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The capacity of ecosystems to provide services such as carbon storage, clean water, and forest products is determined not only by variations in ecosystem properties across landscapes, but also by ecosystem dynamics over time. ForWarn is a system developed by the U.S. Forest Service to monitor vegetation change using satellite imagery for the continental United States. It provides near real-time change maps that are updated every eight days, and summaries of these data also provide long-term change maps from 2000 to the present. Based on the detection of change in vegetation productivity, the ForWarn system monitors the effects of disturbances such as wildfires, insects, diseases, drought, and other effects of weather,...
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WaSSI (Water Supply Stress Index) predicts how climate, land cover, and human population change may impact water availability and carbon sequestration at the watershed level (about the size of a county) across the lower 48 United States. WaSSI users can select and adjust temperature, precipitation, land cover, and water use factors to simulate change scenarios for any timeframe from 1961 through the year 2100. Simulation results are available as downloadable maps, graphs, and data files that users can apply to their unique information and project needs. WaSSI generates useful information for natural resource planners and managers who must make informed decisions about water supplies and related ecosystem services...
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In 2006, the Century Commission for a Sustainable Florida called for an identification of those lands and waters in the state that are critical to the conservation of Florida’s natural resources. In response, the Florida Natural Areas Inventory, University of Florida Center for Landscape Conservation Planning, and Florida Fish & Wildlife Conservation Commission collaborated to produce CLIP - the Critical Lands and Waters Identification Project. CLIP is a GIS database of statewide conservation priorities for a broad range of natural resources, including biodiversity, landscape function, surface water, groundwater, and marine resources. CLIP is now being used to inform planning decisions by the Peninsular Florida...
Meadows delineated in the Sierra Nevada wth refugial status and connectivity rankings–WellConnected (WC), ReallyWellConnected (RC), Stable. Satisfies the delivery of “Sierra Nevada Connectivity Maps” and “Sierra Nevada Meadows Map”. Maps of the Sierra Nevada Meadows designated by their connectivity classification and whether they are expected to have a climate different than historic (1910-1939). We generated maps for modern climate (1970-1999) and four future climate scenarios, broken down into 30 year intervals, in which we assumed connectivity would not change because resistance and conductance surfaces were static. Data for the map are polygon shapefiles of meadows, processed first by buffer and dissolve in...
Freshwater fishes are highly vulnerable to human-caused climate change, resulting in rapid changes in status. Because quantitative data on status and trends are unavailable for most fish species, a rapid assessment approach that incorporates expert knowledge is needed to assess current status and future vulnerability. In this study, we present a method that allows systematic evaluation of potential climate change effects on freshwater fishes, using California as an example. The method uses expert knowledge of the authors, supported by literature reviews of status and biology of the fishes, to score ten metrics for both (1) current status of each species (baseline vulnerability to extinction) and (2) likely future...
Adaptation Planning Workshop #1:We convened a two-day workshop with scientists, managers, conservation practitioners, and others to use the findings of the vulnerability assessment to inform the development of climate-smart adaptation strategies and actions to conserve priority habitats. Specifically, we used the results of the vulnerability assessment to evaluate whether existing management actions may be vulnerable to climate change, and identify opportunities to modify existing actions to reduce vulnerabilities and become more climate-smart. We then focused on identifying climate-smart conservation strategies and actions that are not currently being implemented, but should be considered in order to conserve priority...
Kristin Byrd presented how this project aids conservation of California rangelands by identifying future integrated threats of climate change and land use change, and will quantify two main co-benefits of rangeland conservation – water supply and carbon sequestration. Through a multi-stakeholder partnership, the project proponents will develop integrated climate change/land use change scenarios for the Central Valley and Chaparral and Oak Woodland eco-regions, and disseminate information about future potential threats to high priority conservation areas within the California Rangeland Conservation Coalition (CRCC) study area, which includes the foothills around the Central Valley and most of the southern Inner Coast...
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This project used species distribution modeling to assess the risk to habitat change under various climate change scenarios for rare plants. To predict the response of rare plant species to climate change, the project modeled the current distribution of the species using climate and environmental data (e.g., soils, disturbance, land-use), use these models to predict the species distribution given climate change, calculate current and future range size, calculate the amount of overlap of predicted future distribution with current distribution, and assess where barriers and protected areas are located with reference to the change in species distribution. Given the results of the distribution modeling, each species...
This insert into the February 2013 Estuary news offers snapshots of how seven CA LCC projects have been laying the foundations for lasting cooperative conservation partnerships.
Website: “Climate Change Refugia” website features a dynamic, interactive refugia map and all deliverables
A genecological approach was used to explore genetic variation for survival in Artemisia tridentata (big sagebrush). Artemisia tridentata is a widespread and foundational shrub species in western North America. This species has become extremely fragmented, to the detriment of dependent wildlife, and efforts to restore it are now a land manage-ment priority. Common- garden experiments were established at three sites with seed-lings from 55 source- populations. Populations included each of the three predominant subspecies, and cytotype variations. Survival was monitored for 5 years to assess dif-ferences in survival between gardens and populations. We found evidence of adap-tive genetic variation for survival. Survival...
On August 25, 2015 speaker Matt Germino presented on his work restoring sagebrush in the Great Basin. Shrubs are ecosystem foundation species in most of the Great Basin’s landscapes. Most of the species, including sagebrush, are poorly adapted to the changes in fire and invasive pressures that are compounded by climate change. This presentation gives an overview of challenges and opportunities regarding restoration of sagebrush and blackbrush, focusing on climate adaptation, selection of seeds and achieving seeding and planting success. Results from Great Basin LCC supported research on seed selection and planting techniques are presented.
Nearshore bathymetry is a vital link that joins offshore water depths to coastal topography. Seamless water depth information is a critical input parameter for reliable storm surge models, enables the calculation of sediment budgets and is necessary baseline data for a range of coastal management decisions. Funding from the Western Alaska LCC resulted in the purchase of field equipment capable of shallow water measurements in rural settings, allowing collection of nearshore bathymetry around western Alaska communities. The resulting vector data shape files of nearshore bathymetry for Gambell, Savoonga, Golovin, Wales, Shismaref, and Hooper Bay are available by following the link below.
This project established a permafrost monitoring network in this region, providing a baseline of permafrost thermal regimes for assessing future change at a total of 26 automated monitoring stations. Stations have collected year-round temperature data from the active layer and the permafrost starting from the summer of 2011. The strong correspondence between spatial variability in permafrost thermal regime and an existing ecotype map allowed for the development of a map of ‘permafrost thermal classes’ for the broader study region. Further, the annual temperature data was used to calibrate models of soil thermal regimes as a function of climate, providing estimates of both historic and future permafrost thermal regimes...
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Native grasslands have been reduced to a fraction of their original extent, with estimated total loss prior to the 1990s of 70% for prairie grassland (Federal Provincial and Territorial Governments of Canada 2010). Conversion of native grassland to cropland and tame hayfields or pasture has been one of the leading drivers of native grassland loss in North America. Degradation of native grasslands also continues in some areas due to changes in natural disturbance regimes such as fire suppression and intensive prolonged cattle grazing, threats from invasive non-native species, fragmentation, intensification of agriculture, and economic development associated with population growth(Federal Provincial and Territorial...
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This carbon sequestration research is part of a new pilot grassland conservation program to protect at-risk grasslands from conversion to cropland in the northern Great Plains. Natural resources partners have leveraged more than $3 million in private and federal funding to support an innovative program that extends protection of privately-owned grasslands that have expired under the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP). In the past two years alone, the number of CRP acres nationally has dropped from 31.2 million to 27 million. Of the 4.2-million-acre-decline, lands lost in North Dakota and Montana accounted for 1.6 million acres, or 38 percent. The program aims to encourage private landowners to conserve CRP grasslands...
Scientists will employ land use change build-out scenaria for future energy development demand to quantify future impacts on forest habitats across the Appalachian LCC. We propose to create maps of wind, oil and gas, and coal development potential for the entire study area and use these maps and published projections from federal and state land management agencies to model future build-out scenaria.
These results are a compilation of climate change vulnerability assessments in the southeastern portion of the LCC, covering the area from southern West Virginia, south to Alabama, west to eastern Kentucky and Tennessee. Hyperlinks to additional information are separated into two additional spreadsheets, one for aquatic and subterranean, and another for terrestrial species.
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Provisional Tennessee State Wildlife Action Plan (TN-SWAP) terrestrial habitat priorities versus results of the population growth model developed by the Tennessee Chapter of The Nature Conservancy, 2008, converted to percent projected developed landcover in the year 2040. Spatial growth model was developed using population growth projections from the University of Tennessee Center for Business and Economic Research (UT-CBER), county urban growth boundaries, 2000 census blocks, and various ancillary datasets.
map background search result map search result map Assessing and Mapping Rare Plant Species Vulnerability to Climate Change WASSI Future Change in Water Supply Stress Index 1991-2010 ForWarn Mean Summer National Difference Vegetation Index 2009-2013 Florida Critical Lands and Waters Identification Project 4 0 Carbon sequestration research to benefit grassland conservation in the northern Great Plains Comparative Analysis of Native Prairie Spatial Delineation Methods in the Prairie Ecozone Provisional Tennessee State Wildlife Action Plan Potential Urban Growth Carbon sequestration research to benefit grassland conservation in the northern Great Plains Provisional Tennessee State Wildlife Action Plan Potential Urban Growth Florida Critical Lands and Waters Identification Project 4 0 Assessing and Mapping Rare Plant Species Vulnerability to Climate Change WASSI Future Change in Water Supply Stress Index 1991-2010 ForWarn Mean Summer National Difference Vegetation Index 2009-2013 Comparative Analysis of Native Prairie Spatial Delineation Methods in the Prairie Ecozone