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Elodea spp. (Elodea) is Alaska’s first known invasive aquatic plant, first discovered in urban lakes in 2010. The combination of human pathways and climate change related shifts in seasonality and temperature have resulted in Elodea’s range expansion into Alaska’s freshwater resources. Elodea transmission often occurs when plant fragments get entangled in seaplane rudders and are carried to remote waterbodies where they quickly establish dense plant growth. This growth inhibits seaplane access and drastically alters aquatic ecosystems. Recent research showed that Elodea can have significant negative impacts on parks, subsistence, aviation‐related recreation, and Alaska’s salmon fisheries. For example, the economic...
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Suicide Basin is a glacier-fed lake that branches off Mendenhall Glacier in Juneau, Alaska. Since 2011, Suicide Basin has been collecting melt- and rainwater each summer, creating a temporary glacier-dammed lake. Water that accumulates typically gets released through channels that run beneath the glacier. These channels are normally blocked by ice, but if the water pressure gets too high the channel breaks open, rapidly draining the basin in what is known as an “outburst flood”. In past years, these events have led to flooding along Mendenhall Lake and Mendenhall River in the most heavily populated neighborhood of Juneau. Because of the threats posed to infrastructure in the Mendenhall Valley, it is critical that...
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The fast pace of change in coastal zones, the trillions of dollars of investment in human communities in coastal areas, and the myriad of ecosystem services natural coastal environments provide makes managing climate-related risks along coasts a massive challenge for all of the U.S. coastal states and territories. Answering questions about both the costs and the benefits of alternative adaptation strategies in the near term is critical to taxpayers, decision-makers, and to the biodiversity of the planet. There is significant public and private interest in using ecosystem based adaptation approaches to conserve critical significant ecosystems in coastal watersheds, estuaries and intertidal zones and to protect man-made...
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Salmon are an important resource to the ecosystems, economy, and culture of the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska. However, salmon are under increasing stress due to warming water temperatures and decreasing stream flow. Groundwater is a major contributor to many streams that can help maintain fish habitat during low flows and contributes cooler water that regulates stream temperatures in the warm summer months. As the climate warms, the ability for groundwater to cool stream temperatures will likely become more critical to streams that are used by salmon, such as Beaver Creek near Kenai, Alaska. Preliminary analysis of historical streamflow data indicates that on average, Beaver Creek receives nearly 80% of its flow...
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Salmon that spawn and rear in Southeast Alaska watersheds are critically important to the region’s economic vitality and cultural identity. An estimated 90% of rural households in Southeast Alaska use salmon. Environmental changes that compromise the ability of these streams to support salmon could have dramatic consequences for the region. In particular, there is concern that climate change could undermine the capacity of the region’s streams to support productive fisheries. As a result, regional stakeholders are interested in identifying some of the potential impacts of climate change on watersheds that support abundant salmon. These stakeholders include federal and state agencies (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service,...
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The thawing of ice-rich soils in permafrost landscapes, a process known as thermokarst, can result in profound impacts on the energy and water balance, carbon fluxes, wildlife habitat, and existing infrastructure in the local area. The Alaska Thermokarst Model is a “state-and-transition" model being developed to simulate landscape evolution in polygonal tundra landscapes commonly found on the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska. This study will focus on the second step of the landscape evolution process – initiation of the thermokarst process through the concept of “climate priming” of the landscape. “Climate priming” occurs when there is high early and total winter snow precipitation, above normal winter temperatures,...
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The Situk River is among the most productive resource in Alaska, with nine native fish species and 10 times the density of juvenile coho salmon than any other Southeast Alaskan watershed. The associated fisheries in the Situk River and its adjoining estuary drive a $2 million economy for the community of Yakutat (population 600), with 89 percent of the households harvesting salmon for subsistence purposes. The Yakutat foreland area that encompasses the Situk River watershed is a vast landscape of low gradient drainages with forested mosaics of side channels and pools that are responsible for up to 80 percent of coho salmon production. These highly productive aquatic habitats are sensitive to even small shifts in...
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Retreating glaciers are an iconic image of climate change;yet not all glaciers in Alaska are actively retreating, and a few glaciers are even advancing. While this contrasting behavior can be misleading for the casual observer, variable responses between glaciers in a changing climate are expected. Glaciers act as conveyor belts that transport snow and ice from high elevations, where it does not melt, down to low elevations, where it does melt. A change in climate can impact the amount of snow and ice that accumulates (accumulation), the way snow and ice melt (ablation), or the conveyor belt (ice dynamics). While these impacts vary with elevation and glacier shape, glacier changes have major implications for downstream...
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Major floods in Southeast Alaska and Hawaiʻi that potentially threaten life, property, and culturally significant resources and ecosystems are caused by mechanisms related to intense precipitation for both locations as well as snow melt-based processes for Alaska. Small, high-gradient, and heavily vegetated watersheds with direct contribution to the ocean are common in both locations. To understand how climate change may affect flooding in these regions, an analysis of the underlying mechanisms that cause flooding is needed. The scope of this study includes an analysis of annual peak-streamflow records from long-term streamgages in Southeast Alaska and Hawaiʻi to determine whether the main flood-producing mechanisms...
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Stream discharge and temperature patterns are being altered by climate change, but documenting these changes on the community level is challenging without community partners trained in suitable data collection techniques. The USGS Juneau Field Office is collaborating with the Yakutat Tlingit Tribe (YTT), the Southeast Alaska Tribal Ocean Research (SEATOR) network, and the Southeast Alaska Watershed Coalition (SAWC) to integrate stream discharge and stream temperature monitoring into ongoing Tribal-led climate adaptation, water quality, and species management projects. Stream discharge and temperature data is limited in Southeast Alaska and improving the spatial coverage of this data would be mutually beneficial...
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Areas along the Arctic coast are changing the fastest among all of Earth’s habitats due to climate change. The Arctic coast is a fragile ecosystem that provides habitat for migratory birds, endangered species, and species critical for local subsistence living. In this area, permafrost is thawing rapidly, changing how much and when water reaches rivers, ponds, lakes, wetlands and groundwater. In addition, there is also a growing interest in oil and gas resource exploration. With ongoing permafrost thaw, future warming, and interests in oil and gas extraction in the coastal plain (also known as the 1002 area) of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, it is urgent to improve the understanding of this area and its vulnerability...
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In the Gulf of Alaska, streams will experience more dramatic low water events, interspersed with larger and potentially more frequent high flow events in the coming decades. Reduced stream flows are likely to occur due to diminished snowpack and seasonal droughts, while higher flow events are likely to occur with more frequent storms and rain-on-snow events. These changes are likely to influence the growth trajectories of juvenile salmon, such as coho salmon and chinook salmon, that live up to two years in freshwater before migrating to the ocean. Stream flows can influence juvenile salmon growth by modifying food availability, water clarity, temperature, and predation risk. This high-resolution study examines...
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Water temperature plays a large role in freshwater ecosystems in the Arctic and sub-Arctic. It affects the physical and biological features of rivers, like how the water interacts with the landscape and the life cycles of organisms that live in the river. For example, unseasonably warm water temperatures in Alaska’s large rivers in 2019 caused large numbers of salmon to die before they could reach their spawning grounds. Though water temperature data is important for natural resources monitoring programs, these data are historically lacking and hard to collect for large river systems. Satellites and other remote sensing techniques can offer valuable insight to Alaskan stream conditions. They can measure thermal...
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Climate adaptation planning provides a framework for Tribes to exercise sovereignty over wild resources important for the subsistence way of life and economic and cultural activities that are being impacted by climate change. The climate adaptation planning process includes identifying key resources that are currently being impacted by climate change, or that may be impacted in the future, as well as identifying practical and strategic steps that can be taken to mitigate or adapt to the changing circumstances. Through a partnership among the Ketchikan Indian Community, the Metlakatla Indian Community, OceansAlaska, and the University of Alaska Fairbanks this project will support Tribal- and Alaska Native-led...
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Winter snowpack provides critical water resources for human populations and ecosystems throughout western North America. Increasing temperature and changing precipitation patterns are expected to alter the extent, amount, and persistence of snow in this region. Observations of snowpack and related hydroclimate variables are limited and sparse. This project will capitalize on recent advances in water balance and snow modeling as well as the development of comprehensive North American tree-ring datasets to produce spatially specific, annually resolved, and management relevant reconstructions of snow, streamflow, and warm season temperature. The project researchers will focus specifically on spatiotemporal reconstructions...
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Marine shellfish are an important diet and cultural resource for many Alaskans. Harmful algal blooms can produce toxins which accumulate in shellfish and can cause disease and death in consumers. Climate change is predicted to expand the timing and strength of harmful algal blooms which may affect food security for many Alaska Native Tribes and communities. Predicting when the shellfish are safe to consume is a critical component of establishing food security and adapting to climate change. Local traditional knowledge from Tlingit elders indicates that herring spawning events, which typically occur in April or May in Southeast Alaska, provide a warning signal for when to stop harvesting shellfish. The environmental...
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Alaska is an ecologically, commercially, and recreationally diverse state, providing value to people and terrestrial and aquatic species alike. Presently, Alaska is experiencing climatic change faster than any other area of the United States, but across the state, comprehensive environmental monitoring is logistically difficult and expensive. For instance, only about 1% of U.S Geological Survey (USGS) stream gages are in Alaska, and only about 50% of those gages measure water temperature, an important climate change indicator. In this study, predictive models are being used to map stream temperatures under current and future climate scenarios across the Yukon and Kuskokwim River basins (YKRB) at the stream reach...
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Understanding freshwater flow is frequently highlighted as a priority in land management planning and assessments. Changes in climate can impact streamflow through reduced snowpack and snowfall, earlier spring runoff, increased winter flow and flooding, and decreased summer flow. In Southeast Alaska, streamflow is expected to shift dramatically in response to changes in factors such as precipitation and air temperature. Understanding how streamflow might change is instrumental not only for predicting changes in plant distribution and soil moisture, but also for infrastructure planning. Culvert replacement, bridge design, hydropower development, water reservoir placement, and floodplain restoration planning all require...
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Assessments that incorporate areas from land-to-ocean, or “ridge-to-reef", are critical to examine how land-use practices are altering stream discharge and nearshore marine health and productivity. Stream systems in both Alaska and Hawaiʻi are expected to experience changes in water quality associated with changing environmental conditions and increased human-use. Watershed systems throughout the Hawaiian Islands are currently experiencing impacts from climate change that affect groundwater recharge and surface runoff, erosion, and total streamflow, and cause degradation of nearshore marine habitats. This study can provide useful insight for both Alaska and Hawaiʻi by providing resources on how patterns in stream...
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Ongoing climate change is impacting areas of snow and ice in high latitudes and high elevation areas and is thus anticipated to change the frequency and magnitude of snow and ice related hazards. In Alaska, snow avalanches are the deadliest natural hazard, and they affect a large portion of the state, significantly impacting the natural landscape, the built environment, and public safety. As climate warming continues, it is expected that Alaska’s vulnerability to avalanche hazards will also continue to increase. Currently, there is limited public awareness and available information to support adaptation, mitigation and preparedness efforts for these hazards. The goal of this project is to improve understanding...
map background search result map search result map Improving Forecasts of Glacier Outburst Flood Events Projecting Future Streamflow in Southeast Alaska Water Resource Relevant Hydroclimatic Reconstructions for Western North America The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on River Food Webs and Salmon Productivity in Southeast Alaska Evaluating Ecosystem-Based Adaptation Options for Coastal Resilience Assessing the Vulnerability of Alaska’s Glaciers in a Changing Climate Combining Local Traditional Knowledge and Machine Learning to Predict the Future Safety of Alaskan Shellfish Harvests in a Changing Climate Detecting and Predicting Aquatic Invasive Species Transmission Via Seaplanes in Alaska Future Changes in Snow Avalanches in Southern Alaska Assessment of Critical Landscape Conditions and Potential Change in the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to Support Habitat Management Decision Making The Influence of Stream Flow Patterns on Juvenile Salmon Growth in Southeast Alaska Climate Vulnerability of Aquatic Species to Changing Stream Temperatures and Wildfire Across the Yukon and Kuskokwim River Basins, Alaska Coral Response to Land-to-Ocean Freshwater Flux: A Ridge-to-Reef Perspective Characterization of Flood-Producing Mechanisms in Watersheds with a High-Elevation Area in Southeast Alaska and Hawaiʻi Identification of Regions in Alaska Susceptible to Landscape Deformation Due to “Climate Priming” of Permafrost Soils Integrating Stream Discharge and Temperature Monitoring for Tribal Partners in Southeast Alaska Groundwater Flow and Temperature Modeling to Predict Stream Temperatures in Beaver Creek, Kenai Peninsula, Alaska Compilation of Historical Water Temperature Data for Large Rivers in Alaska using the Landsat Satellite Archive Building Tribal Capacity to Adapt and Respond to Climate Change in Southern Southeast Alaska Community Engagement in a Stream-network Assessment of Salmon Thermal-habitat in the Situk River Watershed of Yakutat, Alaska Improving Forecasts of Glacier Outburst Flood Events Groundwater Flow and Temperature Modeling to Predict Stream Temperatures in Beaver Creek, Kenai Peninsula, Alaska Community Engagement in a Stream-network Assessment of Salmon Thermal-habitat in the Situk River Watershed of Yakutat, Alaska Coral Response to Land-to-Ocean Freshwater Flux: A Ridge-to-Reef Perspective Assessment of Critical Landscape Conditions and Potential Change in the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to Support Habitat Management Decision Making The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on River Food Webs and Salmon Productivity in Southeast Alaska Integrating Stream Discharge and Temperature Monitoring for Tribal Partners in Southeast Alaska Building Tribal Capacity to Adapt and Respond to Climate Change in Southern Southeast Alaska Projecting Future Streamflow in Southeast Alaska The Influence of Stream Flow Patterns on Juvenile Salmon Growth in Southeast Alaska Climate Vulnerability of Aquatic Species to Changing Stream Temperatures and Wildfire Across the Yukon and Kuskokwim River Basins, Alaska Assessing the Vulnerability of Alaska’s Glaciers in a Changing Climate Combining Local Traditional Knowledge and Machine Learning to Predict the Future Safety of Alaskan Shellfish Harvests in a Changing Climate Detecting and Predicting Aquatic Invasive Species Transmission Via Seaplanes in Alaska Future Changes in Snow Avalanches in Southern Alaska Identification of Regions in Alaska Susceptible to Landscape Deformation Due to “Climate Priming” of Permafrost Soils Compilation of Historical Water Temperature Data for Large Rivers in Alaska using the Landsat Satellite Archive Characterization of Flood-Producing Mechanisms in Watersheds with a High-Elevation Area in Southeast Alaska and Hawaiʻi Water Resource Relevant Hydroclimatic Reconstructions for Western North America Evaluating Ecosystem-Based Adaptation Options for Coastal Resilience