Landslide Probability in the San Francisco Bay Region. The Haywired Earthquake Scenario

This map shows the potential of widespread slope failures, in terms of landslide probability, triggered by a M7.0 scenario earthquake on the Hayward Fault in the 10-county area surrounding the San Francisco Bay region, California. The likelihood of landsliding was evaluated using an equation developed by Jibson and others (2000) that estimates landslide probability as a function of predicted Newmark displacement. Based on this equation, four landslide probability categories are established with their corresponding percent likelihood and displacement ranges: Low (0-2%; 0-1 cm), Moderate (2-15%; 1-5 cm), High (15-32%; 5-15 cm), and Very High (>32%; >15 cm).The seismic-landslide probability map covers the counties...

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