine and Riparian Systems in the Columbia Plateau Ecoregion Understanding the Impacts of Glaciers on Streamflow in Alaska and Washington Identifying Climate Vulnerabilities and Prioritizing Adaptation Strategies for Eulachon Populations in Southeast Alaska Mapping Wild Berries in the Chugach Region of Alaska to Inform Restoration of Traditional Foods Vulnerability of Culturally Significant Plants on the Olympic Peninsula Building Collaboration in the Klamath Basin Through Tribal Youth Internships Sagebrush Ecosystems in a Changing Climate Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Wetlands in the Pacific Northwest Climate Change Threats to Fish Habitat Connectivity Creating Practitioner‐Driven, Science‐Based Plans for Connectivity Conservation in the Washington-British Columbia Transboundary Region Stakeholder Engagement to Coordinate a Regional Assessment of Climate Spatial Conservation Priorities for Riverine and Riparian Systems in the Columbia Plateau Ecoregion Assessing the Capacity of Columbia River Basin Tribes to Address Climate Change Quantifying the Effects of Climate Change on Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreaks and Subsequent Threats to Whitebark Pine Assessing the Cultural Effects of Climate Change on Northwest Tribes Predicting Climate Change Impacts on River Ecosystems and Salmonids across the Pacific Northwest Disentangling the Effects of Climate and Landscape Change on Bird Population Trends in the Western U.S. and Canada Contribution of Landscape Characteristics and Vegetation Shifts from Global Climate Change to Long-Term Viability of Greater Sage-grouse Identification and Laboratory Validation of Temperature Tolerance for Macroinvertebrates: Developing Vulnerability Prediction Tools Changes to Watershed Vulnerability under Future Climates, Fire Regimes, and Population Pressures Understanding Future Extreme Water Events in the Pacific Northwest and Related Uncertainties to Inform Assessments of Vulnerability Understanding the Impacts of Glaciers on Streamflow in Alaska and Washington