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Water-resource managers need to forecast streamflow in the Lower Colorado River Basin to plan for water-resource projects and to operate reservoirs for water supply. Statistical forecasts of streamflow based on historical records of streamflow can be useful, but statistical assumptions, such as stationarity of flows, need to be evaluated. This study evaluated the relation between climatic fluctuations and stationarity and developed regression equations to forecast streamflow by using climatic fluctuations as explanatory variables. Climatic fluctuations were represented by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Historical streamflow within...
Human activities that may affect the flow of water through river systems include diversion of water from one river basin to another, creation of artificial reservoir storage, destruction of natural wetland storage, and land changes that alter rates of erosion, infiltration, overland flow, or evapotranspiration. The effects of these human actions influence not only long-term average flows, but the magnitude and frequency of droughts and floods and year-to-year and season-to-season flow variations. These effects, in turn, have a variety of direct effects on man, related to availability of reliable water supplies for in-stream and withdrawal uses and to magnitude and frequency of flood damages. They also affect geomorphic...
This article describes the development of a calibrated hydrologic model for the Blue River watershed (867 km2) in Summit County, Colorado. This watershed provides drinking water to over a third of Colorado?s population. However, more research on model calibration and development for small mountain watersheds is needed. This work required integration of subsurface and surface hydrology using GIS data, and included aspects unique to mountain watersheds such as snow hydrology, high ground-water gradients, and large differences in climate between the headwaters and outlet. Given the importance of this particular watershed as a major urban drinking-water source, the rapid development occurring in small mountain watersheds,...
This paper describes how a hydrologic model proved to be a valuable tool to help interested parties understand impacts to four threatened and endangered fish species in the Upper Colorado River. In 1994, the Ute Water Conservancy District initiated permitting and design of the Plateau Creek pipeline replacement. The project was considered a major Federal action and therefore subject to the National Environmental Policy Act. Under Section 7 of the Endangered Species Act, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) entered the process to develop a Biological Opinion (BO) and determined that the project could potentially impact the endangered fish in the 15-mile reach of the Colorado River. The Section 7 consultation...
We review published analyses of the effects of climate change on goods and services provided by freshwater ecosystems in the United States. Climate-induced changes must be assessed in the context of massive anthropogenic changes in water quantity and quality resulting from altered patterns of land use, water withdrawal, and species invasions; these may dwarf or exacerbate climate-induced changes. Water to meet instream needs is competing with other uses of water, and that competition is likely to be increased by climate change. We review recent predictions of the impacts of climate change on aquatic ecosystems in eight regions of North America. Impacts include warmer temperatures that alter lake mixing regimes and...