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Filters: Tags: {"type":"Science Themes"} (X) > Extensions: Citation (X) > partyWithName: Bradley M. Romine (X)

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Abstract (from http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11069-015-1698-6): Chronic erosion in Hawaiʻi causes beach loss, damages homes and infrastructure, and endangers critical habitat. These problems will likely worsen with increased sea level rise (SLR). We forecast future coastal change by combining historical shoreline trends with projected accelerations in SLR ( IPCC RCP8.5) using the Davidson-Arnott profile model. The resulting erosion hazard zones are overlain on aerial photos and other GIS layers to provide a tool for identifying assets exposed to future coastal erosion. We estimate rates and distances of shoreline change for ten study sites across the Hawaiian Islands. Excluding one beach (Kailua) historically...
Planning community resilience to sea level rise (SLR) requires information about where, when, and how SLR hazards will impact the coastal zone. We augment passive flood mapping (the so-called “bathtub” approach) by simulating physical processes posing recurrent threats to coastal infrastructure, communities, and ecosystems in Hawai‘i (including tidally-forced direct marine and groundwater flooding, seasonal wave inundation, and chronic coastal erosion). We find that the “bathtub” approach, alone, ignores 35–54 percent of the total land area exposed to one or more of these hazards, depending on location and SLR scenario. We conclude that modeling dynamic processes, including waves and erosion, is essential to robust...