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Current climate models predict a shift to warmer, drier conditions in the southwestern US. While major shifts in plant distribution are expected to follow these climate changes, interactions among species and intraspecific genetic variation rarely have been incorporated into models of future plant distributions. We examined the drought-related mortality of pinyon pine (Pinus edulis) in northern Arizona focusing on trees that showed genetically-based resistance or susceptibility to a nonlethal herbivore, the shoot-boring moth, Dioryctria albovittella. Because moth resistant trees have outperformed susceptible trees during 20 years of study, and herbivory has been shown to increase drought related mortality, we expected...