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Mayflies (Ephemeroptera), stoneflies (Plecoptera), and caddisflies (Trichoptera) (a.k.a. EPT taxa) are the most environmentally sensitive of freshwater insects. They are utilized the world over as indicators of water quality in flowing waters. Their decline has been documented in Asia, Europe, and North America. A 220,321 record dataset of new and museum EPT specimen records covering much of the Midwest and Maximum Entropy (Maxent) software were used construct to current and future, climate influenced distribution models. Nearly 100 physical and historic vegetation variables and 9 BIOCLIM variables derived from downscaled climate data for the region were employed in this process. A total of 426 EPT species were...
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A key challenge in aquatic restoration efforts is documenting locations where ecological connectivity is disrupted in water bodies that are dammed or crossed by roads (road crossings). To prioritize actions aimed at restoring connectivity, we argue that there is a need for systematic inventories of these potential barriers at regional and national scales. Here, we address this limitation for the North American Great Lakes basin by compiling the best available spatial data on the locations of dams and road crossings. Our spatial database documents 38 times as many road crossings as dams in the Great Lakes basin, and case studies indicate that, on average, only 36% of road crossings in the area are fully passable...
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The Nature Conservancy - Great Lakes Program is leading the development of a scalable (Great Lakes wide, individual lake basin, to coastal reach within a lake basin) rule-based spatial model for ranking the relative importance of coastal lands and waters as habitat for migrating birds. Results will guide conservation actions including land acquisition, land and water management and restoration, and development of wind energy facilities. Specifically, the team will: 1) refine, create and integrate migratory bird stopover habitat models which depict the distribution of potential stopover sites along or near the shorelines of Lakes Michigan, Huron, Erie, and Ontario; and, 2) develop an online portal that will deliver...
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Researchers assessed how an expansion of forest reserves and climate-adaptive management may improve ecological connectivity and resilience under different climate scenarios. Resilience is measured as the capacity for these systems to maintain extant forest communities and aboveground live biomass. Forest landscape change was simulated via a spatially explicit forest ecosystem model, LANDIS-II. Simulations covered areas in northern Minnesota and northern lower Michigan that represent northern Great Lakes forest types. Restoring and maintaining ecological connectivity is one of the primary climate change adaptation strategies available to land managers, in addition to silvicultural practices. This study is...
Forest-dominated landscapes provide a wide range of ecosystem services to many different sectors of society, including forest products (e.g., timber), recreational opportunities and support of tourism, carbon sequestration, and habitat for fish and wildlife and other biodiversity. However, many forests and embedded aquatic systems in the Northwoods are in degraded condition due to land and resource management decisions, impacts of over-abundant deer populations, and the spread of nonnative forest pests and pathogens that have led to “surprise” losses of key tree species. The long-term viability of these vast expanses of forest-dominated systems has great potential to be further compromised as climatic changes...
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Developing conservation strategies for threatened species increasingly requires understanding vulnerabilities to climate change, in terms of both demographic sensitivities to climatic and other environmental factors, and exposure to variability in those factors over time and space. Weconducted a range-wide, spatially explicit climate change vulnerability assessment for Eastern Massasauga (Sistrurus catenatus), a declining endemic species in a region showing strong environmental change. Using active season and winter adult survival estimates derived from 17 data sets throughout the species’ range, we identified demographic sensitivities to winter drought, maximum precipitation during the summer, and the proportion...
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With the ultimate goal of conserving and restoring threatened native grassland prairies and the wildlife that depend on them, the National Audubon Society (Audubon) is facilitating a landscape conservation design for the grassland birds in the greater Chicago region. As a first step in this process standardized avian point count surveys conducted primarily by citizen volunteers were combined with landcover composition and configuration, soils, and vegetation productivity data to model abundance of five grassland bird species. Models were updated with additional data and expert review in 2015 and now provide map outputs of existing grassland bird habitat and population estimates for species of conservation concern...
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Ecological connectivity between the Great Lakes and their tributaries is widely impaired, and many agencies and organizations are currently investing in restoring these connections to enhance target fish and wildlife populations. To assist in targeting these investments, we have been developing spatial data on the location and attributes of barriers (dams and road-stream crossings) and fish breeding habitat throughout the Great Lakes basin to analyze the optimum strategy for enhancing connectivity and restoring fish migrations. The proposed work will result in guidance for barrier restoration at scales from individual watersheds to the entire basin, refine methodologies for spatial analysis of barriers, and provide...
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This project directly addresses the need for integration of climate change information and strategies into Wisconsin’s Wildlife Action Plan (WWAP) as identified by Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Land Conservation Cooperative. Wisconsin’s WWAP is used as a major conservation planning tool by state agencies and partners, but this tool currently lacks information on climate change. At the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WDNR), the WWAP informs master planning for state‐owned properties, influences land acquisition priorities, and provides direction for management, inventory, and research. As a user‐friendly, detailed, web‐based resource, the WWAP is also available to other conservation organizations and private...
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This project will improve tribal and First Nation engagement in cooperative natural resource conservation efforts. Researchers are fostering networking among tribes, First Nations and other relevant partners in the upper Midwest – Great Lakes region, and engaging tribal and First Nation representatives in the development of a set of principles and strategies for their authentic, robust inclusion in regional resource conservation cooperative frameworks. The project is conducting an environmental scan of current climate and landscape change planning initiatives as well as mitigation and resilience-building projects being implemented by tribes and First Nations in the region. The results will lead to broader inclusion...
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This scenario planning decision support tool for the Kankakee River basin as a first case study/proof-of concept. Hydrology models, both surface water and groundwater, and ecology of the Kankakee River watershed will be combined to evaluate the effects of habitat restoration on water suppy ecosystem services, agricultural irrigation demands, urbanization, and waterfowl habitat, and sportsman and recreational user interests. Various scenarios for restoration identified with peer input were tested for the watershed. Each scenario results in different individual and aggregate values for ground water recharge, surface water storage, waterfowl habitat, sportsman and recreational use, and agricultural capacity. Some...
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This project connects scientists and managers from federal, tribal and state agencies and nongovernmental organizations to exchange information and establish common priorities for management of terrestrial wildlife populations. To achieve these goals, we are organizing interactive workshops with partners across the region. In year 2, we will assess the risk posed by climate change and other major stressors to a subset of priority species (as identified by regional partners). This assessment will integrate available data and scientific understanding in a transparent process, detailing assumptions and uncertainties to project population-level responses of target species to climate change.
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The concept of adaptive management provides a set of good business principles to guide strategic habitat conservation, but these principles are only useful if they are put into practice through a complimentary set of business operations. To that end, if conservation is going to be successful operating at landscape scales, the conservation community must start thinking and functioning like a conservation enterprise. Much more emphasis must be placed on developing and supporting business operations that facilitate the flow of information and other resources at landscape scales. Just like successful national and global businesses, we need to develop an information supply chain to support the communication, coordination,...
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For management agencies, there is a growing need to understand (1) how climate change affects and will continue to affect wildlife populations of conservation concern, and (2) how the negative Upper Midwest Great Lakes Landscape Conservation Cooperative Request for Funding 2013 demographic effects of climate change can be mitigated through management strategies. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment (CCVA) integrates available data and scientific understanding in a transparent process, details assumptions and uncertainties, and ultimately projects population-level responses of target species to future climate change. Climate change is already influencing distributions and abundances of species throughout North...
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In many large ecosystems, conservation projects are selected by a diverse set of actors operating independently at spatial scales ranging from local to international. Although small-scale decision making can leverage local expert knowledge, it also may be an inefficient means of achieving large-scale objectives if piecemeal efforts are poorly coordinated. Here, we assess the value of coordinating efforts in both space and time to maximize the restoration of aquatic ecosystem connectivity. Habitat fragmentation is a leading driver of declining biodiversity and ecosystem services in rivers worldwide, and we simultaneously evaluate optimal barrier removal strategies for 661 tributary rivers of the Laurentian Great...
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The annual distributions of waterfowl during autumn-winter can influence ecological, environmental, cultural, and economic relationships. We used previously developed Weather Severity Indices (WSI) that explained migration by dabbling ducks in eastern North America and weather data from the North American Regional Reanalysis to develop an open-access internet-based tool (i.e, WSI app) to visualize and query WSI data. We used data generated by the WSI app to determine if the weather known to elicit southerly migration by dabbling ducks had changed, October – April 1979 – 2014.We detected that the amount of area in the Mississippi and Atlantic Flyways with weather severe enough to cause southerly migration decreased...
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The study seeks to provide a retrospective analysis of the relationships among bird abundance and distribution and changes in land cover and climate in the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. The resultant models will be used to provide spatially explicit forecasts of future avian responses. Using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) and a hierarchical modeling framework that accounts for imperfect detection during surveys, species distribution and abundance is estimated. Historic aerial photos are being digitized and classified to measure landscape covariates. Once species-specific relationships between distribution parameters (i.e., occupancy, colonization, extinction) and landscape covariates...
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The project had four explicit objectives: 1) Conduct a climate vulnerability assessment of Species of Greatest Need of Conservation and major habitat types 2) Identify conservation strategies that increase resiliency or adaptive capacity, or mitigate the effects of climate change 3) Outline an adaptive management approach for informing management decisions 4) Recommend changes to existing monitoring programs and identify research needs
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The concept of adaptive management provides a set of good business principles to guide strategic habitat conservation, but these principles are only useful if they are put into practice through a complimentary set of business operations. To that end, if conservation is going to be successful operating at landscape scales, the conservation community must start thinking and functioning like a conservation enterprise. Much more emphasis must be placed on developing and supporting business operations that facilitate the flow of information and other resources at landscape scales. Just like successful national and global businesses, we need to develop an information supply chain to support the communication, coordination,...
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Within the time frame of the longevity of tree species, climate change will change faster than the ability of natural tree migration. Migration lags may result in reduced productivity and reduced diversity in forests under current management and climate change. We evaluated the efficacy of planting climate-suitable tree species (CSP), those tree species with current or historic distributions immediately south of a focal landscape, to maintain or increase aboveground biomass, productivity, and species and functional diversity. We modeled forest change with the LANDIS-II forest simulation model for 100 years (2000–2100) at a 2-ha cell resolution and five-year time steps within two landscapes in the Great Lakes region...
map background search result map search result map Great Lakes Information Management and Delivery System Manajiwin: Respecting tribes, First nations and cultural resources in cooperative landscape and climate change decision-making Identification & Risk Assessment of Most Climate Vulnerable Terrestrial Species and Natural Communities and Climate Vulnerability Assessment in the UMGL LCC Predicting climate change effects on riverine aquatic insects in the Upper Midwest Re-establishing ecological connectivity between the Great Lakes and their tributaries: Prioritization in a complex system Assessment of Waterfowl Habitat Restoration as an Adaptive Mechanism for Water Sustainability in the Grand Kankakee River Watershed Grassland Bird Conservation Design in the Chicago Region Climate Change Impacts on Wisconsin's Natural Communities and Conservation Opportunities Areas: Updating Wisconsin's Wildlife Action Plan Report: Building partnerships and establishing consensus on regional priorities across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Landscape Cooperative Business Plan: Great Lakes Information Management and Delivery System Aquatic Connectivity business plan Publication: Restoring aquatic ecosystem connectivity requires expanding inventories of both dams and road crossings Publication: Enhancing ecosystem restoration efficiency through spatial and temporal coordination Report: Use of an open-access internet-based tool to estimate changes in Weather Severity Indices for dabbling ducks in eastern North America Report: On-a-wing and a (GIS) Layer: Prioritizing migratory bird habitat along Great Lakes shoreline Report: Distribution and abundance of breeding birds in the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region as influenced by climate and land cover change Publication: Demographic consequences of climate change and land cover help explain a history of extirpations and range contraction in a declining snake species Publication: Climate-suitable planting as a strategy for maintaining forest productivity and functional diversity Report: Scenarios for forest reserve expansion and adaptive management under alternative climate change scenarios in the northern Great Lakes Report: Adapting Conservation to a Changing Climate: An Update to the Illinois Wildlife Action Plan Assessment of Waterfowl Habitat Restoration as an Adaptive Mechanism for Water Sustainability in the Grand Kankakee River Watershed Grassland Bird Conservation Design in the Chicago Region Report: Adapting Conservation to a Changing Climate: An Update to the Illinois Wildlife Action Plan Climate Change Impacts on Wisconsin's Natural Communities and Conservation Opportunities Areas: Updating Wisconsin's Wildlife Action Plan Report: Scenarios for forest reserve expansion and adaptive management under alternative climate change scenarios in the northern Great Lakes Publication: Climate-suitable planting as a strategy for maintaining forest productivity and functional diversity Report: Building partnerships and establishing consensus on regional priorities across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Landscape Cooperative Great Lakes Information Management and Delivery System Manajiwin: Respecting tribes, First nations and cultural resources in cooperative landscape and climate change decision-making Identification & Risk Assessment of Most Climate Vulnerable Terrestrial Species and Natural Communities and Climate Vulnerability Assessment in the UMGL LCC Predicting climate change effects on riverine aquatic insects in the Upper Midwest Re-establishing ecological connectivity between the Great Lakes and their tributaries: Prioritization in a complex system Business Plan: Great Lakes Information Management and Delivery System Aquatic Connectivity business plan Publication: Restoring aquatic ecosystem connectivity requires expanding inventories of both dams and road crossings Publication: Enhancing ecosystem restoration efficiency through spatial and temporal coordination Report: On-a-wing and a (GIS) Layer: Prioritizing migratory bird habitat along Great Lakes shoreline Report: Distribution and abundance of breeding birds in the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region as influenced by climate and land cover change Publication: Demographic consequences of climate change and land cover help explain a history of extirpations and range contraction in a declining snake species Report: Use of an open-access internet-based tool to estimate changes in Weather Severity Indices for dabbling ducks in eastern North America