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This project developed a soil vulnerability index and map indicating where forest cover will be most affected by climate change. Using this map, researchers developed a greater understanding of potential changes in soil moisture and temperature regimes under future climate conditions. They then evaluated how this information could be used to improve vegetation models across the landscape. They compared the results of different modeling approaches to the soil vulnerability map, synthesized the state of knowledge and uncertainty, and introduced management implications for action.
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2011, AK, AK, AK, AK, All tags...
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This project used species distribution modeling to assess the risk to habitat change under various climate change scenarios for rare plants. To predict the response of rare plant species to climate change, the project modeled the current distribution of the species using climate and environmental data (e.g., soils, disturbance, land-use), use these models to predict the species distribution given climate change, calculate current and future range size, calculate the amount of overlap of predicted future distribution with current distribution, and assess where barriers and protected areas are located with reference to the change in species distribution. Given the results of the distribution modeling, each species...
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Phase 1 & 2 (2010, 2012): This project developed a sampling design and monitoring protocol for wintering shorebirds in the Central Valley and in the San Francisco Bay Estuary and develop an LCC-specific online shorebird monitoring portal publicly available at the California Avian Data Center. The three objectives in Phase II of this project are: 1) Complete the shorebird monitoring plan for the CA LCC by developing a sampling design and monitoring protocol for wintering shorebirds in coastal southern California and northern Mexico. 2) Develop models to evaluate the influence of habitat factors from multiple spatial scales on shorebird use of San Francisco Bay and managed wetlands in the Sacramento Valley, as a model...
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2010, 2011, 2013, Academics & scientific researchers, Academics & scientific researchers, All tags...
This project designed a monitoring program and protocol to detect the effects of climate change on tidal marsh bird population abundance and distribution. It is a companion to “Tidal Marsh Bird Population and Habitat Assessment for San Francisco Bay under Future Climate Change Conditions” and will build on its products, enabling evaluation of the long-term viability of four tidal-marsh bird species threatened by impacts of climate change: Clapper Rail, Black Rail, Common Yellowthroat, and Song Sparrow (three endemic subspecies: San Pablo, Suisun, and Alameda). Information is available through the California Avian Data Center. See also: http://data.prbo.org/apps/sfbslr/index.php?page=lcc-page
This project evaluates the effects of global climate change and sea level rise on estuarine intertidal habitat in the San Francisco Bay and the Pacific Flyway migratory waterbirds that rely on this habitat. Phase 2 of this project is a continuation of work to evaluate the effects of global climate change and sea level rise (SLR) on intertidal shoals in the San Francisco Bay Estuary and the migratory waterbirds that rely on this critically important resource in the Pacific Flyway. The primary objectives are to: 1) use downscaled global climate change models to translate SLR and climate scenarios into habitat quantity predictions through Delft3D and Dflow-FM (unstructured grid) geomorphic modeling; 2) model the response...
This project integrates fire risk models, species distribution models (SDMs) and population models with scenarios of future climate and land cover to project how the effects of climate-induced changes to species distributions and land use change will impact threatened species in fire-prone ecosystems. This project also identifies and prioritizes potential management responses to climate change (e.g. assisted colonization, fire management, land protection, dispersal corridors). Anticipated products include: 1) maps (digital and hard copy) of habitat suitability under current and future climate change, current and future projected urban growth and combinations of climate change and future projected urban growth, under...
Categories: Data, Project; Tags: 2011, Academics & scientific researchers, CA, CA-Southern, California Landscape Conservation Cooperative, All tags...
This project used species distribution modeling, population genetics, and geospatial analysis of historical vs. modern vertebrate populations to identify climate change refugia and population connectivity across the Sierra Nevada. It is hypothesized that climate change refugia will increase persistence and stability of populations and, as a result, maintain higher genetic diversity. This work helps managers assess the need to include connectivity and refugia in climate change adaptation strategies. Results help Sierra Nevada land managers allocate limited resources, aid future scenario assessment at landscape scales, and develop a performance measure for assessing resilience.
Categories: Data, Project; Tags: 2011, 2013, CA, California Landscape Conservation Cooperative, Conservation Design, All tags...
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Twelve expert focus groups convened for comprehensive, cross-disciplinary discussions on climate change effects and adaptation strategies in marine/coastal and freshwater ecosystems across the North Pacific LCC landscape. Challenges and science or tool gaps were also discussed.
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2011, AK, AK, AK, AK, All tags...
The main goal of this project is to ensure that the 2011-13 climate change update to the Baylands Ecosystem Habitat Goals Report (Baylands Goals) and other key, ongoing conservation activities in the San Francisco Bay region use the latest information about the current and future status of San Francisco Bay tidal marsh ecosystems, particularly in the context of sea-level rise. The main product of the project is the improved Sea Level Rise (SLR) Tool, specifically upgraded to inform the Baylands Goals Report update. The tool will continue to be available online at www.prbo.org/sfbayslr. All data layers going into the tool are and will continue to be downloadable from the site.
This project uses bottom-up modeling at a parcel scale to measure the effects of sea-level rise (SLR) on coastal ecosystems and tidal salt marshes. At selected tidal marshes, the project team will measure several parameters that will be incorporated into ArcGIS models creating comparable datasets across the Pacific coast tidal gradient with a focus on 2-4 sites in the California LCC (e.g. San Diego, San Francisco Bay Refuges). The ultimate goal is to provide science support tools for local adaptation planning from the bottom-up that may be implemented under a structured decision-making framework.Science Delivery Phase (2013): The objectives are to: (1) Disseminate site-specific baseline data and modeling results,...
Categories: Data, Project; Tags: 2011, 2013, Applications and Tools, CA, CA-Northern, All tags...
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This project used the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index tool to assess vulnerability of 140 bird species that breed in the Sierra Nevada and will develop a peer-reviewed Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for Sierra Nevada bird species that are most vulnerable to climate change. The Strategy provides recommendations for actions that managers can take now and in the future to bolster resilience to climate change.
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This project used the NatureServe Climate Change Vulnerability Index tool to assess vulnerability of 140 bird species that breed in the Sierra Nevada and will develop a peer-reviewed Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for Sierra Nevada bird species that are most vulnerable to climate change. The Strategy provides recommendations for actions that managers can take now and in the future to bolster resilience to climate change.
The CA Academy of Science and Point Blue Conservation Science conducted a systematic analysis of uncertainty in modeling the future distributions of ~50 California endemic plant species and ~50 California land birds, explicitly partitioning among 5 alternative sources of variation and testing for their respective contributions to overall variation among modeled outcomes. They mapped the uncertainty from identified sources, which can guide decisions about monitoring, restoration, acquisition, infrastructure, etc., in relation to climate change.
Most natural resource managers, planners and policy makers are now dependent upon spatially explicit environmental suitability and spatial allocation analyses to inform policy and management decisions. However, staff across agencies has been unable to stay current on understanding and applying these new data, tools and analyses. Currently, this information may be underutilized or used inappropriately, which could result in poor decisions. Two training curricula were developed – one for managers and one for GIS analysts – on current best practices for developing and using spatial information to support conservation decision making. The training materials are open-source and widely distributed to California LCC stakeholders.
The project objective is to transfer to California a previously developed prioritization framework that combines intraspecific genetic and morphological variation with traditionally used indices of biodiversity, and test its general utility for conservation prioritization. This project will integrate existing data on intraspecific variation of multiple species in the Santa Monica Mountains National Recreational Area with climate data and space-borne measurements of the environment to identify areas with high intraspecific variation.
California’s native fishes are mostly endemic, with no place to go as climate change increases water temperatures and alters stream flows. Many of the alien fishes, however, are likely to benefit from the effects of climate change. The goal of this project is to synthesize life history traits, population trends, status, and threats, including climate change, for all fishes in the state. We have found that 25% of the endemic fishes are now in danger of extinction. Climate change in conjunction with alien species, agriculture, and dams pose the greatest threat to native fishes. Preliminary results from two regional analyses suggest that native fishes in the Sierra Nevada are slightly less (74%) vulnerable to climate...
This project developed a foundation for monitoring environmental change by identifying where and what to monitor in order to evaluate climate-change impacts. Phase 1 focused on landbirds, however a framework will be developed that recommends standardized monitoring for other taxa and environmental attributes. Phase II Deliverables produced as part of this proposed work include a Business Plan that 1) refines site selection by developing a decision model in combination with analyses of sites (or clusters of sites) arrayed by climate space, 2) works with the LCC science committee, Joint Ventures, and other partners to choose a manageable number of core monitoring variables, 3) develops and/or adopting existing protocols...
In its first funded year this project created an online environment in which land managers and their technical support staff can quickly find the climate adaptation information they need and communicate with the researchers producing the data. Phase 2 of the project focused on reaching out to the user community to get them engaged in the Climate Commons, and continuing development of the site. In year 3 and beyond, the Climate Commons became the CA LCC’s project data management platform as well as a digital library offering a starting place to find climate change science relevant to conservation decision-making. http://climate.calcommons.org.
Categories: Data, Project; Tags: 2011, 2012, Academics & scientific researchers, Applications and Tools, CA, All tags...


map background search result map search result map Moving from Impacts to Action: Expert Focus Groups for Climate Change Impacts in Coastal/Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems. Pacific Northwest Forest Soils:  Creating a Soil Vulnerability Index to Identify Drought Sensitive Areas Assessing and Mapping Rare Plant Species Vulnerability to Climate Change A Monitoring Protocol to Assess Wintering Shorebird Population Trends Assessing climate change vulnerability and developing a climate change adaptation strategy for Sierra Nevada birds Assessing climate change vulnerability and developing a climate change adaptation strategy for Sierra Nevada birds Moving from Impacts to Action: Expert Focus Groups for Climate Change Impacts in Coastal/Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems. Assessing climate change vulnerability and developing a climate change adaptation strategy for Sierra Nevada birds Assessing climate change vulnerability and developing a climate change adaptation strategy for Sierra Nevada birds A Monitoring Protocol to Assess Wintering Shorebird Population Trends Pacific Northwest Forest Soils:  Creating a Soil Vulnerability Index to Identify Drought Sensitive Areas Assessing and Mapping Rare Plant Species Vulnerability to Climate Change