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Drought events have cost the U.S. nearly $245 billion since 1980, with costs ranging from $2 to $44 billion in any given year. However, these socio-economic losses are not the only impacts of drought. Ecosystems, fish, wildlife, and plants also suffer, and these types of drought impacts are becoming more commonplace. Further, ecosystems that recover from drought are now doing so under different climate conditions than they have experienced in the past few centuries. As temperature and precipitation patterns change, “transformational drought”, or drought events that can permanently and irreversibly alter ecosystems – such as forests converting to grasslands – are a growing threat. This type of drought has cascading...
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The forum will have two major goals:. First, to share the successes and learnings of past LCC investments on the subjects of Traditional Ecological Knowledge, subsistence resources, and climate adaptation plans. Second, to identify gaps and future needs as this information becomes useful to inform land and water use planning across the region including the Great Northern LCC and the Great Basin LCC and ATNI.FY2017none
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This project will create a targeted and easily understandable guide to tools that support landscape-level planning in the face of climate change for NPLCC partners. The guide will build on previous NPLCC research on decision support needs with an emphasis on tools currently in use in the region. A survey of NPLCC partners will discover who is currently using or planning to use tools in the region, tools they are using, how well these tools are meeting their needs, and regional and outside experts engaged in tool use. Additional tools research will provide information on tools not currently in use in the region that could also provide needed functionality.
Categories: Data, Project; Types: Map Service, OGC WFS Layer, OGC WMS Layer, OGC WMS Service; Tags: 2013, Academics & scientific researchers, Ak-1, Ak-1, Ak-1, All tags...
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Water temperatures affect the distribution, growth potential, and productivity of stream fishes that are targeted in subsistence, sport, and commercial fisheries across Alaska, making stream and lake temperature data critical for managing freshwater resources. Evaluating the variation in temperatures across Alaska will improve understanding of impacts of both climate change and development on freshwater habitats. However, collection and dissemination of water temperature data is an ongoing challenge across Alaska. To address this challenge, the research team will increase cooperation and coordination among data collectors in Interior Alaska by conducting an in-person stream temperature trainingand adapting the...
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In coastal Alaska, changes in snow, ice, and extreme weather events threaten human communities, critical infrastructure, valuable natural resources, and traditional, subsistence hunting and fishing lifestyles. Understanding how changing climate conditions impact Alaska’s coastal ecosystems, and how these changes may be tied to the ability of coastal communities to adapt to changing conditions, has been identified as a priority question in the state. In order to identify knowledge gaps and resource needs related to adaptation and resilience in coastal Alaska, the Alaska Climate Science Center partnered with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the Aleutian Pribilof Islands Association, and a dozen other entities...
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Understanding how snow will change over the coming century is vital in understanding environmental changes across Alaska. Changes in snow are also economically important to many sectors, from recreation to commercial fishing. An earlier set of rain-snow partitioning and snowfall equivalent projections based on downscaled CMIP3 temperature and precipitation projections have been used extensively. In this project, we developed updated projections for the fraction of precipitation days that are snowy (vs. rainy) and the amount of precipitation that likely falls as snow to be consistent with the newest downscaled temperature and precipitation released by SNAP. The outputs are decadal monthly averages. The updated snow...
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In Alaska, increased wildfire activity has been linked to warming temperatures. Summers with extreme wildfire activity threaten life and property, clog the air with smoke, and challenge the state’s wildland firefighters. While the largest fires are often started by lightning and burn in remote areas, these fires require significant resources to fight when they threaten life and property. Increased wildfire activity is projected to continue in Alaska, as climate conditions change. Therefore, understanding how to best calculate fire risk based on short and long-term weather conditions is needed to improve fire season forecasts. Currently, Alaska’s fire managers rely on the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index to monitor...
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The Klamath Basin in Oregon and California is home to a rich abundance of natural and cultural resources, many of which are vulnerable to present and future climate change. Climate change also threatens traditional ways of life for tribal communities, who have deep connections to the region. This project sought to increase the effectiveness of regional climate change adaptation and planning by (1) developing ways to integrate traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) with western science in decision making, (2) building partnerships between tribal, academic, and government institutions, and (3) increasing future capacity to respond to climate change by engaging tribal youth. Through this project, the Quartz Valley...
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Coastal flooding and erosion caused by storms and sea-level rise threaten infrastructure and public safety in Alaska Native communities. Though the problem is well known, there are few tools that can assess local vulnerability to coastal flood hazards. Even fewer tools can be customized with specific community information to support local adaptation planning. The main goal of this project is to use the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) platform to co-produce customized local flood hazard maps and online tools to support the development of culturally-appropriate and cost-efficient adaptation strategies in Alaska. The project team will work with federal, state, and local community representatives to understand...
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Agriculture in Alaska is climate-limited. Factors such as low heat energy, short growing seasons, and cold winters prevent the survival of many crops. While considerable research has gone into assessing how to overcome some of these limitations, results suggest that climate change is already altering the equation, and will likely continue to do so. Some research suggests crop production for some varieties might advance northward in the state, leading to increases in yields and new varieties becoming viable. However, it’s also projected that water stress may become an increasing challenge facing farmers. Further, some crops, such as the burgeoning peony market, are dependent on Alaska’s cool climate and late summer...
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Nearshore marine ecosystems in Alaska and Hawai‘i rely heavily on organic materials and nutrients delivered by rivers and streams. It is hypothesized that the magnitude and timing of stream flows influences this delivery of materials to coastal ecosystems. However, despite previous research on the topic, there is still considerable uncertainty about how stream flow may influence these land-to-water (“ridge-to-reef") linkages, and how climate change induced shifts in runoff may ripple across ecosystem boundaries to influence estuary and nearshore marine ecosystems and species of cultural and commercial importance (e.g., Pacific salmon, gobies, and coral reefs). This project is a collaborative study to examine...
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Wild berries are a valued traditional food for tribes of the Chugachmiut Tribal Consortium (Chenega Bay, Eyak, Nanwalek, Port Graham, Qutekcak, Tatitlek, and Valdez) in the rural Chugach region of south-central Alaska. Berries supply essential nutrients that prevent heart disease and cancer, are used for medicinal purposes, and are the only sweet food in the traditional Native diet. Hence, berries have both nutritional and cultural significance. From 2008 to 2012, wild berry populations in the Chugach region were decimated by an unexpected outbreak of moths, thought to have been brought about by shifting climate (i.e., warmer temperatures allowed a greater number of moths to survive the winter). This outbreak...
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Steep, mountainous watersheds, dramatic climate gradients, and tight links between the land and sea are common features of both the Pacific Islands and Southeast Alaska. In these "ridge-to-reef" and “icefield-to-ocean" ecosystems, environmental changes that occur at higher elevations have downstream impacts on the waters below. Today, these two ecosystems are undergoing changes in climate that are significantly impacting the terrestrial, freshwater, and coastal ecosystems that communities rely on for food, water, recreation, and tourism. For example, changing weather patterns are leading to more frequent and severe extreme storms, atmospheric rivers, droughts, and heat waves. Communities in both regions have deep...
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The role of lynx dispersal in maintaining their populations at the landscape scale is unclear. A large proportion of local lynx populations are known to disperse following a snowshoe hare population crash, but whether these dispersal events contribute to the cyclic dynamics of neighboring populations is not well understood. If lynx dispersal does play an important role in lynx population dynamics then the conservation of dispersal corridors is critical to maintaining those dynamics. However, we currently have no information on the habitat requirements of dispersing lynx in relation to human land use, such as housing developments, road building, timber harvest, and mining, all of which could have a substantial impact...
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Migratory birds are important for recreation and tourism, contributing to a vibrant birdwatching industry in Alaska. Every spring, hundreds of birds migrate to their summer breeding grounds in Alaska and northern Canada. Their arrival is timed with the height of the spring green-up of plants, which provide the food necessary for birds to reproduce and raise their young. However, over the last fifty years, warming temperatures in Alaska as a result of climate change have prompted an earlier transition from winter to spring. The purpose of this project was to examine whether there have been changes in the timing of spring green-up in recent years (1985-2009) and, if so, whether migratory birds are adapting their migration...
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Actionable science has evolved rapidly over the last decade, and the Climate Adaptation Science Center (CASC) network has established itself as a leader in the field. The practice of actionable science is generally described as user-focused, action-oriented science that addresses pressing real-world climate adaptation challenges. It is also sometimes referred to as usable science, translational ecology, and coproduction. Successfully carrying out actionable science projects requires a range of skills, mindsets, and techniques in addition to scientific knowledge. Those skills can include mutual learning with stakeholders, attention to social and political context, iterative creative problem-solving, and interdisciplinary...
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Alaska’s Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) and Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (YKD) provide essential habitat for wildlife of management interest, including diverse communities of shorebirds and waterfowl. The low-lying ACP region is located on the North Slope of Alaska, and is rich with shallow lakes and ponds that form as a result of permafrost freeze-thaw cycles. This region is a primary nesting site for many migratory birds. The YKD, meanwhile, is a vast wetland/tundra landscape on Alaska’s remote western coast. One of the largest deltas in the world, the YKD supports millions of nesting and migrating waterfowl and shorebirds, and is the largest goose nesting habitat in North America. As climate conditions change and permafrost...
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Glaciers are a central component to the hydrology of many areas in Alaska and the Pacific Northwest. Glacier melt plays a crucial role in the movement of nutrients through a landscape and into the ocean, and the flow of water into streams that sustain many species. As air temperatures rise, increased rates of glacier melt may have significant impacts to the hydrology and ecology in these areas. This project aims to broaden our understanding of the role of glaciers in the hydrology of Alaska and Washington state and incorporate this knowledge into two types of models that simulate past and future scenarios of water flow. The project team aims to develop a public web portal to allow users to explore content, access...
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The Gulf of Alaska is one of the most productive marine ecosystems on Earth, supporting salmon fisheries that alone provide large economic benefits to Southeast Alaska. The region also has a vibrant and growing tourism industry. Glaciers are central to many of the area’s natural processes and economic activities, but the rates of glacier loss in Alaska are among the highest on Earth. Glacier loss threatens to significantly change the amount and timing of nutrients delivered by streams to near-shore habitats. Changes in glacier runoff into the ocean may also impact coastal currents that contribute to vibrant nearshore marine ecosystems. Improving our understanding of how ecosystems depend on glaciers and what glacier...
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Changing climate in the “Ridge-to-Reef" (R2R) and “Icefield-to-Ocean" (I2O) ecosystems of Hawai‘i and Southeast Alaska is expected to influence freshwater resources, extreme precipitation events, intensity of storms, and drought. Changes in these regions will not be uniform, rather they will depend on elevation and watershed location due to their steep-gradient terrains. A better understanding of expected future climate conditions in these regions is essential for natural resource managers to make informed climate adaptation decisions amid a changing environment. The Pacific Islands and Alaska Climate Adaptation Science Centers (PI and AK CASCs) are uniquely positioned to address these issues as they have previously...