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Our project focuses on understanding patterns and causes of recent population declines in the Haleakala silversword that are associated with decreasing precipitation, increasing temperature, and related climate changes in Hawaii’s high-elevation ecosystems. The Haleakala silversword is an ideal taxon with which to assess impacts from climate change. It forms the foundation of a diverse alpine community and likely reflects wider ecological changes; it is already exhibiting patterns of mortality consistent with an upslope shifting distribution; and its high visibility and symbolic status make it unmatched in educational potential. Building on extensive research infrastructure, we propose to collect the demographic...
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Categories: Data; Tags: completed, map
Website: “Climate Change Refugia” website features a dynamic, interactive refugia map and all deliverables
Local Ecological Knowledge and Climate Change Portal housing all of the data and products produced from this project.
Future Wind and Wave Projections for the NPS and USFWS-managed Islands in the Pacific Ocean GIS Data
Understanding how climate change is affecting Hawaii’s high-elevation ecosystems: an assessment of the long-term viability of Haleakala silverswords and associated biological communities Final Report
Responses of Hawaiian Albatrosses to Environmental Change Data outputs and metadata
Although climate change is predicted to place mountain-top and other narrowly endemic species at severe risk of extinction, the ecological processes involved in such extinctions are still poorly resolved. In addition, much of this biodiversity loss will likely go unobserved, and therefore largely unappreciated. The Haleakalā silversword is restricted to a single volcano summit in Hawai‘i, but is a highly charismatic giant rosette plant that is viewed by 1–2 million visitors annually. We link detailed local climate data to a lengthy demographic record, and combine both with a population-wide assessment of recent plant mortality and recruitment, to show that after decades of strong recovery following successful management,...
A Tool for Understanding Climate Change and Invasive Species Impacts on Watersheds Final Report.
The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been configured as a regional climate model for the Hawaii region (HRCM) to assess the uncertainties associated with the pseudo–global warming (PGW) downscaling method using different warming increments from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) model experiments. Results from 15-km downscaling experiments using warming increments from 10 individual CMIP5 models for the two warming scenarios representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) and 8.5 (RCP8.5) are compared with experiments using multimodel mean warming increments. The results show that changes in 2-m temperatures, 10-m wind speed, rainfall, water vapor path, and trade wind...
Strong evidence on climate change underscores the need for actions to reduce the impacts of sea-level rise. Global mean sea level may rise 0.18–0.48 m by mid-century1, 2 and 0.5–1.4 m by the end of the century2. Besides marine inundation, it is largely unrecognized that low-lying coastal areas may also be vulnerable to groundwater inundation, which is localized coastal-plain flooding due to a rise of the groundwater table with sea level. Measurements of the coastal groundwater elevation and tidal influence in urban Honolulu, Hawaii, allow estimates of the mean water table, which was used to assess vulnerability to groundwater inundation from sea-level rise. We find that 0.6 m of potential sea-level rise causes substantial...
Final report for the project titled “Field Monitoring and Analysis of Climate Change Across a Wide Range of Ecosystems in Hawai‘i”
A genecological approach was used to explore genetic variation for survival in Artemisia tridentata (big sagebrush). Artemisia tridentata is a widespread and foundational shrub species in western North America. This species has become extremely fragmented, to the detriment of dependent wildlife, and efforts to restore it are now a land manage-ment priority. Common- garden experiments were established at three sites with seed-lings from 55 source- populations. Populations included each of the three predominant subspecies, and cytotype variations. Survival was monitored for 5 years to assess dif-ferences in survival between gardens and populations. We found evidence of adap-tive genetic variation for survival. Survival...
On August 25, 2015 speaker Matt Germino presented on his work restoring sagebrush in the Great Basin. Shrubs are ecosystem foundation species in most of the Great Basin’s landscapes. Most of the species, including sagebrush, are poorly adapted to the changes in fire and invasive pressures that are compounded by climate change. This presentation gives an overview of challenges and opportunities regarding restoration of sagebrush and blackbrush, focusing on climate adaptation, selection of seeds and achieving seeding and planting success. Results from Great Basin LCC supported research on seed selection and planting techniques are presented.
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For the Green River Basin Landscape Conservation Design (GRB LCD) assessment, we mapped the vulnerability of the sagebrush ecosystem to oil and gas development for each 12-digit hydrologic unit. Using a vulnerability framework, we defined Sensitivity (S) as the multi-scale average of sagebrush ecosystem land cover derived from LANDFIRE Existing Vegetation Type (LANDFIRE 2014). Exposure (E) to oil and gas development was quantified as the average kernel density of active oil and gas wells at multiple scales. Potential Impact (PI) is the square root transformed product of oil and gas development exposure and sagebrush ecosystem sensitivity. Adaptive Capacity (AC) for sagebrush ecosystem was quantified as the inverse...
Nearshore bathymetry is a vital link that joins offshore water depths to coastal topography. Seamless water depth information is a critical input parameter for reliable storm surge models, enables the calculation of sediment budgets and is necessary baseline data for a range of coastal management decisions. Funding from the Western Alaska LCC resulted in the purchase of field equipment capable of shallow water measurements in rural settings, allowing collection of nearshore bathymetry around western Alaska communities. The resulting vector data shape files of nearshore bathymetry for Gambell, Savoonga, Golovin, Wales, Shismaref, and Hooper Bay are available by following the link below.
This project established a permafrost monitoring network in this region, providing a baseline of permafrost thermal regimes for assessing future change at a total of 26 automated monitoring stations. Stations have collected year-round temperature data from the active layer and the permafrost starting from the summer of 2011. The strong correspondence between spatial variability in permafrost thermal regime and an existing ecotype map allowed for the development of a map of ‘permafrost thermal classes’ for the broader study region. Further, the annual temperature data was used to calibrate models of soil thermal regimes as a function of climate, providing estimates of both historic and future permafrost thermal regimes...
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Native grasslands have been reduced to a fraction of their original extent, with estimated total loss prior to the 1990s of 70% for prairie grassland (Federal Provincial and Territorial Governments of Canada 2010). Conversion of native grassland to cropland and tame hayfields or pasture has been one of the leading drivers of native grassland loss in North America. Degradation of native grasslands also continues in some areas due to changes in natural disturbance regimes such as fire suppression and intensive prolonged cattle grazing, threats from invasive non-native species, fragmentation, intensification of agriculture, and economic development associated with population growth(Federal Provincial and Territorial...
Scientists will employ land use change build-out scenaria for future energy development demand to quantify future impacts on forest habitats across the Appalachian LCC. We propose to create maps of wind, oil and gas, and coal development potential for the entire study area and use these maps and published projections from federal and state land management agencies to model future build-out scenaria.
Comments from Technical Oversight Team regarding Energy Forecast Project Progress Report in Quarter 1, 2013.
map background search result map search result map Understanding how climate change is affecting Hawaii's high-elevation ecosystems: an assessment of the long-term viability of Haleakala silverswords and associated biological communities Comparative Analysis of Native Prairie Spatial Delineation Methods in the Prairie Ecozone Vulnerability of Sagebrush Ecosystem to Oil and Gas Development for the Green River Basin Vulnerability of Sagebrush Ecosystem to Oil and Gas Development for the Green River Basin Comparative Analysis of Native Prairie Spatial Delineation Methods in the Prairie Ecozone