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Future climate conditions in the Upper Mississippi River Basin are projected to include many more extreme precipitation events. These intense periods of rain can lead to flooding of the Mississippi River itself, as well the small streams and rivers that feed it. This flooding presents a challenge for local communities, farmers, small businesses, river users, and the ecosystems and wildlife in the area. To reduce the damage done by these extreme rainfall events, ‘natural solutions’ are often helpful. This might include preserving forests and grasslands to absorb rainwater before it arrives at streams or restoring wetlands to slow and clean runoff water. For river and natural resource managers to adapt to future climate...
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The Midwest has experienced some of the costliest flooding events in U.S. history, including many billions of dollars during the past decade alone. The Midwest’s susceptibility to flooding has been exacerbated by a long-term increase in total precipitation and extreme rainfalls, with the 2010s being the region’s wettest decade on record Climate models strongly indicate that these recent trends will continue, such that the warming Midwest will experience wetter winters and springs, shortened snow seasons, and extreme year-round precipitation in the future. Despite this high level of confidence in climate trends, there is limited knowledge of how these will translate to flood likelihood and the associated societal...
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As part of the State Wildlife Grant Fund, states are required to submit State Wildlife Plans (SWAPs) every 10 years detailing threats to habitats and species and conservation plans. However, incorporating climate change in SWAPs is voluntary, and capacity/expertise limitations at state agencies have resulted in varied and often only partial consideration of climate change impacts. In response, the MW CASC will conduct literature reviews to assess climate stressors and impacts to habitats and key species and to identify relevant adaptation actions for 13 different Level 2/3 EPA Ecoregions contained within the MW CASC area states. This work will provide a foundation for future habitat vulnerability assessments. ...
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Manoomin, or wild rice, is an essential, sacred species for Native people throughout the Upper Great Lakes region, who have relied on the plant for food and ceremony for hundreds of years. Manoomin is also important to non-Native people, who also harvest it and benefit from the wildlife sustained by it. Manoomin is an indicator of ecosystem health—if manoomin is healthy so is the surrounding ecosystem. Unfortunately, this aquatic grass has declined across much of its range due to multiple human-caused stressors, including changes to water levels in the lakes and streams in which manoomin grows. Climate change will further disrupt water levels, most directly through changes in precipitation, but also through climate-driven...
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Many animal species have unique characteristics that allow them to survive during winter. For example, the snowshoe hare changes its fur color from brown to white to camouflage better in winter months, and the ruffed grouse roosts under the snow to stay warm and hidden in winter. These winter-adapted species, however, are facing new challenges as climate change is resulting in shorter winters and rapid declines in snowpack. Shorter winters pose a significant threat to winter-adapted species that are used to living in, under, or on top of a protective blanket of snow. Wildlife managers are tasked with conserving these species, yet studies understanding how specific management actions can enhance species' ability...
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Climate change is making coldwater stream fish and their habitats more vulnerable than ever. In the Midwest, warming stream temperatures threaten recreational fishing for brook trout in their native range around the Great Lakes. To ensure that brook trout populations will persist into the future, it is crucial to focus management on areas where brook trout populations are most resilient, and to conduct landscape-level management to increase their resiliency. Resilient coldwater streams have thermal refugia areas where stream temperatures stay colder thanks to influxes of cold water from other water sources, such as groundwater. Existing methods to identify these thermal refugia have relied on either thermal gauges,...
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Moose are an economically and culturally important species in Minnesota. Like many species, however, moose are experiencing reductions in distribution and abundance across the Midwest as a result of climate change and habitat loss. Moose populations have declined by 60% since 2006, in part because of thermal heat stress in warming summers and increased frequency of contact with white-tailed deer that transmit fatal parasites. Forest managers are looking for actionable strategies to improve moose habitat in the near-term while also planning for future forest conditions in a warming climate. To address this need, this project brings together researchers and managers to examine how climate adaptive forest management...
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Global concern of an “insect apocalypse” is fueling demand for large-scale, long-term studies of insect population dynamics. Butterflies associated with open habitat, like prairies and grasslands, have long been identified as species of concern in the Midwest. The iconic monarch butterfly, which serves as a flagship for both migration and insect conservation, is one such species of conservation concern and is currently under consideration for federal listing under the Endangered Species Act. Recent analyses suggest that common, widespread species may also be declining. Yet robust evidence for general declines is patchy and the causes are difficult to discern. Understanding the relative importance of climate, land...
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Many amphibian species are highly susceptible to changes in precipitation timing and volume because of their reliance on intermittently flooded surface water pools, which are primarily filled through snowmelt and precipitation runoff. ​With increasing evapotranspiration (i.e. transfer of water from land to the atmosphere) due to climate change, the timing and availability of water in key amphibian reproductive habitats will likely be altered. This project will assess the future risk to amphibian populations in the Midwest, identifying present and future richness hotspots and those wetland species and populations most at risk of habitat loss due to climate change. The research team will model landscape level changes...
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Species Status Assessments provide vital information to US Fish and Wildlife for improving considerations for climate change impacts. In the constrained timeline of species listing decisions, it is not always feasible to conduct lengthy quantitative analyses so there is a need for better resources to provide input for rapid decision-making. In this project, the team will work with species status assessment teams to address direct and indirect effects of climate change on priority species chosen through conversations with US Fish and Wildlife regional offices. The researchers will implement a developed approach to rapidly and comprehensively assess how climate change may impact species by integrating published literature...
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Wetland conservation in the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) is a priority for Federal, State, NGO, and Tribal land managers to support migratory bird habitat in Minnesota and Iowa. These wetlands, known as depressional wetlands, also provide ecosystem services associated with flood water storage and enhancing down-stream water quality by storing and processing nutrients. Understanding how conservation efforts and management strategies can impact both wildlife habitat and water quality/quantity issues in the UMRB is critical for helping this region adapt to future precipitation patterns. High intensity rainfall events can cause depressional wetlands to overflow and connect with Mississippi River tributaries....
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Coregonines are a sub-family of freshwater fishes within the well-known Salmonidae family. In the upper midwestern U.S., these fishes have provided a key food source to Native Americans for millennia and immigrants for the last several centuries. Since the mid-20th century, however, their diversity and abundance has declined owing to several anthropogenic stressors including overfishing, declining quality of key habitat (e.g., dams, eutrophication), and negative interactions with invasive species. Managers of inland lakes in Minnesota and of the Great Lakes in Michigan, Ontario, and New York, and several U.S. Tribes have undertaken various efforts to restore coregonines, including cisco (Coregonus artedi). For example,...
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Lake sturgeon are a fish of strong subsistence, cultural, and spiritual importance for many Tribal nations. But lake sturgeon are especially vulnerable to climate change given their unique life history and historical mass declines. Therefore, there is a great need to incorporate Tribal perspectives on lake sturgeon shifts and information needs into adaptation planning to conserve these fish in a changing climate. This project aims to synthesize documented and projected potentiall effects of climate change on lake sturgeon; synthesize indigenous perspectives and experiences with lake sturgeon in a changing climate; and identify information needs, future research avenues, and potential adaptation options to support...
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Black ash wetlands occupy over 1.2 million hectares of forest in the Great Lakes region, providing habitat for unique and diverse wildlife communities. In these wetlands, black ash trees are a foundational species, regulating all aspects of ecosystem function, and are also an important cultural resource for Native Americans, specifically for basket-makers. Black ash wetlands are critically threatened by the interaction of climate change and the invasive emerald ash borer (EAB), which is expected to spread northward and westward into large expanses of black ash with warming winters. These threats present a significant challenge for long-term conservation efforts to preserve ecosystem functions, cultural lifeways,...
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Under shifting temperatures and precipitation patterns, Midwestern states are increasingly at risk from non-native invasive plants that are changing the composition, structure, and function of native forests. Non-native invasive plants impact the resilience and sustainability of forest communities by outcompeting native tree seedlings and diverse flowering plants, and by altering ecologically important patterns of natural processes like fire, wind, drought, and flooding. Land managers facing this threat are having to not only consider current non-native invasive plants within their landscapes but also future impacts with the expansion of these plants northward and westward under a changing climate, especially as...
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Rain-on-snow events occur when warm rain falls on an existing snowpack, causing rapid snowmelt that can lead to damaging floods, reduced spring and summer streamflow, and altered stream temperatures, with ecological, social, and economic consequences. Rain-on-snow events can result in a loss of riverine biodiversity, decreases in fisheries production, and degradation of stream habitat; water shortages for communities and reduced water quality; .and have repercussions for navigation and commercial transportation, hydroelectric power generation, recreation, invasive species control, and harbors and marinas. Considering the diverse impacts of rain-on-snow events, it is important to understand how rain-on-snow events...
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Stream fish are in peril from a changing climate, particularly for species with restricted distributions or populations on the southern edge of their range. For these fish, the opportunity to escape warming temperatures is limited by the network of stream channels accessible to them. To deal with temperatures beyond their physical capacity, fishes must move, adapt, or die. However, little is known for many of these species about their preferred temperatures, critical temperature limits, or capacity to adapt to or tolerate increasing temperatures. Researchers will measure the preferred temperatures and tolerance of two stream fish that are vulnerable to climate change: the Ozark Shiner and the Blacknose Shiner. The...
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Yellow perch and alewife are ecologically, economically, and culturally important fish species in Lake Michigan whose populations support recreational and commercial fisheries. However, both of these species’ populations have been in decline for over 20 years. This project seeks to understand the factors affecting variability in offspring survival of yellow perch and alewife in Lake Michigan in order to project survival under scenarios of future climate change. Like other fish species, yellow perch and alewives produce huge numbers of small offspring, but most die early in life. Small changes in survival at this early stage can have a strong impact on the number of fish that ultimately contribute to fisheries....
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Climate change presents new and compounding challenges to natural resource management. With shifting climate patterns, managers are confronted with difficult decisions on how to minimize climate impacts to habitats, infrastructure, and wildlife populations. Further, managers lack the information needed to make proactive management decisions. To address this problem, this project will develop a decision and adaptation framework to support site‐level decision‐making that facilitates thoughtful integration of climate change information into formal management and planning processes. In collaboration with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS), the proposed framework will integrate...
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The Prairie Pothole Region is recognized as one of the most productive areas for waterfowl in North America and supports an estimated 50–80 % of the continent’s duck population. This important habitat is threatened by climate change and continued land-use change. The goal of this research is to establish a framework for assessing future impacts of climate and land-use change on Prairie Pothole wetland ecosystems in Minnesota and Iowa to better assist wetland managers in planning conservation actions. Historically, the southeast portion of the US Prairie Pothole Region in Minnesota and Iowa has faced some of the greatest challenges in wetland conservation. While advances have been made to restore these habitats,...
map background search result map search result map Managing and Promoting the Resiliency of Winter-Adapted Species to Climate Change Understanding and Forecasting Potential Recruitment of Lake Michigan Fishes Can Climate Change Mitigation Through Forest Management Save the Moose in Minnesota? Modeling the Interaction of Forest Management and Climate Change on the Spread and Impact of Non-Native Invasive Plants Impacts of Climate Change on Vegetation, Ecohydrology, and Management of Manoomin (Wild Rice) Watersheds The Impact of Future Climate on Wetland Habitat in a Critical Migratory Waterfowl Corridor of the Prairie Pothole Region Linking Stream Fish Thermal Ecology and Adaptive Capacity to Inform Watershed-Based Management and Species Status Assessments Evaluating the Role of Climate on Midwestern Butterfly Trajectories, Monarch Declines, and the Broader “Insect Apocalypse” Evaluating How Changing Climate and Water Clarity Can Affect Restoration of Native Coregonine Fish in Midwestern Lakes Workshop: Natural Solutions to Ecological and Economic Problems Caused by Extreme Precipitation Events in the Upper Mississippi River Basin Identifying Thermal Refugia for Brook Trout Climate Adaptation in Coldwater Streams Assessing the Impacts of Emerald Ash Borer and Adaptation Strategies on Habitat Quality for At Risk Wildlife in Black Ash Forests Climate-Driven Connectivity Between Prairie-Pothole and Riparian Wetlands in the Upper Mississippi River Watershed: Implications for Wildlife Habitat and Water Quality Developing a Decision Making and Climate Adaptation Framework for National Wildlife Refuge System Managers in the Midwest The Combined Effects of Seasonal Climate and Extreme Precipitation on Flood Hazard in the Midwest Future of Aquatic Flows: Exploring Changes in Rain-On-Snow Events and Their Influence on Future Streamflows, Stream Temperatures, and Management Priorities in the Great Lakes Basin Mapping Effects of Wetland Change on Amphibians in the Upper Midwest Species Status Assessments in the Midwest State Wildlife Action Planning in the Midwest Indigenous Perspectives on Name/Lake Sturgeon and the Potential Impact of Climate Change Can Climate Change Mitigation Through Forest Management Save the Moose in Minnesota? Assessing the Impacts of Emerald Ash Borer and Adaptation Strategies on Habitat Quality for At Risk Wildlife in Black Ash Forests Identifying Thermal Refugia for Brook Trout Climate Adaptation in Coldwater Streams Modeling the Interaction of Forest Management and Climate Change on the Spread and Impact of Non-Native Invasive Plants Impacts of Climate Change on Vegetation, Ecohydrology, and Management of Manoomin (Wild Rice) Watersheds Linking Stream Fish Thermal Ecology and Adaptive Capacity to Inform Watershed-Based Management and Species Status Assessments Mapping Effects of Wetland Change on Amphibians in the Upper Midwest Managing and Promoting the Resiliency of Winter-Adapted Species to Climate Change Understanding and Forecasting Potential Recruitment of Lake Michigan Fishes Workshop: Natural Solutions to Ecological and Economic Problems Caused by Extreme Precipitation Events in the Upper Mississippi River Basin The Combined Effects of Seasonal Climate and Extreme Precipitation on Flood Hazard in the Midwest Future of Aquatic Flows: Exploring Changes in Rain-On-Snow Events and Their Influence on Future Streamflows, Stream Temperatures, and Management Priorities in the Great Lakes Basin Species Status Assessments in the Midwest Indigenous Perspectives on Name/Lake Sturgeon and the Potential Impact of Climate Change State Wildlife Action Planning in the Midwest Evaluating the Role of Climate on Midwestern Butterfly Trajectories, Monarch Declines, and the Broader “Insect Apocalypse” Developing a Decision Making and Climate Adaptation Framework for National Wildlife Refuge System Managers in the Midwest Climate-Driven Connectivity Between Prairie-Pothole and Riparian Wetlands in the Upper Mississippi River Watershed: Implications for Wildlife Habitat and Water Quality Evaluating How Changing Climate and Water Clarity Can Affect Restoration of Native Coregonine Fish in Midwestern Lakes The Impact of Future Climate on Wetland Habitat in a Critical Migratory Waterfowl Corridor of the Prairie Pothole Region