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Coastal National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) provide a myriad of beneficial services, including buffering storm surge, improving water quality, supporting commercial fisheries, and providing habitat for imperiled wildlife and plants. Yet in the last century, coastal ecosystems in the eastern U.S. have been severely altered by human development activities as well as sea-level rise and more frequent extreme events related to climate change. These influences threaten the goods and services provided by NWRs and pose decision-making challenges for refuge managers. The purpose of this project was to explore how structured decision-making – a formal, systematic method for analyzing decisions – could help NWR staff make informed...
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The Northeast U.S. coast is experiencing some of the fastest rates of sea level rise in the world. The Boston Harbor Islands National Recreation Area is particularly at risk from sea level rise and coastal storm impacts. Erosion and storm impacts have already led to the degradation of shoreline habitats and protective structures (e.g., sea walls), as well as direct impacts to historic landmarks on some islands. The need to establish reliable methods for inventory and monitoring of marine nearshore habitats has emerged out of an effort to use the Boston Harbor Islands as study sites to understand how experimental manipulation of the coastline (e.g., the installation of in-water reefs) might reduce wave energy and...
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Climate change and the extreme weather associated with it can be a major challenge to landowners and land managers interested in the protection, restoration, recovery, and management of wetlands and wildlife habitats. The Midwest is not only experiencing an increase in average temperatures and precipitation, but also an increase in the frequency of extreme events, such as heat waves and floods. Forecasting the potential impacts of the changes over the next 25 to 50 years will be important for decision makers and landowners seeking to minimize the impacts to infrastructure and to the habitats themselves and prepare for the future. Changes in flood frequency threaten habitat management infrastructure and actions,...
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Wetland plants are important to Wabanaki people in Maine and are central to Houlton Band of Maliseet Indian (HBMI) identity. HBMI peoples have harvested culturally important plants within the Meduxnekeag watershed for generations. Basket making and medicinal plant harvesting are forms of cultural preservation that are also important to Tribal economies. Projections for climate change in the northeastern U.S. include warmer temperatures and changes in the timing, amount, and intensity of precipitation. The hydrological consequences of projected changes will likely include increased temperatures,reduced winter ice cover on lakes and streams, earlier spring streamflow peaks, reduced summer streamflow, and increased...
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Previous climate change research for the Colorado River Basin has used down-scaled climate models to predict impacts to hydropower and the potential ability to meet mandated water releases. The Lower Colorado River Basin (LCRB) has one of the most imperiled fish faunas in the nation with about half of the native fish species listed as Threatened or Endangered under the Federal Endangered Species Act. Current water demands for agriculture and human consumption are only slightly less than long-term annual flows. Future projections based on climate change alone indicate decreased precipitation, increased temperatures, and lower annual runoff which will further stress this ecosystem that is experiencing among the highest...
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The loggerhead sea turtle, found in the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans, is divided into nine distinct populations—five of which are federally endangered and four of which are federally threatened. Unfortunately, climate change may be putting the species at further risk. Sea-level rise, increased storm frequency, and changes in temperature and humidity could reduce the suitability of habitat used by loggerheads and other endangered sea turtles for nesting and feeding. This project assessed the vulnerability of key sea turtle nesting beaches to climate change in the Southeast. Researchers examined previous records of sea turtle nesting locations in the Southeast to identify the characteristics of these beaches,...
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High latitude northern ecosystems are currently warming twice as fast as the global average. Over the last several decades, this has caused dramatic losses of frozen area in the Arctic and sub-Arctic. However, it is unclear how melting coastal mountain glaciers, thawing permafrost, and declines in snowpack will affect the quality of freshwater habitat for culturally and economically important salmon in Alaska. As a collaborative effort with the Alaska Department of Fish and Game, the Alaska Department of Natural Resources, and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, this project aims to answer three questions: How does melting affect the freshwater habitat of Pacific salmon? How will changes to aquatic flows...
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Salmonids (a family of fish that includes salmon, trout, and char) are a keystone species for both aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, and can be an early warning indicator of ecosystem health. Salmonids also have strong societal values and contribute enormously to regional economies and Native American cultures. Today, many native salmonid populations are small, highly fragmented, and isolated from genetic exchange, thereby increasing their vulnerability to disturbances due to their limited ability to adapt through migration. Rising global air temperatures are altering the characteristics of aquatic ecosystems worldwide, including freshwater in the United States. Understanding the vulnerability of aquatic species...
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The Northeast United States and Atlantic Canada share many of the same types of forests, wetlands, and natural communities, and from a wildlife perspective the region is one contiguous forest. However, resources are classified and mapped differently on the two sides of the border, creating challenges for habitat evaluation, species modeling, and predicting the effects of climate change. To remedy this, ecologists from The Nature Conservancy collaborated with a committee of scientists from various Canadian institutions to produce the first international map of terrestrial habitats for northeast North America. The project used extensive spatial data on geology, soils, landforms, wetlands, elevation and climate. Additionally,...
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Loss of saltmarsh habitat is one of the biggest threats to coastal sustainability in the Northeast. Salt marsh has been identified as an essential fish and wildlife habitat, and loss of saltmarsh corresponds with precipitous declines in marsh-dependent wildlife. For example, the global population of Saltmarsh Sparrow is predicted to collapse within the next 50 years after experiencing a 9% annual decline across the northeastern U.S. Resource managers require tools to help restore salt marsh habitat for wildlife by adapting marshes to climate change-driven sea level rise. However, adaptation approaches need to be tested and evaluated before widespread application. Researchers are testing a rapidly emerging sea...
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Coastal flooding and erosion caused by storms and sea-level rise threaten infrastructure and public safety in Alaska Native communities. Though the problem is well known, there are few tools that can assess local vulnerability to coastal flood hazards. Even fewer tools can be customized with specific community information to support local adaptation planning. The main goal of this project is to use the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) platform to co-produce customized local flood hazard maps and online tools to support the development of culturally-appropriate and cost-efficient adaptation strategies in Alaska. The project team will work with federal, state, and local community representatives to understand...
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Cyanobacteria blooms are one of the most significant management challenges in the Great Lakes today. Recurring blooms of varying toxicity are commonly observed in four of the Great Lakes, and the fifth, Lake Superior, has experienced intermittent nearshore blooms since 2012. The recent advent of cyanobacterial blooms in Lake Superior is disconcerting, given the highly valued, pristine water quality of the large lake. It is possible that the ecological state of Lake Superior is shifting and that we are witnessing the beginnings of larger and longer lasting bloom events. As a public resource, the coastal water quality of Lake Superior has tremendous economic, public health, and environmental value, and therefore,...
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Tens of millions of migratory birds are dependent on wetland and riparian stopovers in arid and semiarid regions of North America. Global climate change would superimpose even greater stress on these ecosystems as indicated by climate change model predictions of higher temperatures and less precipitation in the southwestern United States. In partnership with the University of Arizona, the Nebraska Cooperative Research Unit, and the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, USGS scientists have investigated (1) how climate change may alter the spacing and quality of critical wetland stopover habitats; (2) the sensitivities of migrating songbirds to loss of riparian forests due to climate change and water-use patterns; (3)...
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One of the largest and most expensive restoration efforts in the world is the restoration of the Everglades, a sub-tropical freshwater wetland system located in southern Florida. This unique ecosystem supports several endemic and endangered species, provides flood control for Florida’s large urban population, and provides water for both the agricultural and drinking supply within the state. The Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP), authorized by Congress in 2000, guides federal, state, and local efforts to build the infrastructure necessary to bring more water into the Everglades and restore its ecological integrity. The Everglades flows into the southern coast of Florida and restoration efforts are...
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The broad range of complex factors influencing coastal systems contribute to large uncertainties in predicting long-term sea level rise impacts. Researchers demonstrated the capabilities of a Bayesian network (BN) to predict long-term shoreline change associated with sea level rise and make quantitative assessments for predicting uncertainty. A BN was used to define relationships between driving forces, geologic constraints, and coastal response for the U.S. Atlantic coast that include observations of local rates of relative sea level rise, wave height, tide range, geomorphic classification, coastal slope, and shoreline change rate. The BN was used to make probabilistic predictions of shoreline retreat in response...
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Winter conditions have changed substantially in the Great Lakes region over the last 50 years, with the region experiencing rising temperatures, declining lake ice cover, and increased lake-effect snow. These changes have direct implications for economically important wildlife, such as deer and waterfowl. Deer hunting alone contributes $482 million annually to Wisconsin’s economy. The goal of this project was to identify how winter severity, snowpack, and lake ice could change through the mid- and late-21st century, and how species such as the white-tailed deer and mallard duck will respond. Because currently available climate data is at too coarse a scale to provide information on future conditions for the Great...
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Human impacts occurring throughout the DOI Northeast Climate Science Center, including urbanization, agriculture, and dams, have multiple effects on streams in the region which support economically valuable stream fishes. Changes in climate are expected to lead to additional impacts in stream habitats and fish assemblages in multiple ways, including changing stream water temperatures. To manage streams for current impacts and future changes, managers need region-wide information for decision-making and developing proactive management strategies. Our project met that need by integrating results of a current condition assessment of stream habitats based on fish response to human land use, water quality impairment,...
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Aquatic ecosystems provide habitat and migration corridors to a myriad of species, including plants, fishes, amphibians, birds, mammals, and insects. These ecosystems typically contain relatively higher biodiversity than their terrestrial counterparts; yet, aquatic biodiversity loss in North America is occurring at a rate five times faster than in terrestrial ecosystems. One of the major causes of this accelerated biodiversity loss is climate change. In the last two decades, states in the Northeastern U.S. have developed management plans for protecting aquatic biodiversity. Recent plans consider the general impacts from climate change and include the protection of several habitat types which should promote biodiversity...
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In 2010, 39 percent of the U.S.population lived near the coast. This population is expected to increase by 8 percent from 2010 to 2020. Coastal regions are also home to species and habitats that provide critical services to humans, such as wetlands that buffer coasts from storms. Therefore, sea-level rise and the associated changes in coastlines challenge both human communities and ecosystems. Understanding which coastal lands will be vulnerable to sea-level rise is critical for policy makers, land-use planners, and coastal residents. Focusing on the coastal region from Virginia to Maine, researchers examined a range of different possible sea-level rise scenarios, combined with information on features of the coastal...
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Recent extreme floods on the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers have motivated decision-makers and resource managers to expaned floodplain conservation lands. Within Missouri, there are more than 85,000 acres of public conservation lands in large-river floodplains. Floodplain lands are highly dynamic and challenging to manage, particularly climatic conditions change. These lands have the potential to provide valuable ecosystem services, like wildlife habitat, nutrient processing, carbon sequestration, and flood-water storage, that produce economic values in terms of recreational spending, improved water quality, and decreased flood hazards. However, floodplain managers may need tools to help them understand changing...
map background search result map search result map Projected Impacts of Future Climate on Bird Conservation in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions The Vulnerability of Sea Turtle Nesting Beaches to Climate Change in the Southeast Developing a Comprehensive Terrestrial Habitat Map for the Northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada to Inform Planning Decisions Evaluating Sea-level Rise Impacts in the Northeastern U.S. Projected Climate and Land Use Change Impacts on Aquatic Habitats of the Lower Colorado River Basin (Regional Assessment) FishTail: A Tool to Inform Conservation of Stream Fish Habitats in the Northeast Science to Inform Management of Floodplain Conservation Lands in a Changing World Projecting Changes in Snow, Lake Ice, and Winter Severity in the Great Lakes Region for Wildlife-Based Adaptation Planning Informing Conservation Management Decision-Making at Coastal National Wildlife Refuges The Past as a Prelude to the Future: Assessing Climate Effects on Native Trout in the U.S. SERAP: Assessment of Shoreline Retreat in Response to Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning for Projected Changes in Water Quality and Quantity for Protected Areas in the Upper Mississippi Watershed Climate, Storms, and the Drivers of Cyanobacteria Blooms in Lake Superior Mapping Salt Marsh Response to Sea Level Rise and Evaluating 'Runneling' as an Adaptation Technique to Inform Wildlife Habitat Management in New England A Novel Monitoring Framework to Assess Intertidal Biodiversity in Mixed Coarse Substrate Habitats Across the Boston Harbor Islands Framework for Protecting Aquatic Biodiversity in the Northeast Under Changing Climates Integrating Sea Level Rise Scenarios into Everglades Restoration Planning The Impact of Climate Change on Culturally Significant Wetland Plants and Their Habitat in the Meduxnekeag River Watershed in Maine Building a Coastal Flood Hazard Assessment and Adaptation Strategy with At-Risk Communities of Alaska Future of Aquatic Flows: Impacts of Cryospheric Change on Aquatic Flows and Freshwater Habitat Quality for Fish and Communities The Vulnerability of Sea Turtle Nesting Beaches to Climate Change in the Southeast A Novel Monitoring Framework to Assess Intertidal Biodiversity in Mixed Coarse Substrate Habitats Across the Boston Harbor Islands Informing Conservation Management Decision-Making at Coastal National Wildlife Refuges Climate, Storms, and the Drivers of Cyanobacteria Blooms in Lake Superior Mapping Salt Marsh Response to Sea Level Rise and Evaluating 'Runneling' as an Adaptation Technique to Inform Wildlife Habitat Management in New England SERAP: Assessment of Shoreline Retreat in Response to Sea Level Rise Projected Climate and Land Use Change Impacts on Aquatic Habitats of the Lower Colorado River Basin (Regional Assessment) Science to Inform Management of Floodplain Conservation Lands in a Changing World Projected Impacts of Future Climate on Bird Conservation in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions Developing a Comprehensive Terrestrial Habitat Map for the Northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada to Inform Planning Decisions Evaluating Sea-level Rise Impacts in the Northeastern U.S. Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning for Projected Changes in Water Quality and Quantity for Protected Areas in the Upper Mississippi Watershed Framework for Protecting Aquatic Biodiversity in the Northeast Under Changing Climates FishTail: A Tool to Inform Conservation of Stream Fish Habitats in the Northeast Projecting Changes in Snow, Lake Ice, and Winter Severity in the Great Lakes Region for Wildlife-Based Adaptation Planning Building a Coastal Flood Hazard Assessment and Adaptation Strategy with At-Risk Communities of Alaska Future of Aquatic Flows: Impacts of Cryospheric Change on Aquatic Flows and Freshwater Habitat Quality for Fish and Communities The Past as a Prelude to the Future: Assessing Climate Effects on Native Trout in the U.S.