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This paper describes a new methodology for assessing site-specific environmental impact of contaminants. The proposed method integrates traditional risk assessment approaches with real and variable environmental characteristics at a local scale. Environmental impact on selected receptors was classified for each environmental compartment into 5 categories derived from the whole (chronic and acute) risk assessment using 8 risk levels. Risk levels were established according to three hazard quotients (HQs) which represented the ratio of exposure to acute and chronic toxicity values. This tool allowed integrating in only one impact category all the elements involved in the standard risk assessment. The methodology was...
In 1988, the US Geological Survey began a study of the effects of potential climate change on the water resources of the Gunnison River basin. The Gunnison River, in southwestern Colorado, is an important tributary of the Colorado River, contributing approximately 40% of the flow of the Colorado River at the Colorado/Utah stateline. As part of the study, the sensitivity of annual and seasonal runoff in the East River basin, a sub-basin of the Gunnison River basin, to changes in temperature and precipitation was examined. To perform the sensitivity analyses, hypothetical climate changes were used to alter current time series of temperature and precipitation. The altered time series were then used as inputs to a hydrological...
How much does real GDP respond to unanticipated changes in the real price of oil? Commonly used censored VAR models suggest a substantial decline in real GDP in response to unexpected increases in the real price of oil, yet no response to unexpected declines. We show that these estimates are invalid. Based on a structural model that encompasses both symmetric and asymmetric models as special cases, correctly computed impulse responses are of roughly the same magnitude in either direction, consistent with formal tests for symmetric responses. We discuss implications for theoretical models and for policy responses to energy price shocks.
How much does real GDP respond to unanticipated changes in the real price of oil? Commonly used censored VAR models suggest a substantial decline in real GDP in response to unexpected increases in the real price of oil, yet no response to unexpected declines. We show that these estimates are invalid. Based on a structural model that encompasses both symmetric and asymmetric models as special cases, correctly computed impulse responses are of roughly the same magnitude in either direction, consistent with formal tests for symmetric responses. We discuss implications for theoretical models and for policy responses to energy price shocks.
Final Report Executive Summary: The Nature Conservancy and a team of 14 academic partners (the project team) received funding from the Bureau of Reclamation’s WaterSMART program and the Desert Landscape Conservation Cooperative in 2012 to conduct this Gila River Flow Needs Assessment. The assessment describes the existing condition of the Gila River in the Cliff-Gila Valley and examines the potential impacts of CUFA diversion and climate change on the riparian and aquatic ecosystem. The project team was assisted by 35 academic, agency and consulting scientists who have expertise in some aspect of the Gila River’s hydrology and ecology. This larger team of scientists provided input on a review draft of this assessment...
This paper describes a new methodology for assessing site-specific environmental impact of contaminants. The proposed method integrates traditional risk assessment approaches with real and variable environmental characteristics at a local scale. Environmental impact on selected receptors was classified for each environmental compartment into 5 categories derived from the whole (chronic and acute) risk assessment using 8 risk levels. Risk levels were established according to three hazard quotients (HQs) which represented the ratio of exposure to acute and chronic toxicity values. This tool allowed integrating in only one impact category all the elements involved in the standard risk assessment. The methodology was...
This paper describes a new methodology for assessing site-specific environmental impact of contaminants. The proposed method integrates traditional risk assessment approaches with real and variable environmental characteristics at a local scale. Environmental impact on selected receptors was classified for each environmental compartment into 5 categories derived from the whole (chronic and acute) risk assessment using 8 risk levels. Risk levels were established according to three hazard quotients (HQs) which represented the ratio of exposure to acute and chronic toxicity values. This tool allowed integrating in only one impact category all the elements involved in the standard risk assessment. The methodology was...
This paper describes a new methodology for assessing site-specific environmental impact of contaminants. The proposed method integrates traditional risk assessment approaches with real and variable environmental characteristics at a local scale. Environmental impact on selected receptors was classified for each environmental compartment into 5 categories derived from the whole (chronic and acute) risk assessment using 8 risk levels. Risk levels were established according to three hazard quotients (HQs) which represented the ratio of exposure to acute and chronic toxicity values. This tool allowed integrating in only one impact category all the elements involved in the standard risk assessment. The methodology was...
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The substantially natural hydrography of the upper Gila River supports one of the highest levels of aquatic and riparian biodiversity in the region, including the largest complement of native fishes and some of the best remaining riparian habitat in the lower Colorado River Basin. Native vegetation dominates the broad and structurally diverse floodplain, creating habitat for hundreds of birds and other wildlife. Two of the Gila’s fish species, spikedace and loach minnow, and a neotropical migratory bird, the southwestern willow flycatcher, are federally listed as endangered. The yellow-billed cuckoo, a candidate species for listing, nests in the Cliff-Gila Valley. Changes to the river’s hydrology, including peak...
Two basic retorting technologies are being developed: modified in situ (MIS) for underground retorting, and aboveground retorting (AGR) for processing mined shale. These technologies are not presently ready for large-scale commercialization, but a sound R&D base exists, and they could be made ready either by modular demonstration projects or construction of pioneer plants. The MIS process is being developed on two sites and one commercial facility is planned. Aboveground retorts have been tested at up to one-tenth of full size and at least one commercial-scale retort is planned in conjunction with an MIS demonstration. There are no firm plans for testing other above- -ground retorts, although several companies have...
We connected a cellular, dynamic, spatial urban growth model and a semi-distributed continuous hydrology model to quantitatively predict streamflow in response to possible future urban growth at a basin scale. The main goal was to demonstrate the utility of the approach for informing public planning policy and investment choices. The Hydrological Simulation Program—Fortran (HSPF) was set up and calibrated for the Kishwaukee River basin in the Midwestern USA and was repeatedly run with various land use scenarios generated either by the urban growth model (LEAMluc) or hypothetically. The results indicate that (1) the land use scenarios generated by LEAMluc result in little changes in total runoff but some noticeable...
How much does real GDP respond to unanticipated changes in the real price of oil? Commonly used censored VAR models suggest a substantial decline in real GDP in response to unexpected increases in the real price of oil, yet no response to unexpected declines. We show that these estimates are invalid. Based on a structural model that encompasses both symmetric and asymmetric models as special cases, correctly computed impulse responses are of roughly the same magnitude in either direction, consistent with formal tests for symmetric responses. We discuss implications for theoretical models and for policy responses to energy price shocks.
Our demands on natural systems outweigh the capacity of those systems to support us. This paper calls for an approach to development that consistently delivers ‘net benefit’ for biodiversity or ‘ecological enhancement’. Examples of enhancement are presented through four case studies in India undertaken between 2005 and 2010. Actions focus on improving the overall ecological structure, composition and functions of sites; strengthening ecological networks by creating new habitats and buffer areas; and improving the services provided by the ecosystems, without jeopardizing biodiversity. While recognizing the importance of quantitative metrics of impacts and mitigation measures to determine outcomes, such measures were...
How much does real GDP respond to unanticipated changes in the real price of oil? Commonly used censored VAR models suggest a substantial decline in real GDP in response to unexpected increases in the real price of oil, yet no response to unexpected declines. We show that these estimates are invalid. Based on a structural model that encompasses both symmetric and asymmetric models as special cases, correctly computed impulse responses are of roughly the same magnitude in either direction, consistent with formal tests for symmetric responses. We discuss implications for theoretical models and for policy responses to energy price shocks.
    map background search result map search result map Defining Ecosystem Water Needs of the Upper Gila River and Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change Defining Ecosystem Water Needs of the Upper Gila River and Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change