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The PFLCC has recently completed a set of comprehensive conservation planning scenarios for the state of Florida. This represents the first statewide effort to assess likely alternative futures for conservation considering an array of financial, biological, climatological and urbanistic conditions. These spatially explicit and temporal scenarios simulate both urban growth and climate change and identify the most suitable areas for conservation given the resulting land use pattern. Conservation allocations are based on both fee-title and conservation easements.The conservation priorities and mechanisms expressed in these scenarios are based on a wide set of contributing factors, and simulated conservation is purposefully...
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Within the time frame of the longevity of tree species, climate change will change faster than the ability of natural tree migration. Migration lags may result in reduced productivity and reduced diversity in forests under current management and climate change. We evaluated the efficacy of planting climate-suitable tree species (CSP), those tree species with current or historic distributions immediately south of a focal landscape, to maintain or increase aboveground biomass, productivity, and species and functional diversity. We modeled forest change with the LANDIS-II forest simulation model for 100 years (2000–2100) at a 2-ha cell resolution and five-year time steps within two landscapes in the Great Lakes region...
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This database integrates a list of vegetation transformations that occurred across the Southern and Middle Rockies since 21,000 years ago, the age of occurrence, the type of vegetation switch that occurred, whether the rates of vegetation change peaked at that time, and when applicable, the duration of peak rates of vegetation change.
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This study set out to answer the question: “What data and modeling frameworks are needed to provide scientists reliable, climate-informed, water temperature estimates for freshwater ecosystems that can assist watershed management decision making?” To accomplish this, the study gathered existing stream temperature data, identified data gaps, deployed stream temperature monitoring devices, and developed and tested a stream temperature model that could be regionalized across the Northeast domain. We partnered with another funded project team, led by Jana Stewart at WI USGS to collect data from over 10,000 locations across the climate science center domain. This collection effort aided in identifying data gaps where...
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We routinely encounter uncertainty when we make decisions – from picking a new morning coffee to choosing where to live. Even decisions that are supported by science contain some level of remaining uncertainty. In the context of conservation and wildlife management, the potential for uncertainty to influence decisions is perhaps most obvious when we think about predicting how actions (or non-actions) will have lasting impacts into the future. Our abilities to precisely predict future climatic and ecological conditions and determine the exact consequences of our actions are, and will remain, limited. Conservation practitioners and land and wildlife managers must navigate these challenges to make science-informed...
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USGS researchers assessed how climate change can affect land cover and flow in river systems, examining a variety of resolutions for detecting and projecting the conditions of aquatic habitats and species.
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The USGS and South Atlantic LCC worked with stakeholders and managers across the Southeast to identify and assess landscape-level strategies for conserving multiple species. These strategies incorporated predictions from downscaled climate models, sea level rise, and changes to aquatic and terrestrial habitats.
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The Southeastern United States spans a broad range of physiographic settings and maintains exceptionally high levels of faunal diversity. Unfortunately, many of these ecosystems are increasingly under threat due to rapid human development, and management agencies are increasingly aware of the potential effects that climate change will have on these ecosystems. Natural resource managers and conservation planners can be effective at preserving ecosystems in the face of these stressors only if they can adapt current conservation efforts to increase the overall resilience of the system. Climate change, in particular, challenges many of the basic assumptions used by conservation planners and managers. Previous conservation...
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Stream networks with reservoirs provide a particularly hard modeling challenge because reservoirs can decouple physical processes (e.g., water temperature dynamics in streams) from atmospheric signals. Including observed reservoir releases as inputs to models can improve water temperature predictions below reservoirs, but many reservoirs are not well-observed. This data release contains predictions from stream temperature models described in Jia et al. 2022, which describes different deep learning and process-guided deep learning model architectures that were developed to handle scenarios of missing reservoir releases. The spatial extent of this modeling effort was restricted to two spatially disjointed regions...
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This data release contains monthly 270-meter resolution Basin Characterization Model (BCMv8) climate and hydrologic variables for Localized Constructed Analog (LOCA; Pierce et al., 2014)-downscaled CanESM2 Global Climate Model (GCM) for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 (medium-low emissions) and 8.5 (high emissions) for hydrologic California. The LOCA climate scenarios span water years 1950 to 2099 with greenhouse-gas forcings beginning in 2006. The LOCA downscaling method has been shown to produce better estimates of extreme events and reduces the common downscaling problem of too many low-precipitation days (Pierce et al., 2014). Ten GCMs were selected from the full ensemble of models from the fifth...
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This data release contains monthly 270-meter resolution Basin Characterization Model (BCMv8) climate and hydrologic variables for Localized Constructed Analog (LOCA; Pierce et al., 2014)-downscaled CMCC-CMS Global Climate Model (GCM) for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 (medium-low emissions) and 8.5 (high emissions) for hydrologic California. The LOCA climate scenarios span water years 1950 to 2099 with greenhouse-gas forcings beginning in 2006. The LOCA downscaling method has been shown to produce better estimates of extreme events and reduces the common downscaling problem of too many low-precipitation days (Pierce et al., 2014). Ten GCMs were selected from the full ensemble of models from the fifth...


map background search result map search result map Bringing People, Data, and Models Together – Addressing Impacts of Climate Change on Stream Temperature Turning Uncertainty into Useful Information for Conservation Decisions SERAP:  The Effects of Climate Change on Aquatic Species and Habitat in the Southeast SERAP: Decision Support for Stakeholders and Managers Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP): Assessing Global Change Impacts on Natural and Human Systems in the Southeast Publication: Climate-suitable planting as a strategy for maintaining forest productivity and functional diversity Impact Assessment Grids Stream temperature predictions in the Delaware River Basin using pseudo-prospective learning and physical simulations Type and speed of vegetation transformations over the past 21,000 years in the Middle and Southern Rockies, U.S.A. Future Climate and Hydrology from the Basin Characterization Model (BCMv8) using LOCA-downscaled Global Climate Model CanESM2 Future Climate and Hydrology from the Basin Characterization Model (BCMv8) using LOCA-downscaled Global Climate Model CMCC-CMS Stream temperature predictions in the Delaware River Basin using pseudo-prospective learning and physical simulations SERAP:  The Effects of Climate Change on Aquatic Species and Habitat in the Southeast Impact Assessment Grids SERAP: Decision Support for Stakeholders and Managers Future Climate and Hydrology from the Basin Characterization Model (BCMv8) using LOCA-downscaled Global Climate Model CanESM2 Future Climate and Hydrology from the Basin Characterization Model (BCMv8) using LOCA-downscaled Global Climate Model CMCC-CMS Publication: Climate-suitable planting as a strategy for maintaining forest productivity and functional diversity Type and speed of vegetation transformations over the past 21,000 years in the Middle and Southern Rockies, U.S.A. Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP): Assessing Global Change Impacts on Natural and Human Systems in the Southeast Bringing People, Data, and Models Together – Addressing Impacts of Climate Change on Stream Temperature Turning Uncertainty into Useful Information for Conservation Decisions